2015 NFLTM Player Projections
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"Award Winning Fantistics .... Consider it fantasy's version of the theory of relativity."
 
 
 
 

 

 

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last season, our software ranked Rookie Jeremy Hill - 5 rounds ahead of his ADP, CJ Anderson - 6 rounds ahead. Top-10 wide receivers Jordy Nelson and TY Hilton 1 round ahead of their ADP, Odell Beckham Jr - 3 rounds ahead of his ADP. Tight End Martellus Bennett, 3 rounds ahead of his ADP. Travis Kelce, 4 rounds ahead of his ADP. These are just a few examples of the many right calls we made in 2014.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2014: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 23 out of the top 30 = 77% correct

Running Backs:  40 out of top 50 = 80% correct

Wide Receivers: 45 out of top 60 = 75% correct

Tight Ends: 21 out of top 30 = 70% correct

Place Kickers: 16 out of the top 30 = 55% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years 2014/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/04/03/02

A look back: 2014 Quarterback Projections - 77 % Success

  2013 2014 2014 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Manning,Pe 29.8 24.4 DOWN 22.5 DOWN
Brees,Dr 25.9 24.3 DOWN 22.4 DOWN
Dalton,An 21.1 19.1 DOWN 16.3 DOWN
Rivers,Ph 21.0 19.4 DOWN 19.5 DOWN
Newton,Ca 20.9 20.2 DOWN 20.6 DOWN
Stafford,Ma 20.6 21.4 UP 18.6 DOWN
Luck,An 20.4 21.3 UP 25.6 UP
Wilson,Ru 19.6 19.6 UP 22.6 UP
Roethlisberger,Be 19.6 18.8 DOWN 22.5 UP
Kaepernick,Co 19.0 20.0 UP 18.4 DOWN
Ryan,Ma 18.8 20.5 UP 20.8 UP
Romo,To 20.0 19.9 DOWN 20.6 UP
Brady,To 18.6 20.7 UP 20.3 UP
Smith,Al 19.3 17.5 DOWN 17.3 DOWN
Foles,Ni 22.2 20.9 DOWN 18.4 DOWN
Tannehill,Ry 17.9 17.9 DOWN 20.1 UP
Palmer,Ca 16.6 17.9 UP 20.3 UP
Griffin III,Ro 19.2 19.1 DOWN 12.5 DOWN
Flacco,Jo 15.4 17.2 UP 18.9 UP
Smith,Ge 14.5 9.5 DOWN 13.0 DOWN
Manning,El 13.3 15.0 UP 20.1 UP
Fitzpatrick,Ry 17.7 7.7 DOWN 17.2 DOWN
Rodgers,Aa 21.7 24.2 UP 25.0 UP
Cutler,Ja 17.7 19.3 UP 19.9 UP
Henne,Ch 12.9 11.1 DOWN 12.4 DOWN
Glennon,Mi 14.8 5.5 DOWN 17.3 UP
Manuel,EJ 15.5 14.4 DOWN 13.4 DOWN
McCown,Jo 19.3 16.7 DOWN 14.3 DOWN
Campbell,Ja 15.7 4.5 DOWN 1.0 DOWN
Cassel,Ma 14.2 1.4 DOWN 36.5 UP

A look back: 2014 Running Back Projections - 80 % Success

  2013 2014 2014 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Charles,Ja 20.8 16.4 DOWN 14.5 DOWN
McCoy,Le 17.6 16.0 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Forte,Ma 16.6 14.3 DOWN 15.3 DOWN
Lynch,Ma 15.1 12.5 DOWN 16.8 UP
Moreno,Kn 14.8 10.1 DOWN 7.2 DOWN
Peterson,Ad 15.0 14.6 DOWN 9.3 DOWN
Lacy,Ed 14.0 14.6 UP 14.7 UP
Murray,De 14.8 12.4 DOWN 19.0 UP
Johnson,Ch 12.6 10.3 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Bush,Re 13.8 10.9 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Jackson,Fr 11.7 8.1 DOWN 8.6 DOWN
Mathews,Ry 11.6 11.1 DOWN 9.6 DOWN
Gore,Fr 11.3 9.2 DOWN 9.5 DOWN
Morris,Al 11.1 11.6 UP 11.4 UP
Bell,Le 13.5 11.9 DOWN 18.0 UP
Bernard,Gi 10.6 12.4 UP 11.1 UP
Bell,Jo 10.5 10.1 DOWN 11.1 UP
Stacy,Za 11.4 12.4 UP 3.9 DOWN
Woodhead,Da 9.4 7.5 DOWN 2.4 DOWN
Jones-Drew,Ma 9.5 8.8 DOWN 1.4 DOWN
Williams,De 9.5 6.9 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Jennings,Ra 9.3 10.9 UP 10.0 UP
Thomas,Pi 8.5 8.5 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Ellington,An 8.4 11.7 UP 11.3 UP
Ridley,St 9.0 7.7 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
Spiller,CJ 8.3 11.3 UP 5.4 DOWN
Brown,Do 7.7 6.8 DOWN 3.4 DOWN
Blount,Le 7.7 6.9 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Jackson,St 9.6 8.8 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Tate,Be 8.2 10.5 UP 6.1 DOWN
Richardson,Tr 7.0 10.3 UP 6.2 DOWN
Sproles,Da 7.1 7.3 UP 7.2 UP
Powell,Bi 6.4 4.5 DOWN 2.0 DOWN
Ivory,Ch 6.8 7.8 UP 8.5 UP
Miller,La 6.3 7.9 UP 12.0 UP
Rainey,Bo 6.1 3.6 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Tolbert,Mi 6.1 4.6 DOWN 2.1 DOWN
Ball,Mo 5.9 12.7 UP 5.9 DOWN
Rodgers,Ja 6.1 4.3 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
Vereen,Sh 11.0 9.7 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Foster,Ar 10.6 11.7 UP 18.4 UP
McFadden,Da 7.9 7.8 DOWN 5.4 DOWN
Thomas,Da 5.9 2.3 DOWN 3.4 DOWN
Starks,Ja 6.3 5.8 DOWN 3.7 DOWN
Reece,Ma 4.9 3.9 DOWN 2.7 DOWN
Helu,Ro 4.8 7.0 UP 6.2 UP
Ogbonnaya,Ch 4.4 3.9 DOWN 1.5 DOWN
Pierce,Be 4.1 7.6 UP 3.8 DOWN
McCluster,De 4.3 2.3 DOWN 2.8 DOWN
Bolden,Br 5.0 4.6 DOWN 1.0 DOWN

 

A look back: 2014 Wide Receiver Projections - 75 % Success

  2013 2014 2014 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gordon,Jo 16.2 0.0 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Thomas,De 14.2 13.5 DOWN 14.2 UP
Johnson,Ca 15.8 14.0 DOWN 12.0 DOWN
Green,AJ 13.1 12.7 DOWN 10.8 DOWN
Bryant,De 12.7 12.6 DOWN 14.3 UP
Marshall,Br 12.6 12.1 DOWN 9.2 DOWN
Brown,An 12.4 10.9 DOWN 15.9 UP
Decker,Er 12.2 8.0 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Jeffery,Al 12.2 11.3 DOWN 11.0 DOWN
Jackson,De 11.7 9.0 DOWN 10.2 DOWN
Nelson,Jo 11.2 12.0 UP 14.4 UP
Johnson,An 10.7 9.8 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Garcon,Pi 10.4 9.3 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Jackson,Vi 10.3 10.8 UP 7.0 DOWN
Boldin,An 10.1 7.2 DOWN 8.5 DOWN
Fitzgerald,La 9.8 9.3 DOWN 6.5 DOWN
Allen,Ke 10.2 11.0 UP 7.3 DOWN
Edelman,Ju 8.9 8.0 DOWN 9.3 UP
Hilton,TY 8.7 9.5 UP 11.9 UP
Welker,We 10.6 8.9 DOWN 4.2 DOWN
Smith,To 8.6 8.5 DOWN 8.9 UP
Floyd,Mi 8.4 9.9 UP 7.5 DOWN
Cooper,Ri 8.3 7.6 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Wallace,Mi 7.9 8.6 UP 9.2 UP
Hartline,Br 7.9 6.5 DOWN 3.7 DOWN
Colston,Ma 8.3 8.2 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Cruz,Vi 8.9 9.5 UP 6.6 DOWN
Tate,Go 7.7 8.4 UP 10.0 UP
Cotchery,Je 7.5 6.1 DOWN 4.3 DOWN
Wright,Ke 7.5 8.7 UP 8.1 UP
Douglas,Ha 7.4 5.0 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Streater,Ro 7.2 6.6 DOWN 4.8 DOWN
Royal,Ed 7.5 5.2 DOWN 7.6 UP
Sanders,Em 7.0 8.6 UP 12.4 UP
Washington,Na 6.9 5.1 DOWN 4.8 DOWN
Baldwin,Do 6.8 6.4 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Patterson,Co 6.6 10.3 UP 3.9 DOWN
Jennings,Gr 6.9 6.9 UP 6.9 DOWN
Williams,Te 6.5 8.3 UP 6.9 UP
Jones,Ja 7.1 6.3 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Moore,De 7.7 5.3 DOWN 1.2 DOWN
Smith,St 6.6 7.4 UP 8.9 UP
Bowe,Dw 6.5 7.1 UP 5.0 DOWN
Randle,Ru 6.1 7.8 UP 7.0 UP
Shorts,Ce 7.4 7.2 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Stills,Ke 5.9 7.2 UP 7.4 UP
LaFell,Br 5.9 6.4 UP 8.7 UP
Brown,Ma 6.7 5.6 DOWN 1.8 DOWN
Hopkins,De 5.8 7.6 UP 9.8 UP
Nicks,Ha 6.0 6.8 UP 4.0 DOWN
White,Ro 6.4 9.5 UP 9.6 UP
Ginn,Te 5.6 4.3 DOWN 1.3 DOWN
Austin,Ta 6.7 7.7 UP 3.9 DOWN
Johnson,St 6.6 5.8 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Woods,Ro 5.6 6.4 UP 6.2 UP
Dobson,Aa 6.3 5.6 DOWN 1.0 DOWN
Avery,Do 4.5 4.2 DOWN 2.9 DOWN
Kerley,Je 5.9 5.1 DOWN 3.5 DOWN
Jones,Ju 14.2 12.4 DOWN 13.0 DOWN
Pettis,Au 4.0 3.2 DOWN 3.6 DOWN

 

A look back: 2015 Tight End Projections - 70 % Success

  2013 2014 2014 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Graham,Ji 13.6 11.2 DOWN 9.3 DOWN
Davis,Ve 10.9 8.3 DOWN 2.6 DOWN
Thomas,Ju 10.8 9.6 DOWN 9.3 DOWN
Cameron,Jo 8.9 7.8 DOWN 5.4 DOWN
Witten,Ja 8.3 7.2 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Clay,Ch 7.4 6.2 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Olsen,Gr 7.4 6.8 DOWN 8.6 UP
Gates,An 6.9 5.3 DOWN 9.6 UP
Bennett,Ma 6.6 6.4 DOWN 8.0 UP
Cook,Ja 6.1 5.8 DOWN 5.1 DOWN
Walker,De 6.2 5.9 DOWN 7.5 UP
Wright,Ti 5.4 5.6 UP 3.9 DOWN
Celek,Br 5.4 4.9 DOWN 2.5 DOWN
Fleener,Co 5.3 5.7 UP 7.8 UP
Graham,Ga 6.5 5.5 DOWN 2.3 DOWN
Gronkowski,Ro 11.9 9.4 DOWN 12.3 UP
Chandler,Sc 4.9 4.8 DOWN 4.2 DOWN
Myers,Br 4.8 1.9 DOWN 1.4 DOWN
Ertz,Za 4.4 6.8 UP 5.5 UP
Gresham,Je 5.0 4.7 DOWN 5.1 UP
Reed,Jo 7.8 7.2 DOWN 4.2 DOWN
Miller,Za 4.9 3.3 DOWN 2.5 DOWN
Miller,He 4.6 5.2 UP 5.9 UP
Rivera,My 4.1 5.1 UP 4.8 UP
Cumberland,Je 4.3 3.7 DOWN 2.7 DOWN
Fauria,Jo 3.9 2.7 DOWN 1.9 DOWN
Lewis,Ma 5.5 4.9 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Green,La 3.5 6.2 UP 1.6 DOWN
Pettigrew,Br 3.9 3.0 DOWN 0.5 DOWN
Housler,Ro 3.9 5.4 UP 0.9 DOWN

A look back: 2014 Kicker Projections - 55 % Success

  2013 2014 2014 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gostkowski,St. 11.2 12.0 UP 10.6 DOWN
Prater,Ma. 10.6 8.4 DOWN 8.7 DOWN
Vinatieri,Ad. 10.1 10.9 UP 9.6 DOWN
Tucker,Ju. 10.1 11.7 UP 8.8 DOWN
Hauschka,St. 10.0 10.2 UP 9.2 DOWN
Dawson,Ph. 9.9 11.4 UP 7.8 DOWN
Crosby,Ma. 9.8 10.0 UP 9.2 DOWN
Novak,Ni. 9.8 10.0 UP 7.3 DOWN
Bailey,Da. 9.6 10.3 UP 9.3 DOWN
Carpenter,Da. 9.3 10.0 UP 9.5 UP
Folk,Ni. 9.0 9.4 UP 8.4 DOWN
Feely,Ja. 9.0 3.9 DOWN 3.8 DOWN
Walsh,Bl. 8.7 9.6 UP 7.8 DOWN
Suisham,Sh. 8.6 9.0 UP 9.0 UP
Gould,Ro. 8.4 9.3 UP 4.8 DOWN
Gano,Gr. 8.2 9.3 UP 8.3 UP
Succop,Ry. 7.9 4.1 DOWN 5.8 DOWN
Henery,Al. 7.7 3.8 DOWN 5.0 DOWN
Bryant,Ma. 7.6 8.1 UP 9.3 UP
Zuerlein,Gr. 7.6 9.7 UP 7.4 DOWN
Nugent,Mi. 7.4 9.1 UP 7.9 UP
Hartley,Ga. 8.4 2.2 DOWN 6.0 DOWN
Bullock,Ra. 7.3 8.4 UP 9.1 UP
Janikowski,Se. 7.1 8.6 UP 6.3 DOWN
Cundiff,Bi. 6.6 7.7 UP 7.2 UP
Scobee,Jo. 6.4 8.4 UP 6.0 DOWN
Brown,Jo. 6.3 8.1 UP 8.0 UP
Sturgis,Ca. 7.8 8.6 UP 8.8 UP
Forbath,Ka. 6.6 7.7 UP 6.9 UP
Graham,Sh. 7.0 4.4 DOWN 6.8 DOWN

 

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