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2010: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 23 out of the top 30 = 77% correct

Running Backs:40 out of top 50 = 80% correct

Wide Receivers: 48 out of top 60 = 80% correct

Tight Ends: 20 out of top 30 = 67% correct

Place Kickers: 22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position. (2010/2009/2008/2007/2006/2005/2004/2003/2002 Forecasting Results.)

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

A look back : 2010 Quarterback Projections - 77 % Success

  2009 2010 2010 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Manning,Pe 20.3 22.1 UP 20.9 UP
Brady,To 19.8 20.3 UP 21.3 UP
Rivers,Ph 19.9 19.9 DOWN 20.9 UP
Romo,To 20.4 19.7 DOWN 16.5 DOWN
Flacco,Jo 15.4 18.0 UP 17.2 UP
Palmer,Ca 15.0 17.5 UP 16.7 UP
Manning,El 18.0 17.3 DOWN 17.6 DOWN
Cutler,Ja 16.4 17.0 UP 15.8 DOWN
Favre,Br 20.6 16.9 DOWN 10.2 DOWN
Kolb,Ke 18.0 16.8 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Ryan,Ma 15.5 16.4 UP 18.2 UP
McNabb,Do 19.4 15.9 DOWN 16.2 DOWN
Stafford,Ma 2.3 15.6 UP 9.3 UP
Young,Vi 13.3 15.5 UP 12.1 DOWN
Roethlisberger,Be 21.1 15.4 DOWN 20.6 DOWN
Henne,Ch 12.4 15.2 UP 12.9 UP
Orton,Ky 16.1 15.0 DOWN 19.6 UP
Garrard,Da 16.9 15.0 DOWN 18.3 UP
Smith,Al 0.5 14.9 UP 14.6 UP
Campbell,Ja 16.3 14.7 DOWN 12.2 DOWN
Cassel,Ma 13.2 14.3 UP 17.5 UP
Hasselbeck,Ma 14.1 13.3 DOWN 12.5 DOWN
Sanchez,Ma 1.9 13.4 UP 15.6 UP
Anderson,De 6.1 13.0 UP 9.5 UP
Edwards,Tr 9.9 12.7 UP 6.0 DOWN
Freeman,Jo 1.6 12.6 UP 18.6 UP
Moore,Ma 11.4 11.3 DOWN 5.7 DOWN
Delhomme,Ja 9.4 11.3 UP 4.7 DOWN
Gradkowski,Br 11.3 3.1 DOWN .03 DOWN
Vick,Mi 2.7 8.3 UP 26.5 UP

A look back: 2010 Running Back Projections -80 % Success

 
  2009 2010 2010 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Johnson,Ch 21.7 19.1 DOWN 14.6 DOWN
Peterson,Ad 18.2 16.9 DOWN 16.1 DOWN
Jones-Drew,Ma 17.1 16.1 DOWN 14.6 DOWN
Rice,Ra 15.8 15.3 DOWN 13.4 DOWN
Gore,Fr 16.5 14.4 DOWN 14.6 DOWN
Turner,Mi 13.7 14.3 UP 13.6 DOWN
Jackson,St 13.2 13.9 UP 13.2 UP
Mathews,Ry 0.0 13.4 UP 10.3 UP N/A
Thomas,Pi 11.3 12.7 UP 7.4 DOWN
Williams,De 13.8 12.6 DOWN 6.9 DOWN
Greene,Sh 5.1 12.5 UP 6.7 UP
McCoy,Le 7.4 12.4 UP 14.7 UP
Grant,Ry 13.2 12.2 DOWN 4.5 DOWN
Benson,Ce 13.2 12.1 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Charles,Ja 12.7 13.9 UP 15.1 UP
Mendenhall,Ra 12.3 12.1 DOWN 13.9 UP
Best,Ja 0.0 12.1 UP 9.4 UP N/A
Spiller,C. 0.0 12.0 UP 3.6 UP N/A
Moreno,Kn 10.6 11.9 UP 11.7 UP
Foster,Ar 13.3 11.8 DOWN 20.6 UP
Forte,Ma 10.3 11.7 UP 13.5 UP
Wells,Ch 8.5 11.7 UP 4.5 DOWN
Addai,Jo 12.9 11.6 DOWN 9.5 DOWN
Brown,Ro 13.7 11.6 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
Stewart,Jo 12.1 11.6 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Bradshaw,Ah 9.4 11.3 UP 12.7 UP
Tomlinson,La 11.4 10.9 DOWN 10.9 DOWN
Forsett,Ju 7.9 10.8 UP 5.6 DOWN
Portis,Cl 8.4 10.8 UP 8.0 DOWN
Jones,Fe 7.0 10.7 UP 8.6 UP
Barber,Ma 10.5 10.6 UP 5.1 DOWN
Williams,Ri 13.6 10.6 DOWN 6.2 DOWN
Bush,Re 8.6 10.3 UP 4.2 DOWN
Jones,Th 14.4 10.0 DOWN 8.6 DOWN
Jacobs,Br 9.2 9.7 UP 8.9 DOWN
Jackson,Fr 10.4 9.2 DOWN 9.8 DOWN
Williams,Ca 9.1 9.0 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Brown,Do 5.7 8.6 UP 5.9 UP
Maroney,La 9.3 8.6 DOWN 6.2 DOWN
Bush,Mi 5.8 8.2 UP 9.5 UP
Hightower,Ti 9.4 8.0 DOWN 7.3 DOWN
McFadden,Da 5.5 7.8 UP 17.4 UP
Hillis,Pe 1.6 7.3 UP 15.3 UP
Slaton,St 11.5 6.5 DOWN 1.7 DOWN
Dixon,An 0.0 5.7 UP 3.1 UP N/A
Dwyer,Jo 0.0 5.7 UP 0.9 UP N/A
Gerhart,To 0.0 5.7 UP 3.9 UP N/A
McGahee,Wi 9.8 5.6 DOWN 5.3 DOWN
Choice,Ta 4.4 5.6 UP 4.4 UP
Smith,Ke 11.2 5.5 DOWN 4.1 DOWN
Davis,Ja 1.0 5.5 UP 5.3 UP
Ringer,Ja 2.5 5.5 UP 2.5 UP
Westbrook,Br 7.3 5.4 DOWN 6.1 DOWN
Faulk,Ke 5.5 5.3 DOWN 5.4 DOWN
Jones,Ju 8.1 5.0 DOWN 2.8 DOWN
Buckhalter,Co 6.7 4.9 DOWN 4.5 DOWN

 

A look back 2010 Wide Receiver Projections - 80 % Success
  2009 2010 2010 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Johnson,An 13.3 13.8 UP 12.2 DOWN
Moss,Ra 12.8 12.3 DOWN 17.3 UP
Austin,Mi 12.4 12.2 DOWN 10.1 DOWN
Wayne,Re 11.6 11.9 UP 10.7 DOWN
Johnson,Ca 9.7 11.9 UP 12.5 UP
Fitzgerald,La 11.7 11.6 DOWN 9.4 DOWN
White,Ro 11.4 11.4 UP 12.5 UP
Marshall,Br 11.7 11.1 DOWN 8.6 DOWN
Jackson,De 12.7 10.9 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Jennings,Gr 8.5 10.7 UP 12.4 UP
Smith,St 9.5 10.5 UP 4.9 DOWN
Colston,Ma 10.1 10.4 UP 9.6 DOWN
Smith,St 10.3 10.2 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Nicks,Ha 10.5 10.0 DOWN 13.2 UP
Boldin,An 8.9 9.7 UP 7.9 DOWN
OchoCinco,Ch 10.1 9.7 DOWN 7.7 DOWN
Harvin,Pe 11.7 9.2 DOWN 9.6 DOWN
Crabtree,Mi 6.8 9.1 UP 6.9 UP
Owens,Te 7.8 9.1 UP 11.7 UP
Bryant,De 0.0 8.9 UP 7.7 UP N/A
Garcon,Pi 7.3 8.6 UP 7.9 UP
Wallace,Mi 7.3 8.5 UP 11.9 UP
Meachem,Ro 8.9 8.5 DOWN 6.0 DOWN
Ward,Hi 9.6 8.4 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Welker,We 11.6 8.4 DOWN 8.5 DOWN
Bowe,Dw 6.9 8.3 UP 12.9 UP
Driver,Do 8.9 7.9 DOWN 5.0 DOWN
Floyd,Ma 5.3 7.9 UP 9.0 UP
Mason,De 9.1 7.9 DOWN 7.6 DOWN
Breaston,St 6.7 7.9 UP 6.3 DOWN
Maclin,Je 7.7 7.8 UP 10.0 UP
Sims-Walker,Mi 8.6 7.8 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Williams,Mi 0.0 7.7 UP 10.1 UP N/A
Royal,Ed 2.7 7.7 UP 5.4 UP
Berrian,Be 5.4 7.6 UP 1.8 DOWN
Holmes,Sa 9.7 7.6 DOWN 9.4 DOWN
Moss,Sa 6.8 7.6 UP 9.2 UP
Britt,Ke 5.9 7.4 UP 12.0 UP
Massaquoi,Mo 7.3 7.4 UP 4.4 DOWN
Gaffney,Ja 5.3 7.3 UP 6.2 UP
Jackson,Vi 11.5 7.3 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Evans,Le 6.4 7.2 UP 6.8 UP
Walter,Ke 5.4 7.1 UP 6.1 UP
Knox,Jo 5.0 7.1 UP 7.9 UP
Aromashodu,De 7.7 7.0 DOWN 1.5 DOWN
Burleson,Na 7.7 7.0 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Henderson,De 5.9 7.0 UP 3.3 DOWN
Edwards,Br 18.4 7.0 DOWN 8.3 DOWN
Cotchery,Je 7.6 6.9 DOWN 4.2 DOWN
McCluster,De 0.0 6.9 UP 3.1 UP N/A
Naanee,Le 3.1 6.9 UP 4.8 UP
Heyward-Bey,Da 1.8 6.9 UP 3.4 UP
Jones,Ja 6.3 6.7 UP 5.0 DOWN
Chambers,Ch 11.4 6.7 DOWN 2.3 DOWN
Shipley,Jo 0.0 6.6 UP 5.2 UP N/A
Benn,Ar 0.0 6.5 UP 4.2 UP N/A
Williams,Mi 0.0 6.4 UP 6.7 UP N/A
Hester,De 7.2 6.4 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Houshmandzadeh,TJ 6.8 6.1 DOWN 3.6 DOWN
Thomas,De 0.0 6.1 UP 4.0 UP N/A
Camarillo,Gr 3.4 6.0 UP 2.5 DOWN
Williams,Ro 6.8 5.7 DOWN 5.5 DOWN
Bess,Da 5.6 5.7 UP 7.0 UP
Morgan,Jo 5.1 5.7 UP 5.2 UP
Doucet,Ea 3.0 5.6 UP 3.2 UP
Amendola,Da 0.0 5.6 UP 5.9 UP N/A
Murphy,Lo 4.1 5.4 UP 5.5 UP
Robinson,La 7.7 5.3 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
Butler,De 1.4 5.3 UP 4.9 UP

 

A look back: 2010 Tight End Projections - 67% Success

  2009 2010 2010 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gates,An 10.3 10.0 DOWN 12.6 UP
Clark,Da 10.8 9.5 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Finley,Je 8.2 9.0 UP 9.0 UP
Davis,Ve 10.9 8.6 DOWN 8.3 DOWN
Witten,Ja 7.2 8.2 UP 9.6 UP
Shiancoe,Vi 7.7 8.0 UP 4.3 DOWN
Cooley,Ch 7.5 7.5 UP 6.4 DOWN
Gonzalez,To 7.7 7.4 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Celek,Br 9.1 7.3 DOWN 5.4 DOWN
Winslow,Ke 7.4 7.2 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Daniels,Ow 10.3 7.2 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Miller,Za 6.6 7.1 UP 6.2 DOWN
Miller,He 7.2 7.1 DOWN 4.5 DOWN
Carlson,Jo 6.2 6.8 UP 2.7 DOWN
Olsen,Gr 6.8 6.7 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Keller,Du 4.1 6.2 UP 6.6 UP
Boss,Ke 5.9 6.1 UP 5.5 DOWN
Gresham,Je 0.0 5.7 UP 4.7 UP N/A
Davis,Fr 5.8 5.0 DOWN 3.8 DOWN
Heap,To 6.0 4.5 DOWN 6.9 UP
Scaife,Bo 3.8 4.2 UP 4.3 UP
Scheffler,To 3.6 4.2 UP 2.9 DOWN
Graham,Da 2.3 4.2 UP 1.1 DOWN
Lewis,Ma 4.3 4.0 DOWN 8.1 UP
Dickson,Ed 0.0 4.0 UP 1.6 UP N/A
Cook,Ja 0.9 3.9 UP 3.8 UP
Gronkowski,Ro 0.0 3.8 UP 7.2 UP N/A
Fells,Da 11.3 3.4 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
Thomas,Da 5.3 3.1 DOWN 2.8 DOWN
Pope,Le 11.5 2.5 DOWN 1.5 DOWN

 

A look back: 2010 Place Kicker Projections - 73% Success
  2008 2009 2009 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gostkowski,St. 7.9 9.7 UP 7.3 DOWN
Akers,Da. 9.3 9.4 UP 9.6 UP
Kaeding,Na. 9.1 9.4 UP 7.5 DOWN
Longwell,Ry. 8.5 9.1 UP 5.2 DOWN
Crosby,Ma. 8.1 8.8 UP 7.8 DOWN
Gould,Ro. 6.8 8.8 UP 7.5 UP
Prater,Ma. 7.9 8.8 UP 6.0 DOWN
Bironas,Ro. 7.4 8.8 UP 7.6 UP
Succop,Ry. 0.0 8.7 UP 8.1 UP N/A
Carpenter,Da. 7.4 8.7 UP 8.4 UP
Tynes,La. 8.1 8.6 UP 6.7 DOWN
Folk,Ni. 6.6 8.6 UP 8.4 UP
Vinatieri,Ad. 2.5 8.2 UP 8.6 UP
Hartley,Ga. 3.1 8.2 UP 6.9 UP
Nugent,Mi. 4.5 8.1 UP 7.4 UP
Feely,Ja. 8.2 8.1 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Reed,Je. 7.9 8.0 UP 7.9 UP
Rackers,Ne. 5.7 7.9 UP 8.4 UP
Cundiff,Bi. 6.2 7.8 UP 7.8 UP
Kasay,Jo. 6.3 7.8 UP 6.8 UP
Janikowski,Se. 5.8 7.7 UP 9.9 UP
Hanson,Ja. 5.8 7.4 UP 5.9 UP
Nedney,Jo. 5.3 7.4 UP 3.9 DOWN
Bryant,Ma. 5.8 7.3 UP 8.6 UP
Mare,Ol. 6.6 7.1 UP 7.1 UP
Lindell,Ri. 6.9 6.8 DOWN 5.3 DOWN
Gano,Gr. 6.6 35.1 UP 8.1 UP
Scobee,Jo. 4.9 5.8 UP 7.5 UP
Barth,Co. 5.9 5.5 DOWN 7.1 UP
Dawson,Ph. 4.6 5.3 UP 6.3 UP

 

 

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