2021 NFLTM Player Projections
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How we did with our 2020 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on 70-75% of the players.

Last season, our Draft Advisor ranked Cam Ackers, David Johnson, Emmanuel Sanders, Tyler Lockett 1 round ahead of their ADP, Marvin Jones, Jonnu Smith 2 rounds ahead of their ADP, Ryan Tannehill, Brandon Aiyuk, & Corey Davis 4 rounds ahead of their ADP, and Logan Thomas, Cole Beasley & Russell Gage 7+ rounds ahead of their ADP. These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2020.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2020: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 20 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

Running Backs:  29 out of top 40 = 70% correct

Wide Receivers: 44 out of top 60 = 75% correct

Tight Ends: 21 out of top 30 = 80% correct

Place Kickers: 17 out of the top 25 = 64% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years: 20/19/18/17/16/15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/04/03/02

A look back: 2020 Quarterback Projections - 73 % Success

  2019 2020 2020 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Josh Allen 20.1 17.1 DOWN 25.0 UP
Aaron Rodgers 20.0 16.1 DOWN 24.2 UP
Kyler Murray 20.1 18.6 DOWN 24.2 UP
Deshaun Watson 24.2 18.1 DOWN 23.3 DOWN
Patrick Mahomes 23.5 28.1 UP 24.8 UP
Russell Wilson 23.3 19.0 DOWN 22.9 DOWN
Tom Brady 19.0 15.4 DOWN 21.2 UP
Ryan Tannehill 21.3 16.1 DOWN 21.2 DOWN
Lamar Jackson 30.1 22.1 DOWN 22.6 DOWN
Kirk Cousins 18.9 15.4 DOWN 19.1 UP
Matt Ryan 21.3 16.3 DOWN 17.9 DOWN
Derek Carr 18.2 14.1 DOWN 17.9 DOWN
Ben Roethlisberger 8.0 16.2 UP 17.7 UP
Matthew Stafford 24.8 16.9 DOWN 16.2 DOWN
Baker Mayfield 16.8 14.8 DOWN 15.8 DOWN
Cam Newton 13.0 15.5 UP 16.6 UP
Jared Goff 19.0 16.4 DOWN 16.4 DOWN
Teddy Bridgewater 11.6 13.6 UP 16.3 UP
Philip Rivers 17.9 14.5 DOWN 15.0 DOWN
Drew Brees 23.2 16.9 DOWN 17.8 DOWN
Carson Wentz 20.4 16.1 DOWN 16.4 DOWN
Daniel Jones 20.2 15.9 DOWN 13.6 DOWN
Drew Lock 16.0 14.0 DOWN 14.3 DOWN
Gardner Minshew II 19.3 15.0 DOWN 18.4 DOWN
Mitchell Trubisky 15.7 8.6 DOWN 15.6 DOWN
Taysom Hill 5.3 3.2 DOWN 8.9 UP
Ryan Fitzpatrick 18.6 5.5 DOWN 16.3 DOWN
Andy Dalton 18.6 2.1 DOWN 12.6 DOWN
Sam Darnold 16.8 13.5 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Dak Prescott 24.3 19.1 DOWN 25.9 UP
Nick Mullens 0.0 0.0 DOWN 12.2 UP

A look back: 2020 Running Back Projections - 70 % Success

  2019 2020 2020 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Derrick Henry 20.1 16.0 DOWN 19.8 DOWN
Alvin Kamara 17.9 17.6 DOWN 19.7 UP
Dalvin Cook 21.1 17.8 DOWN 21.0 DOWN
Aaron Jones 19.9 15.6 DOWN 15.1 DOWN
David Montgomery 10.9 11.7 UP 14.1 UP
Josh Jacobs 14.9 15.9 UP 13.5 DOWN
Nick Chubb 16.3 14.7 DOWN 16.1 DOWN
Kareem Hunt 12.6 11.1 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Ezekiel Elliott 19.8 18.4 DOWN 12.0 DOWN
Melvin Gordon III 15.6 13.6 DOWN 11.6 DOWN
Kenyan Drake 15.3 15.2 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Ronald Jones II 10.6 9.4 DOWN 11.6 UP
Chris Carson 16.1 13.8 DOWN 12.6 DOWN
Mike Davis 1.0 0.0 DOWN 10.0 UP
David Johnson 11.1 13.8 UP 12.4 UP
Miles Sanders 13.7 15.7 UP 11.9 DOWN
Todd Gurley II 14.7 13.7 DOWN 9.2 DOWN
Jeff Wilson Jr. 4.7 0.0 DOWN 12.1 UP
James Conner 14.8 14.1 DOWN 10.0 DOWN
Nyheim Hines 6.8 7.3 UP 8.0 UP
Myles Gaskin 4.4 0.0 DOWN 12.7 UP
Gus Edwards 5.9 0.0 DOWN 7.6 UP
Wayne Gallman 5.0 0.0 DOWN 7.7 UP
Chase Edmonds 6.4 0.0 DOWN 7.2 UP
Darrell Henderson Jr. 1.7 8.0 UP 7.6 UP
J.D. McKissic 5.3 0.0 DOWN 7.1 UP
Latavius Murray 9.8 8.9 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Giovani Bernard 4.4 0.0 DOWN 7.1 UP
Adrian Peterson 10.1 0.0 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Austin Ekeler 19.6 15.0 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Devin Singletary 12.5 11.4 DOWN 6.7 DOWN
Leonard Fournette 17.4 12.0 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Tony Pollard 5.9 0.0 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Jamaal Williams 10.4 6.5 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Malcolm Brown 4.2 8.3 UP 5.5 UP
Damien Harris 0.3 5.6 UP 8.6 UP
Frank Gore 5.9 0.0 DOWN 5.7 DOWN
Raheem Mostert 10.6 12.5 UP 10.7 UP
Alexander Mattison 5.4 9.9 UP 5.7 UP
Brian Hill 5.6 0.0 DOWN 4.5 DOWN

A look back: 2020 Wide Receiver Projections - 75 % Success

  2019 2020 2020 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Davante Adams 17.8 17.2 DOWN 17.5 DOWN
Tyreek Hill 15.7 16.4 UP 16.1 UP
Stefon Diggs 14.5 12.6 DOWN 12.6 DOWN
Calvin Ridley 15.0 14.8 DOWN 12.8 DOWN
DK Metcalf 11.9 13.6 UP 11.9 DOWN
Mike Evans 17.8 15.0 DOWN 11.2 DOWN
Adam Thielen 11.4 14.7 UP 11.9 UP
DeAndre Hopkins 17.6 17.0 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
A.J. Brown 13.6 14.6 UP 12.4 DOWN
Tyler Lockett 14.7 13.8 DOWN 10.3 DOWN
Allen Robinson II 15.9 15.0 DOWN 10.1 DOWN
Robert Woods 15.5 14.4 DOWN 9.8 DOWN
Marvin Jones Jr. 14.9 12.3 DOWN 9.5 DOWN
Brandin Cooks 8.4 12.6 UP 10.1 UP
Keenan Allen 16.4 14.0 DOWN 10.5 DOWN
D.J. Moore 15.5 15.3 DOWN 9.7 DOWN
Amari Cooper 15.4 14.5 DOWN 8.9 DOWN
Terry McLaurin 13.7 13.6 DOWN 9.3 DOWN
Nelson Agholor 8.5 2.3 DOWN 8.6 UP
JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.6 14.9 UP 8.6 DOWN
Will Fuller V 12.2 11.0 DOWN 12.4 UP
Diontae Johnson 10.1 11.4 UP 9.1 DOWN
Curtis Samuel 10.8 9.2 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Robby Anderson 10.0 9.1 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Corey Davis 7.7 8.6 UP 9.2 UP
Chris Godwin 19.6 15.2 DOWN 10.5 DOWN
Cole Beasley 12.1 8.4 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Marquise Brown 10.4 12.7 UP 7.8 DOWN
Cooper Kupp 16.9 14.9 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Jarvis Landry 14.8 13.0 DOWN 7.8 DOWN
Michael Gallup 15.2 12.7 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Tyler Boyd 14.2 13.2 DOWN 7.6 DOWN
Jamison Crowder 12.4 11.6 DOWN 9.5 DOWN
Tim Patrick 4.8 2.2 DOWN 7.3 UP
Russell Gage 6.3 7.9 UP 6.8 UP
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 5.3 4.6 DOWN 6.6 UP
T.Y. Hilton 12.5 14.3 UP 7.1 DOWN
Mike Williams 10.7 9.8 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Emmanuel Sanders 10.8 11.2 UP 7.4 DOWN
DeVante Parker 15.4 12.4 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
DJ Chark Jr. 14.9 13.4 DOWN 7.7 DOWN
Christian Kirk 12.8 11.7 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Julio Jones 18.3 16.8 DOWN 10.6 DOWN
Sterling Shepard 14.0 10.9 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Keelan Cole Sr. 4.9 4.6 DOWN 5.9 UP
Darius Slayton 12.1 11.1 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Zach Pascal 8.3 7.8 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Jakobi Meyers 4.1 3.6 DOWN 6.0 UP
Rashard Higgins 1.6 2.9 UP 6.5 UP
David Moore 4.4 4.6 UP 5.2 UP
Mecole Hardman 7.4 11.1 UP 5.2 DOWN
Kendrick Bourne 6.4 5.0 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Greg Ward 10.0 7.5 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Travis Fulgham 0.0 0.0 DOWN 6.0 UP
Hunter Renfrow 10.3 8.9 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Josh Reynolds 3.9 5.8 UP 4.6 UP
Antonio Brown 16.0 7.4 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Scotty Miller 4.1 5.7 UP 4.3 UP
James Washington 9.1 8.5 DOWN 4.3 DOWN
Damiere Byrd 6.7 3.2 DOWN 4.2 DOWN

A look back: 2020 Tight End Projections - 80 % Success

  2019 2020 2020 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Travis Kelce 16.0 15.9 DOWN 13.9 DOWN
Darren Waller 13.9 12.6 DOWN 10.9 DOWN
Robert Tonyan 2.4 5.3 UP 7.8 UP
Mark Andrews 13.9 13.3 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
T.J. Hockenson 6.8 9.2 UP 6.8 UP
Mike Gesicki 8.6 10.0 UP 7.1 DOWN
Logan Thomas 2.4 6.3 UP 6.6 UP
Jonnu Smith 6.6 9.9 UP 6.6 UP
Jimmy Graham 6.3 6.4 UP 5.9 DOWN
Hayden Hurst 4.8 11.7 UP 5.8 UP
Jared Cook 12.0 10.2 DOWN 6.2 DOWN
Eric Ebron 7.9 7.9 DOWN 5.7 DOWN
Dalton Schultz 0.1 1.6 UP 5.3 UP
Noah Fant 7.1 9.5 UP 5.7 DOWN
Hunter Henry 12.5 10.4 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Tyler Higbee 10.7 11.0 UP 5.5 DOWN
Evan Engram 13.6 11.4 DOWN 5.0 DOWN
George Kittle 15.9 16.1 UP 9.6 DOWN
Dallas Goedert 9.9 9.7 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Dan Arnold 6.6 6.4 DOWN 4.2 DOWN
Austin Hooper 14.6 9.1 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Irv Smith Jr. 4.9 7.0 UP 5.1 UP
Trey Burton 2.8 5.0 UP 4.3 UP
Darren Fells 6.9 4.9 DOWN 3.5 DOWN
Gerald Everett 6.9 4.5 DOWN 3.4 DOWN
Mo Alie-Cox 1.1 1.6 UP 3.4 UP
Tyler Eifert 6.6 6.2 DOWN 3.1 DOWN
Dawson Knox 5.3 7.0 UP 3.9 DOWN
Chris Herndon 2.0 8.0 UP 2.9 UP
Jordan Akins 5.6 4.5 DOWN 3.6 DOWN

A look back: 2020 Kicker Projections - 64 % Success

  2019 2020 2020 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Jason Sanders 6.9 8.0 UP 10.8 UP
Younghoe Koo 11.8 9.9 DOWN 10.7 DOWN
Daniel Carlson 6.2 8.1 UP 9.8 UP
Greg Zuerlein 8.1 11.2 UP 9.8 UP
Ryan Succop 3.5 8.8 UP 9.4 UP
Justin Tucker 9.7 10.5 UP 9.1 DOWN
Jason Myers 7.6 8.6 UP 8.9 UP
Cairo Santos 5.6 8.5 UP 8.8 UP
Harrison Butker 10.6 11.4 UP 8.8 DOWN
Brandon McManus 8.2 9.4 UP 8.7 UP
Wil Lutz 10.3 10.9 UP 8.5 DOWN
Ka'imi Fairbairn 7.2 9.0 UP 8.4 UP
Graham Gano 0.0 7.9 UP 8.4 UP
Joey Slye 8.4 9.0 UP 8.3 DOWN
Dustin Hopkins 6.8 8.7 UP 8.1 UP
Nick Folk 8.6 0.0 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Mason Crosby 7.3 8.5 UP 7.8 UP
Michael Badgley 4.0 8.1 UP 7.7 UP
Stephen Gostkowski 9.3 8.5 DOWN 7.6 DOWN
Matt Prater 8.4 8.9 UP 7.5 DOWN
Cody Parkey 4.8 0.0 DOWN 7.6 UP
Robbie Gould 7.3 8.2 UP 6.8 DOWN
Chris Boswell 7.9 8.8 UP 6.5 DOWN
Randy Bullock 7.4 8.3 UP 6.3 DOWN
Dan Bailey 8.5 8.4 DOWN 6.0 DOWN

 

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