2019 NFLTM Player Projections
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How we did with our 2018 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last season, our software ranked Ju-Ju Smith Schuster 1 round ahead of his ADP, Chris Carson 2 rounds ahead of ADP, Nick Chubb 3 rounds ahead of ADP, Patrick Mahomes 4 rounds ahead of his ADP, Calvin Ridley 5 rounds ahead of his ADP, Kenny Galloway, Tyler Lockett, and George Kittle 6 rounds ahead of their ADP.  These are just a few examples of the many calls we made in 2018.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2018: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70% correct

Running Backs:  31 out of top 40 = 78% correct

Wide Receivers: 44 out of top 60 = 73% correct

Tight Ends: 21 out of top 30 = 70% correct

Place Kickers: 15 out of the top 25 = 60% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years: 17/16/15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/04/03/02

A look back: 2018 Quarterback Projections - 70 % Success

  2017 2018 2018 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Patrick Mahomes 0.9 17.8 UP 29.4 UP
Matt Ryan 17.2 19.1 UP 25.6 UP
B. Roethlisberger 20.1 17.5 DOWN 24.3 UP
Deshaun Watson 26.3 20.3 DOWN 23.7 DOWN
Andrew Luck 0.0 18.7 UP 23.2 UP
Jared Goff 20.0 19.0 DOWN 22.6 UP
Aaron Rodgers 21.1 22.3 UP 22.3 UP
Drew Brees 19.1 22.1 UP 22.9 UP
Russell Wilson 24.4 19.5 DOWN 20.9 DOWN
Kirk Cousins 20.6 19.6 DOWN 20.8 UP
Dak Prescott 18.8 19.0 UP 20.8 UP
Tom Brady 21.5 19.1 DOWN 20.5 DOWN
Philip Rivers 19.9 17.5 DOWN 20.0 UP
Cam Newton 20.8 23.3 UP 22.3 UP
Mitch Trubisky 10.1 18.8 UP 20.9 UP
Eli Manning 14.5 16.5 UP 17.8 UP
Derek Carr 16.2 16.8 UP 16.8 UP
Matthew Stafford 20.5 18.7 DOWN 16.1 DOWN
Case Keenum 17.1 17.8 UP 16.1 DOWN
Carson Wentz 24.1 28.9 UP 21.2 DOWN
Jameis Winston 19.2 20.6 UP 21.1 UP
Blake Bortles 17.9 21.3 UP 16.0 DOWN
Marcus Mariota 16.3 22.5 UP 14.6 DOWN
Andy Dalton 15.8 24.5 UP 18.2 UP
Ryan Fitzpatrick 6.1 5.3 DOWN 23.7 UP
Joe Flacco 13.4 24.9 UP 18.2 UP
Nick Foles 2.9 15.7 UP 18.8 UP
Jimmy Garoppolo 6.4 98.8 UP 17.7 UP
Tyrod Taylor 17.0 9.0 DOWN 0.0 DOWN
Blaine Gabbert 9.4 1.5 DOWN 0.0 DOWN

A look back: 2018 Running Back Projections - 78 % Success

  2017 2018 2018 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Todd Gurley 21.5 21.8 UP 26.3 UP
Christian McCaffrey 9.4 16.9 UP 23.9 UP
Alvin Kamara 14.6 19.8 UP 23.2 UP
Ezekiel Elliott 17.9 21.7 UP 22.1 UP
James Conner 1.0 3.5 UP 21.5 UP
Melvin Gordon 14.4 16.5 UP 22.7 UP
Kareem Hunt 15.3 18.9 UP 20.9 UP
Joe Mixon 8.2 14.6 UP 17.4 UP
David Johnson 9.0 22.2 UP 15.6 UP
James White 5.6 7.9 UP 17.3 UP
Derrick Henry 7.8 12.2 UP 12.7 UP
Chris Carson 8.3 5.6 DOWN 14.6 UP
Adrian Peterson 7.2 3.8 DOWN 0.0 DOWN
Tarik Cohen 5.7 10.6 UP 14.8 UP
Jordan Howard 11.2 13.4 UP 11.4 UP
Tevin Coleman 9.4 11.2 UP 12.1 UP
Marlon Mack 5.9 10.9 UP 14.8 UP
Kenyan Drake 7.0 14.5 UP 13.0 UP
Lamar Miller 9.9 11.3 UP 0.0 DOWN
Aaron Jones 5.9 10.1 UP 14.4 UP
Matt Breida 5.2 6.3 UP 11.8 UP
Peyton Barber 4.5 4.2 DOWN 9.5 UP
Austin Ekeler 5.6 8.1 UP 12.2 UP
Mark Ingram 14.1 13.0 DOWN 0.0 DOWN
TJ Yeldon 6.0 7.1 UP 12.5 UP
Isaiah Crowell 7.3 10.8 UP 10.8 UP
Dalvin Cook 14.0 18.2 UP 14.2 UP
Latavius Murray 8.9 6.8 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Doug Martin 6.1 6.6 UP 0.0 DOWN
Dion Lewis 10.3 11.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Mike Davis 6.2 2.0 DOWN 9.1 UP
Alex Collins 10.1 9.5 DOWN 11.5 UP
Leonard Fournette 14.9 18.3 UP 15.0 UP
LeSean McCoy 12.9 15.2 UP 0.0 DOWN
Jalen Richard 4.1 5.3 UP 10.1 UP
Frank Gore 9.1 9.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Carlos Hyde 11.1 9.9 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Wendell Smallwood 4.3 4.7 UP 7.3 UP
LeGarrette Blount 6.3 6.2 DOWN 0.0 DOWN
Elijah McGuire 3.8 4.3 UP 11.3 UP

 

A look back: 2018 Wide Receiver Projections - 73 % Success

  2017 2018 2018 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Tyreek Hill 11.1 14.4 UP 20.5 UP
DeAndre Hopkins 14.4 18.2 UP 21.1 UP
Antonio Brown 14.8 19.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Julio Jones 10.3 17.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Davante Adams 10.6 18.5 UP 21.9 UP
Mike Evans 8.7 16.2 UP 18.3 UP
Michael Thomas 9.7 17.0 UP 20.0 UP
Adam Thielen 9.6 14.4 UP 19.2 UP
JuJu Smith-Schuster 9.6 13.9 UP 18.6 UP
Robert Woods 9.1 12.1 UP 16.6 UP
Tyler Lockett 4.6 9.9 UP 13.8 UP
Brandin Cooks 9.6 13.8 UP 15.2 UP
Keenan Allen 11.4 17.1 UP 16.3 UP
T.Y. Hilton 7.6 16.2 UP 0.0 DOWN
Stefon Diggs 9.6 14.5 UP 17.6 UP
Odell Beckham Jr 12.3 25.3 UP 18.3 UP
Tyler Boyd 3.5 6.2 UP 15.8 UP
Amari Cooper 7.9 14.8 UP 14.6 UP
Kenny Golladay 6.1 11.1 UP 13.8 UP
Jarvis Landry 9.5 12.8 UP 13.4 UP
Mike Williams 1.0 9.3 UP 11.1 UP
Emmanuel Sanders 5.7 14.6 UP 0.0 DOWN
Chris Godwin 3.7 7.7 UP 11.6 UP
Alshon Jeffery 8.3 15.3 UP 0.0 DOWN
Corey Davis 3.8 12.1 UP 11.5 UP
Mohamed Sanu 6.7 9.4 UP 0.0 DOWN
Larry Fitzgerald 9.5 13.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Sterling Shepard 7.8 12.8 UP 11.3 UP
Adam Humphries 4.4 7.7 UP 11.8 UP
Dede Westbrook 5.7 9.8 UP 11.1 UP
Robby Anderson 8.6 13.2 UP 11.4 UP
DeSean Jackson 6.4 12.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Zay Jones 2.9 8.9 UP 10.2 UP
Golden Tate 8.3 15.4 UP 0.0 DOWN
AJ Green 9.8 28.0 UP 0.0 DOWN
John Brown 5.4 6.6 UP 9.0 UP
Nelson Agholor 8.3 11.7 UP 10.3 UP
Allen Robinson 2.0 18.9 UP 11.9 UP
Curtis Samuel 2.0 5.4 UP 10.7 UP
Josh Gordon 8.0 17.7 UP 11.6 UP
Demaryius Thomas 7.8 14.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Tyrell Williams 6.1 9.6 UP 8.6 UP
Kenny Stills 7.6 12.1 UP 8.5 UP
Cooper Kupp 7.8 24.6 UP 16.9 UP
Doug Baldwin 9.1 19.8 UP 0.0 DOWN
Jordy Nelson 5.6 13.3 UP 0.0 DOWN
Taylor Gabriel 3.3 5.1 UP 9.6 UP
Cole Beasley 3.7 7.1 UP 0.0 DOWN
Donte Moncrief 4.3 7.7 UP 8.3 UP
Rashard Higgins 2.9 6.4 UP 9.2 UP
Marvin Jones 10.3 23.4 UP 0.0 DOWN
Devin Funchess 8.3 14.5 UP 8.8 UP
Sammy Watkins 7.1 18.1 UP 11.5 UP
Will Fuller 8.5 24.9 UP 15.1 UP
Kendrick Bourne 2.4 0.0 DOWN 7.2 UP
Willie Snead 0.9 8.6 UP 8.4 UP
Cordarrelle Patterson 3.4 7.0 UP 6.2 UP
Albert Wilson 5.7 17.6 UP 13.0 UP
Josh Doctson 5.3 10.9 UP 7.3 UP
Marquise Goodwin 7.1 19.5 UP 7.9 UP

A look back: 2018 Tight End Projections - 70 % Success

  2017 2018 2018 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Travis Kelce 10.2 12.6 UP 18.6 UP
George Kittle 4.3 9.7 UP 16.1 UP
Zach Ertz 9.3 12.3 UP 17.5 UP
Eric Ebron 5.1 7.9 UP 14.0 UP
Jared Cook 5.1 8.9 UP 0.0 DOWN
Trey Burton 3.7 6.5 UP 9.2 UP
Austin Hooper 4.4 9.1 UP 10.1 UP
David Njoku 3.9 8.3 UP 9.0 UP
Kyle Rudolph 6.3 9.9 UP 0.0 DOWN
OJ Howard 5.6 7.6 UP 12.1 UP
Rob Gronkowski 12.0 14.0 UP 0.0 DOWN
Vance McDonald 2.5 7.9 UP 9.0 UP
Evan Engram 7.3 11.0 UP 11.3 UP
Jimmy Graham 7.0 9.9 UP 0.0 DOWN
Jordan Reed 5.5 9.7 UP 9.4 UP
Cameron Brate 5.9 9.6 UP 5.9 DOWN
CJ Uzomah 1.1 1.3 UP 6.6 UP
Jesse James 3.4 5.0 UP 5.3 UP
Greg Olsen 3.6 12.0 UP 0.0 DOWN
Benjamin Watson 4.8 9.2 UP 0.0 DOWN
Gerald Everett 2.4 5.9 UP 5.3 UP
Blake Jarwin 0.0 0.0 DOWN 4.8 UP
Vernon Davis 6.2 6.1 DOWN 0.0 DOWN
Antonio Gates 3.1 6.5 UP 0.0 DOWN
Nick Vannett 1.3 3.8 UP 4.9 UP
Jonnu Smith 1.8 3.2 UP 4.9 UP
Tyler Higbee 2.4 4.9 UP 4.1 UP
Ricky Seals-Jones 4.8 7.9 UP 4.9 UP
Jeff Heuerman 1.9 2.4 UP 6.5 UP
Jack Doyle 6.2 8.5 UP 10.5 UP

A look back: 2018 Kicker Projections - 60 % Success

  2017 2018 2018 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Ka'imi Fairbairn 6.3 8.4 UP 10.8 UP
Justin Tucker 9.1 12.1 UP 10.1 UP
Jason Myers 8.8 1.9 DOWN 9.6 UP
Wil Lutz 9.1 10.5 UP 9.5 UP
Mason Crosby 5.0 8.8 UP 9.2 UP
Aldrick Rosas 4.9 6.5 UP 8.9 UP
Sam Ficken 8.0 0.0 DOWN 8.9 UP
Jake Elliott 6.4 10.9 UP 8.9 UP
Harrison Butker 7.8 11.6 UP 8.9 UP
Zane Gonzalez 3.6 5.1 UP 8.9 UP
Robbie Gould 10.0 11.2 UP 8.8 DOWN
Stephen Gostkowski 9.9 11.2 UP 8.7 DOWN
Greg Zuerlein 13.0 16.4 UP 10.8 DOWN
Adam Vinatieri 6.7 10.0 UP 8.1 UP
Cody Parkey 4.8 8.7 UP 7.8 UP
Matt Prater 8.9 10.0 UP 7.8 DOWN
Dustin Hopkins 6.8 9.4 UP 7.6 UP
Ryan Succop 8.6 10.1 UP 7.5 DOWN
Matt Bryant 8.6 12.0 UP 7.3 DOWN
Randy Bullock 4.9 7.7 UP 6.8 UP
Steven Hauschka 7.3 10.5 UP 6.7 DOWN
Brandon McManus 6.4 8.4 UP 6.6 UP
Dan Bailey 5.4 10.2 UP 7.1 UP
Chris Boswell 9.6 10.9 UP 5.9 DOWN
Mike Nugent 6.1 13.1 UP 9.0 UP

 

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