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2011: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

Running Backs:  38 out of top 50 = 76% correct

Wide Receivers: 49 out of top 60 = 82% correct

Tight Ends: 25 out of top 30 = 83% correct

Place Kickers: 23 out of the top 30 = 77% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position. (2011/'10/'09/'08/'07/'06/'05/'04/'03/'02 Forecasting Results.)

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

A look back: 2011 Quarterback Projections - 73 % Success

  2010 2011 2011 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Rodgers,Aa 21.6 22.7 UP 29.6 UP
Vick,Mi 31.3 21.7 DOWN 21.1 DOWN
Brees,Dr 21.3 21.0 DOWN 27.8 UP
Rivers,Ph 20.9 20.7 DOWN 19.3 DOWN
Brady,To 21.3 20.5 DOWN 26.4 UP
Schaub,Ma 18.3 19.7 UP 18.5 UP
Roethlisberger,Be 16.5 19.4 UP 17.8 UP
Romo,To 7.2 19.3 UP 20.2 UP
Ryan,Ma 20.8 19.1 DOWN 20.1 DOWN
Stafford,Ma 5.6 18.7 UP 24.5 UP
Manning,El 17.6 18.4 UP 21.1 UP
Flacco,Jo 17.2 17.9 UP 15.7 DOWN
Freeman,Jo 29.7 17.6 DOWN 16.4 DOWN
Kolb,Ke 26.9 17.4 DOWN 13.8 DOWN
Cutler,Ja 15.8 16.8 UP 16.6 UP
Orton,Ky 15.9 16.7 UP 11.9 DOWN
Bradford,Sa 229.9 16.7 DOWN 12.2 DOWN
McCoy,Co 105.7 16.2 DOWN 14.7 DOWN
McNabb,Do 15.0 15.7 UP 12.5 DOWN
Sanchez,Ma 15.6 15.6 UP 18.0 UP
Collins,Ke 18.8 15.6 DOWN 10.0 DOWN
Cassel,Ma 17.5 15.6 DOWN 13.0 DOWN
Fitzpatrick,Ry 23.9 15.4 DOWN 16.3 DOWN
Newton,Ca - 15.2 - 25.6 - N/A
Campbell,Ja 11.5 14.9 UP 15.4 UP
Henne,Ch 13.9 12.8 DOWN 16.9 UP
Hasselbeck,Ma 13.4 11.9 DOWN 14.2 UP
Jackson,Ta 3.9 11.8 UP 13.4 UP
Dalton,An - 11.7 - 15.3 - N/A
Gabbert,Bl - 10.9 - 9.8 - N/A
Smith,Al 14.6 10.5 DOWN 15.3 UP
Beck,Jo 0.0 10.2 UP 14.8 UP
Ponder,Ch - 10.1 - 12.8 - N/A
Locker,Ja - 9.1 - 10.9 - N/A
McCown,Jo 0.0 6.9 UP 62.8 UP
Tebow,Ti 105.4 5.4 DOWN 1.4 DOWN
Grossman,Re 64.8 5.2 DOWN 0.6 DOWN
Young,Vi 9.1 7.5 DOWN 55.7 UP
Whitehurst,Ch 3.8 3.3 DOWN 1.4 DOWN
Gradkowski,Br 9.0 2.8 DOWN 82.8 UP

 

A look back: 2011 Running Back Projections - 75 % Success

 
  2010 2011 2011 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Peterson,Ad 15.1 16.4 UP 15.8 UP
Charles,Ja 16.1 15.7 DOWN 7.6 DOWN
Foster,Ar 82.5 15.6 DOWN 19.7 DOWN
Johnson,Ch 14.6 15.4 UP 10.7 DOWN
McCoy,Le 13.8 14.8 UP 18.8 UP
Rice,Ra 13.4 14.6 UP 18.8 UP
McFadden,Da 18.9 12.9 DOWN 15.3 DOWN
Mendenhall,Ra 14.8 12.7 DOWN 10.8 DOWN
Gore,Fr 11.5 12.7 UP 11.3 DOWN
Forte,Ma 13.5 12.6 DOWN 14.4 UP
Jones-Drew,Ma 12.9 12.6 DOWN 16.5 UP
Turner,Mi 19.8 12.5 DOWN 13.6 DOWN
Jones,Fe 9.8 12.4 UP 7.2 DOWN
Hillis,Pe 30.4 12.1 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Jackson,St 13.2 12.0 DOWN 12.3 DOWN
Moreno,Kn 10.2 11.8 UP 4.9 DOWN
Blount,Le 138.1 11.7 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Best,Ja 141.0 11.6 DOWN 14.3 DOWN
Wells,Ch 3.7 11.6 UP 12.1 UP
Mathews,Ry 124.0 11.2 DOWN 13.6 DOWN
Ingram,Ma - 11.0 - 8.2 - N/A
Greene,Sh 7.7 10.8 UP 10.2 UP
Bradshaw,Ah 13.5 10.8 DOWN 13.2 DOWN
Thomas,Da - 10.2 - 5.5 - N/A
Green-Ellis,Be 31.2 10.1 DOWN 9.3 DOWN
Williams,De 3.7 10.0 UP 8.7 UP
Bush,Re 3.0 9.9 UP 12.1 UP
Addai,Jo 5.7 9.7 UP 4.9 DOWN
Benson,Ce 13.6 9.4 DOWN 10.1 DOWN
Stewart,Jo 6.6 9.2 UP 9.2 UP
Hightower,Ti 7.3 8.9 UP 10.4 UP
Tolbert,Mi 13.4 8.8 DOWN 10.2 DOWN
Thomas,Pi 4.2 8.5 UP 8.4 UP
Spiller,C. 50.0 8.5 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Grant,Ry 0.3 8.5 UP 6.7 UP
Jackson,Fr 9.8 8.5 DOWN 17.4 UP
Lynch,Ma 9.6 8.3 DOWN 14.6 UP
Torain,Ry 7.7 8.2 UP 3.5 DOWN
Starks,Ja 11.6 8.1 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Jacobs,Br 9.5 8.0 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Hardesty,Mo 0.0 8.0 UP 4.3 UP
Murray,De - 7.7 - 9.2 - N/A
Woodhead,Da 23.7 7.7 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Carter,De - 7.6 - 3.4 - N/A
Bush,Mi 8.9 7.3 DOWN 11.7 UP
McGahee,Wi 5.3 7.1 UP 10.3 UP
Tate,Be 0.0 6.8 UP 8.5 UP
Hunter,Ke - 6.8 - 5.3 - N/A
Tomlinson,La 11.6 6.7 DOWN 6.5 DOWN
Jones,Th 8.6 6.7 DOWN 3.3 DOWN
Ridley,St - 6.6 - 4.3 - N/A
Helu,Ro - 6.5 - 8.0 - N/A
Rodgers,Ja - 6.4 - 3.2 - N/A
Sproles,Da 5.7 6.1 UP 11.6 UP
Vereen,Sh - 6.0 - 5.9 - N/A
Stephens-Howling,La 9.5 5.8 DOWN 3.7 DOWN
Karim,De 17.0 5.8 DOWN 2.3 DOWN
Scott,Be 4.7 5.8 UP 3.7 DOWN
Jones,Ta - 5.6 - 1.6 - N/A

A look back: 2011 Wide Receiver Projections - 80 % Success
  2010 2011 2011 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Johnson,An 10.7 12.9 UP 8.9 DOWN
Johnson,Ca 13.4 12.2 DOWN 16.6 UP
White,Ro 12.5 12.0 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Fitzgerald,La 9.4 11.6 UP 11.8 UP
Wallace,Mi 11.9 11.5 DOWN 10.8 DOWN
Nicks,Ha 15.6 11.4 DOWN 10.5 DOWN
Bryant,De 92.1 11.2 DOWN 9.8 DOWN
Jackson,Vi 2.9 11.2 UP 10.6 UP
Austin,Mi 10.1 10.9 UP 10.0 DOWN
Jackson,De 10.5 10.8 UP 8.3 DOWN
Bowe,Dw 17.2 10.8 DOWN 9.2 DOWN
Williams,Mi 80.8 10.8 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Jennings,Gr 12.4 10.7 DOWN 11.5 DOWN
Wayne,Re 10.7 10.7 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Marshall,Br 8.0 9.9 UP 9.9 UP
Harvin,Pe 12.2 9.7 DOWN 11.2 DOWN
Welker,We 9.1 9.5 UP 13.4 UP
Lloyd,Br 104.5 9.4 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Holmes,Sa 7.0 9.1 UP 7.3 UP
Britt,Ke 8.8 9.1 UP 15.6 UP
Boldin,An 8.4 9.0 UP 7.6 DOWN
Manningham,Ma 10.6 8.8 DOWN 6.9 DOWN
Maclin,Je 12.3 8.8 DOWN 8.9 DOWN
Collie,Au 6.9 8.7 UP 3.6 DOWN
Jones,Ju - 8.4 - 12.5 - N/A
Johnson,St 55.8 8.4 DOWN 8.9 DOWN
Green,A. - 8.3 - 10.2 - N/A
Colston,Ma 9.0 8.3 DOWN 11.6 UP
Rice,Si 2.5 8.0 UP 7.1 UP
Garcon,Pi 8.4 8.0 DOWN 8.3 DOWN
Burress,Pl 0.0 7.9 UP 6.8 UP
Crabtree,Mi 10.0 7.8 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Evans,Le 5.1 7.8 UP 0.8 DOWN
Knox,Jo 8.4 7.5 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Edwards,Br 26.6 7.4 DOWN 2.0 DOWN
Nelson,Jo 5.9 7.3 UP 13.5 UP
Branch,De 8.4 7.3 DOWN 7.2 DOWN
Thomas,Mi 10.7 7.2 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
OchoCinco,Ch 6.7 7.0 UP 2.4 DOWN
Sims-Walker,Mi 6.5 7.0 UP 2.5 DOWN
Floyd,Ma 6.7 6.9 UP 9.6 UP
Ward,Hi 6.6 6.9 UP 3.6 DOWN
Ford,Ja 86.5 6.8 DOWN 4.6 DOWN
McCluster,De 34.0 6.8 DOWN 6.0 DOWN
Moss,Sa 9.2 6.8 DOWN 6.9 DOWN
Smith,St 4.6 6.8 UP 11.7 UP
Moore,La 20.7 6.8 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
Thomas,De 40.4 6.8 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Bennett,Ea 4.7 6.8 UP 4.0 DOWN
Jones,Ja 6.1 6.8 UP 7.0 UP
Burleson,Na 8.2 6.8 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Little,Gr - 6.8 - 5.3 - N/A
Brown,An 1.2 6.8 UP 7.9 UP
Mason,De 7.6 6.7 DOWN 1.5 DOWN
Washington,Na 6.5 6.7 UP 9.4 UP
Moore,De - 6.7 - 8.0 - N/A
Alexander,Da 36.6 6.7 DOWN 5.5 DOWN
Breaston,St 5.8 6.7 UP 5.8 UP
Roberts,An 42.7 6.6 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Hixon,Do 0.0 6.6 UP 5.5 UP
Walter,Ke 6.6 6.6 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Berrian,Be 1.5 6.6 UP 1.8 UP
Meachem,Ro 6.4 6.5 UP 6.7 UP
Benn,Ar 55.0 6.5 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Morgan,Jo 5.6 6.5 UP 5.6 UP

 

A look back: 2011 Tight End Projections - 83% Success

  2010 2011 2011 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gates,An 8.6 10.2 UP 9.2 UP
Finley,Je 3.0 9.7 UP 7.8 UP
Davis,Ve 8.3 9.0 UP 7.2 DOWN
Clark,Da 3.3 8.2 UP 4.7 UP
Witten,Ja 9.6 8.1 DOWN 7.8 DOWN
Graham,Ji 65.9 7.8 DOWN 12.3 DOWN
Daniels,Ow 7.4 7.4 UP 5.7 DOWN
Lewis,Ma 8.7 6.9 DOWN 3.3 DOWN
Winslow,Ke 6.4 6.7 UP 5.5 DOWN
Pettigrew,Br 9.6 6.6 DOWN 6.7 DOWN
Gonzalez,To 6.4 6.3 DOWN 8.1 UP
Miller,Za 6.6 6.2 DOWN 1.8 DOWN
Hernandez,Aa 97.0 6.2 DOWN 9.8 DOWN
Olsen,Gr 4.4 6.1 UP 5.3 UP
Gronkowski,Ro 114.6 6.1 DOWN 15.1 DOWN
Gresham,Je 71.1 6.1 DOWN 6.8 DOWN
Kendricks,La - 5.9 - 2.3 - N/A
Miller,He 4.0 5.8 UP 4.7 UP
Keller,Du 6.2 5.7 DOWN 7.0 UP
Cook,Ja 5.3 5.7 UP 5.9 UP
Watson,Be 7.9 5.7 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Dickson,Ed 21.2 5.6 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Celek,Br 4.7 5.6 UP 6.9 UP
Shiancoe,Vi 4.1 5.5 UP 4.2 UP
Heap,To 5.6 5.5 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Davis,Fr 3.3 5.3 UP 8.1 UP
Boss,Ke 5.5 5.3 DOWN 4.6 DOWN
Fasano,An 5.5 4.9 DOWN 5.0 DOWN
Moore,Ev 38.2 4.7 DOWN 4.3 DOWN
Fells,Da 12.8 4.5 DOWN 3.4 DOWN
Cooley,Ch 17.2 4.4 DOWN 1.4 DOWN

 

 

A look back: 2011 Place Kicker Projections - 77% Success
  2010 2011 2011 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gostkowski,St. 3.6 9.0 UP 9.6 UP
Bironas,Ro. 7.1 8.9 UP 8.9 UP
Crosby,Ma. 7.3 8.8 UP 9.2 UP
Janikowski,Se. 8.9 8.8 DOWN 10.2 UP
Bryant,Ma. 26.8 8.8 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Brown,Jo. 7.9 8.8 UP 5.6 DOWN
Rackers,Ne. 7.7 8.7 UP 9.2 UP
Cundiff,Bi. 9.5 8.6 DOWN 8.2 DOWN
Vinatieri,Ad. 8.6 8.6 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Henery,Al. - 8.4 - 7.8 - N/A
Carpenter,Da. 7.4 8.4 UP 8.0 UP
Akers,Da. 9.4 8.3 DOWN 11.6 UP
Barth,Co. 12.1 8.3 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Suisham,Sh. 4.9 8.2 UP 7.1 UP
Gould,Ro. 6.8 8.1 UP 8.7 UP
Longwell,Ry. 5.2 8.1 UP 7.1 UP
Folk,Ni. 9.0 8.0 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Feely,Ja. 6.6 7.9 UP 6.1 DOWN
Scobee,Jo. 7.0 7.8 UP 6.9 DOWN
Kasay,Jo. 6.1 7.2 UP 9.8 UP
Tynes,La. 6.2 7.1 UP 6.6 UP
Bailey,Da. - 7.0 - 9.3 - N/A
Mare,Ol. 6.8 6.9 UP 7.4 UP
Prater,Ma. 4.8 6.7 UP 6.0 UP
Hauschka,St. 0.0 6.6 UP 7.5 UP
Dawson,Ph. 6.3 6.6 UP 7.1 UP
Lindell,Ri. 4.8 6.6 UP 5.8 UP
Hanson,Ja. 3.3 6.4 UP 8.6 UP
Nugent,Mi. 9.8 6.2 DOWN 9.1 DOWN
Graham,Sh. 4.8 2.9 DOWN 7.0 UP
Rayner,Da. 14.0 2.4 DOWN 5.9 DOWN
Novak,Ni. 0.0 0.0 DOWN 9.2 UP

 

 
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