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Judging by the survey results
sent at the conclusion of the 2008 season, a vast
majority of our subscribers enjoyed another highly competitive
season! Results are the bottom line and many of our
subscribers reaped the rewards of these results from Fantistics
in 2008. In total 81% of the respondents placed in the
top 3 within their league!
Since 1999, Fantistics has correctly
forecast the statistical direction on almost 8 out of 10 fantasy
players. Using advanced technical indicators such as Targeted
Pass Ratios, Red Zone %, Completion %, 100/300 yard game
indicators, Quality Games/Starts, Difficulty of Schedule, and Player
Production Charting we have amassed an impressive
prognostication record for our subscribers.
While other fantasy services
may be boasting of the number of fantasy "experts" on staff.....that
doesn't necessarily translate to success. What this really means is
their consensus projections will mirror what the rest of the fantasy
community thinks.... which in a sense means that the final results
will be "average".
At Fantistics there is
only one statistician who produces the draft day projections
(Anthony A. Perri), maintaining the forecasting though-out the
preseason on a daily basis, and most importantly standing by the
results at season's end. Now in our 10th season serving
knowledgeable fantasy enthusiasts, we continue to produce a
product that is distinguishable from the rest of the field. This is
not to say that we don't also have a great supporting cast, but the
principles that constitute the forecasting model and the drafting
model (VAM) are unabated. Using time and again tested formulas of
forecasting athletic performance, we continue to produce some of the
most compelling results in the sports community...at least results
that anyone is willing to publish.
One of the ways we measure
success is comparing what direction a player's performance
took during the forecasting season. We could sit here and tell
you that we predicted exactly how many TDs Roddy White would
register in 2008 (7), but in essence projecting any exact number is pure
luck. On the other hand, predicting that Roddy White's production would
rise in 2008 verses
his prior season....was not. Sure we considered age, supporting
cast, career indicators, the system, and durability factors...but
the key element that lead us to his upward projection was the
success that White had the prior season in his completion
percentage and Red Zone success. Looking in from last preseason, our analysis indicated that
White's Red Zone production had been rising, which is resulting in
more red zone opportunities ...and true to expectation, he did
improve
in 2008.
2008: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*
Quarterbacks:
22 out of
the top 30 = 73% correct
Running Backs:40 out of
top 50 = 77% correct
Wide Receivers:
46 out
of top 60 = 72% correct
Tight Ends:
27 out of
top 30 = 77% correct
Place Kickers:
22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct
*Based on predicting whether or not a
player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed
listing of each player and position. (2007
/2006
/2005 /2004
/2003 /2002
Forecasting Results.)
The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
A look back
at the 2008 Quarterback Projections -
76 % Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Brady,T |
21.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
12.0 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Romo,T |
21.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
19.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,P |
19.8 |
19.6 |
DOWN |
18.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brees,D |
19.4 |
19.4 |
UP |
22.2 |
UP |
|
|
Roethlisberger,B |
19.7 |
18.1 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Palmer,C |
17.0 |
17.6 |
UP |
11.2 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Cutler,J |
15.8 |
16.7 |
UP |
20.1 |
UP |
|
|
Anderson,D |
18.3 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
10.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
18.5 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
18.5 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,E |
14.5 |
16.0 |
UP |
14.6 |
UP |
|
|
McNabb,D |
18.0 |
15.7 |
DOWN |
18.3 |
UP |
|
|
Favre,B |
18.2 |
15.6 |
DOWN |
14.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Warner,K |
18.0 |
15.5 |
DOWN |
20.1 |
UP |
|
|
Kitna,J |
15.1 |
15.4 |
UP |
12.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Garrard,D |
18.0 |
15.4 |
DOWN |
16.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Rivers,P |
13.8 |
15.3 |
UP |
20.2 |
UP |
|
|
Campbell,J |
14.3 |
15.1 |
UP |
14.6 |
UP |
|
|
Rodgers,A |
9.0 |
15.0 |
UP |
20.8 |
UP |
|
|
Schaub,M |
12.3 |
14.5 |
UP |
19.2 |
UP |
|
|
Bulger,M |
11.3 |
14.4 |
UP |
10.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Delhomme,J |
21.3 |
13.4 |
DOWN |
13.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Young,V |
12.5 |
13.2 |
UP |
4.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Croyle,B |
8.3 |
12.8 |
UP |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,T |
9.8 |
12.6 |
UP |
13.5 |
UP |
|
|
Russell,J |
4.8 |
12.4 |
UP |
11.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,T |
12.7 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Orton,K |
10.7 |
11.3 |
UP |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Ryan,M |
0.0 |
10.8 |
UP |
14.4 |
UP |
|
|
O'Sullivan,J |
1.5 |
10.7 |
UP |
11.8 |
UP |
|
|
A look back
at the 2008 Running Back Projections -
77 % Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Tomlinson,L |
18.9 |
20.8 |
UP |
14.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Peterson,A |
15.9 |
17.9 |
UP |
15.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,S |
10.2 |
16.7 |
UP |
15.9 |
UP |
|
|
Westbrook,B |
18.8 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
15.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Addai,J |
14.6 |
16.1 |
UP |
9.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gore,F |
11.9 |
14.7 |
UP |
13.5 |
UP |
|
|
Barber III,M |
12.4 |
14.3 |
UP |
12.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lynch,M |
11.5 |
14.1 |
UP |
12.6 |
UP |
|
|
Portis,C |
28.9 |
13.9 |
DOWN |
14.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,L |
6.2 |
13.7 |
UP |
10.8 |
UP |
|
|
Grant,R |
79.0 |
12.9 |
DOWN |
10.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones-Drew,M |
10.7 |
12.9 |
UP |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
McFadden,D |
0.0 |
11.4 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Jacobs,B |
10.3 |
11.3 |
UP |
15.6 |
UP |
|
|
Lewis,J |
13.8 |
11.2 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
McGahee,W |
13.7 |
11.0 |
DOWN |
9.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Turner,M |
3.0 |
11.0 |
UP |
17.3 |
UP |
|
|
Bush,R |
8.5 |
10.8 |
UP |
12.0 |
UP |
|
|
Stewart,J |
0.0 |
10.3 |
UP |
9.3 |
UP |
|
|
Forte,M |
0.0 |
10.0 |
UP |
15.2 |
UP |
|
|
Young,S |
6.8 |
9.9 |
UP |
4.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Maroney,L |
9.4 |
9.7 |
UP |
3.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,W |
10.0 |
9.6 |
DOWN |
10.0 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,T |
9.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
15.1 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,R |
0.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
7.7 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,C |
0.0 |
9.2 |
UP |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
Graham,E |
11.4 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
10.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
James,E |
11.6 |
9.2 |
DOWN |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,K |
0.0 |
9.2 |
UP |
10.9 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,F |
10.4 |
9.1 |
DOWN |
5.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Perry,C |
0.0 |
9.0 |
UP |
4.2 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,D |
9.2 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
17.7 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
9.9 |
8.4 |
DOWN |
11.4 |
UP |
|
|
Morris,M |
7.1 |
8.3 |
UP |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Rice,R |
0.0 |
8.0 |
UP |
6.1 |
UP |
|
|
Mendenhall,R |
0.0 |
7.8 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Green,A |
3.6 |
7.7 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,F |
0.0 |
7.7 |
UP |
9.1 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,J |
5.7 |
7.6 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
White,L |
12.6 |
7.6 |
DOWN |
10.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
McAllister,D |
0.7 |
7.5 |
UP |
7.0 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,R |
5.3 |
7.4 |
UP |
3.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hightower,T |
0.0 |
7.3 |
UP |
7.7 |
UP |
|
|
Slaton,S |
0.0 |
7.3 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Bradshaw,A |
1.7 |
7.3 |
UP |
4.7 |
UP |
|
|
Fargas,J |
9.0 |
7.2 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Norwood,J |
6.8 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.4 |
UP |
|
|
Hall,A |
2.7 |
6.6 |
UP |
2.8 |
UP |
|
|
Bennett,M |
4.2 |
6.6 |
UP |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Washington,L |
4.7 |
6.4 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,C |
10.3 |
6.2 |
DOWN |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,B |
3.1 |
6.0 |
UP |
3.8 |
UP |
|
|
|
A look back
at the 2008 Wide Receiver Projections -
77 % Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Moss,R |
22.1 |
14.8 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Owens,T |
14.1 |
14.2 |
UP |
10.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wayne,R |
13.2 |
13.2 |
UP |
9.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,B |
14.1 |
13.1 |
DOWN |
6.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fitzgerald,L |
15.5 |
13.0 |
DOWN |
13.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Houshmandzadeh,T |
13.4 |
12.8 |
DOWN |
8.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,A |
8.3 |
12.7 |
UP |
12.8 |
UP |
|
|
Colston,M |
13.3 |
12.7 |
DOWN |
10.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Marshall,B |
12.0 |
12.4 |
UP |
10.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
7.4 |
11.3 |
UP |
12.8 |
UP |
|
|
Burress,P |
11.7 |
10.7 |
DOWN |
7.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boldin,A |
8.8 |
10.7 |
UP |
14.7 |
UP |
|
|
Smith,S |
10.6 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
13.0 |
UP |
|
|
Welker,W |
10.6 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
12.3 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
6.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Harrison,M |
1.9 |
10.3 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
White,R |
9.8 |
10.2 |
UP |
11.3 |
UP |
|
|
Holmes,S |
9.0 |
10.2 |
UP |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jennings,G |
11.7 |
10.1 |
DOWN |
11.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Holt,T |
10.1 |
9.5 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Williams,R |
7.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Burleson,N |
7.8 |
9.2 |
UP |
12.0 |
UP |
|
|
Cotchery,J |
8.1 |
9.2 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crayton,P |
7.0 |
9.1 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Berrian,B |
8.3 |
9.1 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Bowe,D |
7.7 |
9.1 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Moss,S |
7.1 |
8.8 |
UP |
10.1 |
UP |
|
|
Ward,H |
8.3 |
8.7 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Coles,L |
6.3 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Evans,L |
7.2 |
8.1 |
UP |
8.1 |
UP |
|
|
Driver,D |
7.3 |
8.1 |
UP |
8.2 |
UP |
|
|
Rice,S |
4.3 |
8.1 |
UP |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chambers,C |
7.6 |
8.0 |
UP |
6.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Walter,K |
6.7 |
7.7 |
UP |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,D |
0.0 |
7.6 |
UP |
7.3 |
UP |
|
|
Galloway,J |
8.6 |
7.5 |
DOWN |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ginn Jr.,T |
3.6 |
7.4 |
UP |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
6.6 |
7.2 |
UP |
5.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Royal,E |
0.0 |
7.2 |
UP |
9.3 |
UP |
|
|
Stallworth,D |
7.4 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
2.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henderson,D |
4.7 |
7.1 |
UP |
7.1 |
UP |
|
|
Muhammad,M |
4.7 |
6.9 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,V |
5.0 |
6.8 |
UP |
10.6 |
UP |
|
|
Mason,D |
8.7 |
6.8 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Walker,J |
1.8 |
6.6 |
UP |
3.7 |
UP |
|
|
Meachem,R |
0.0 |
6.6 |
UP |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Branch,D |
6.4 |
6.5 |
UP |
8.2 |
UP |
|
|
Gonzalez,A |
5.1 |
6.4 |
UP |
5.7 |
UP |
|
|
Henry,C |
3.5 |
6.3 |
UP |
3.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gage,J |
10.9 |
6.1 |
DOWN |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Porter,J |
26.8 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
3.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Northcutt,D |
6.7 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Curry,R |
6.0 |
6.0 |
UP |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
McDonald,S |
8.2 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,D |
5.2 |
6.0 |
UP |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,B |
4.1 |
5.9 |
UP |
5.6 |
UP |
|
|
Hardy,J |
0.0 |
5.9 |
UP |
5.2 |
UP |
|
|
Clayton,M |
3.3 |
5.9 |
UP |
7.2 |
UP |
|
|
Engram,B |
21.6 |
5.9 |
DOWN |
4.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Hester,D |
2.6 |
5.8 |
UP |
6.0 |
UP |
|
|
|
A look back at the 2008 Tight End Projections
- 72% Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Witten,J |
9.8 |
9.0 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gates,A |
9.5 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Winslow,K |
8.8 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gonzalez,T |
9.8 |
8.3 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
UP |
|
|
Cooley,C |
7.9 |
8.2 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
10.9 |
7.8 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shockey,J |
5.4 |
6.4 |
UP |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,Z |
4.1 |
5.8 |
UP |
5.6 |
UP |
|
|
Scheffler,T |
6.5 |
5.7 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
UP |
|
|
Heap,T |
1.9 |
5.7 |
UP |
4.4 |
UP |
|
|
Daniels,O |
6.8 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
6.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,H |
6.2 |
5.5 |
DOWN |
5.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crumpler,A |
4.6 |
5.5 |
UP |
2.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lee,D |
6.3 |
5.3 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Watson,B |
5.8 |
5.2 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lewis,M |
3.4 |
5.2 |
UP |
4.4 |
UP |
|
|
Olsen,G |
3.4 |
5.1 |
UP |
5.8 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,V |
7.5 |
5.0 |
DOWN |
3.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Keller,D |
0.0 |
4.9 |
UP |
5.1 |
UP |
|
|
Boss,K |
1.6 |
4.7 |
UP |
6.8 |
UP |
|
|
King,J |
4.4 |
4.6 |
UP |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
McMichael,R |
3.8 |
4.6 |
UP |
3.8 |
UP |
|
|
Utecht,B |
2.8 |
4.6 |
UP |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,L |
1.9 |
4.3 |
UP |
4.0 |
UP |
|
|
Clark,D |
4.9 |
4.3 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Carlson,J |
0.0 |
4.2 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Pope,L |
3.4 |
3.9 |
UP |
1.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stevens,J |
3.9 |
3.6 |
DOWN |
4.6 |
UP |
|
|
Baker,C |
3.7 |
3.6 |
DOWN |
1.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,A |
4.1 |
3.4 |
DOWN |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,D |
3.1 |
3.3 |
UP |
4.5 |
UP |
|
|
Shiancoe,V |
5.4 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
6.4 |
UP |
|
|
Scaife,B |
3.4 |
3.2 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
UP |
|
|
Fasano,A |
1.3 |
3.0 |
UP |
6.7 |
UP |
|
|
Gaines,M |
2.1 |
2.9 |
UP |
2.9 |
UP |
|
|
Royal,R |
2.7 |
2.8 |
UP |
3.2 |
UP |
|
|
Franks,B |
1.9 |
2.7 |
UP |
1.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,B |
4.5 |
2.6 |
DOWN |
5.3 |
UP |
|
|
Campbell,D |
0.0 |
2.6 |
UP |
2.1 |
UP |
|
|
Martin,D |
3.8 |
2.4 |
DOWN |
4.1 |
UP |
|
|
Walker,D |
3.3 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
2.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
|
A look back at the 2008 Place Kicker Projections
- 73% Success
|
|
2007 |
2008 |
2008 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gould,R. |
8.6 |
9.7 |
UP |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Folk,N. |
8.4 |
9.3 |
UP |
7.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gostkowski,S. |
8.8 |
9.2 |
UP |
9.9 |
UP |
|
|
Kaeding,N. |
7.7 |
9.1 |
UP |
8.3 |
UP |
|
|
Vinatieri,A. |
7.4 |
8.9 |
UP |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,S. |
8.5 |
8.9 |
UP |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crosby,M. |
9.0 |
8.4 |
DOWN |
8.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Reed,J. |
7.3 |
8.2 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Rackers,N. |
6.8 |
8.1 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Bironas,R. |
8.4 |
8.1 |
DOWN |
9.0 |
| | | |
