2013 NFLTM Player Projections
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"Award Winning Fantistics .... Consider it fantasy's version of the theory of relativity."
 
 
 
 

 

 

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on approximately 75% of the players.

Last season, our software ranked top-10 wide receivers Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffery 2 rounds ahead of their ADP. Tight End Julius Thomas, 12 rounds ahead of his ADP. Top-5 Runningback Knowshon Moreno 9 rounds ahead of his ADP, and rookie sensations Eddie Lacy and Giovanni Bernard 2 rounds ahead of their ADP.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2013: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70% correct

Running Backs:  29 out of top 40 = 73% correct

Wide Receivers: 42 out of top 60 = 70% correct

Tight Ends: 25 out of top 30 = 83% correct

Place Kickers: 22 out of the top 30 = 73% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.  Previous Years 2013/12/'11/'10/'09/'08/'07/'06/'05/'04/'03/'02

A look back: 2013 Quarterback Projections - 70 % Success

  2012 2013 2013 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Manning,Pe 22.5 23.2 UP 29.8 UP
Brees,Dr 25.0 23.4 DOWN 25.8 UP
Dalton,An 18.5 18.6 UP 21.1 UP
Rivers,Ph 16.1 15.4 DOWN 21.0 UP
Newton,Ca 23.0 23.0 DOWN 20.9 DOWN
Stafford,Ma 20.7 20.8 UP 20.6 DOWN
Luck,An 20.6 21.1 UP 20.5 DOWN
Wilson,Ru 19.6 20.9 UP 19.6 UP
Roethlisberger,Be 19.7 16.8 DOWN 19.6 DOWN
Kaepernick,Co 15.1 20.7 UP 19.0 UP
Ryan,Ma 22.2 21.6 DOWN 18.8 DOWN
Romo,To 20.6 20.1 DOWN 20.0 DOWN
Brady,To 24.3 23.1 DOWN 18.6 DOWN
Smith,Al 13.0 15.4 UP 19.4 UP
Foles,Ni 13.7 8.9 DOWN 22.2 UP
Tannehill,Ry 13.7 16.4 UP 18.0 UP
Palmer,Ca 18.0 17.5 DOWN 16.6 DOWN
Griffin III,Ro 23.7 21.4 DOWN 19.2 DOWN
Flacco,Jo 17.4 16.3 DOWN 15.4 DOWN
Smith,Ge - 11.0 - 14.5 - -
Manning,El 17.2 18.2 UP 13.3 DOWN
Fitzpatrick,Ry 16.3 5.8 DOWN 17.7 UP
Rodgers,Aa 24.6 23.5 DOWN 21.6 DOWN
Cutler,Ja 14.9 16.4 UP 17.7 UP
Henne,Ch 13.9 13.6 DOWN 12.9 DOWN
Glennon,Mi - 2.3 - 14.8 - -
Pryor,Te 13.5 16.8 UP 15.1 UP
Manuel,EJ - 18.0 - 15.5 - -
McCown,Jo - 0.0 - 19.3 - -
Campbell,Ja 3.3 1.8 DOWN 15.7 UP
Bradford,Sa 16.4 17.6 UP 19.4 UP
Ponder,Ch 14.4 14.3 DOWN 14.6 UP
Vick,Mi 18.7 16.5 DOWN 15.6 DOWN
Weeden,Br 13.4 0.0 DOWN 12.0 DOWN
Clemens,Ke 0.2 14.8 UP 11.4 UP

A look back: 2013 Running Back Projections - 73 % Success

  2012 2013 2013 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Charles,Ja 13.2 14.0 UP 20.8 UP
McCoy,Le 12.6 13.9 UP 17.5 UP
Forte,Ma 12.0 13.3 UP 16.6 UP
Lynch,Ma 15.7 13.3 DOWN 15.1 DOWN
Moreno,Kn 10.4 7.9 DOWN 14.8 UP
Peterson,Ad 19.3 17.6 DOWN 15.0 DOWN
Lacy,Ed 2.4 11.9 UP 14.0 UP
Murray,De 11.5 12.0 UP 14.8 UP
Johnson,Ch 11.4 12.5 UP 12.6 UP
Bush,Re 11.0 12.0 UP 13.8 UP
Jackson,Fr 8.9 7.8 DOWN 11.7 UP
Mathews,Ry 8.5 10.9 UP 11.7 UP
Gore,Fr 12.8 11.3 DOWN 11.3 DOWN
Morris,Al 15.4 13.5 DOWN 11.1 DOWN
Bell,Le - 10.8 - 13.4 - -
Bernard,Gi - 10.8 - 10.6 - -
Bell,Jo 6.7 6.6 DOWN 10.5 UP
Stacy,Za - 6.3 - 11.4 - -
Woodhead,Da 7.3 7.1 DOWN 9.4 UP
Jones-Drew,Ma 10.3 11.9 UP 9.7 DOWN
Williams,De 8.4 8.3 DOWN 9.4 UP
Jennings,Ra 5.3 4.1 DOWN 9.2 UP
Thomas,Pi 6.3 8.2 UP 8.5 UP
Mendenhall,Ra 5.1 8.1 UP 8.7 UP
Ellington,An - 3.7 - 8.4 - -
Ridley,St 12.7 12.6 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Spiller,CJ 13.6 14.7 UP 8.3 DOWN
Brown,Do 5.2 3.9 DOWN 7.7 UP
Blount,Le 2.1 6.3 UP 7.7 UP
Rice,Ra 13.9 13.4 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Green-Ellis,Be 9.7 8.7 DOWN 7.5 DOWN
Jackson,St 10.0 11.6 UP 9.6 DOWN
Tate,Be 4.1 8.7 UP 8.2 UP
Richardson,Tr 13.6 14.4 UP 7.0 DOWN
Sproles,Da 10.7 10.1 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Powell,Bi 5.8 8.3 UP 6.5 UP
Ivory,Ch 5.9 8.1 UP 6.8 UP
Miller,La 2.7 10.7 UP 6.2 UP
Rainey,Bo - 0.0 - 6.1 - -
Tolbert,Mi 5.7 7.6 UP 6.0 UP
Ball,Mo - 9.8 - 5.9 - -
Rodgers,Ja 5.5 6.3 UP 6.1 UP
Vereen,Sh 4.9 10.3 UP 10.9 UP
Foster,Ar 16.6 13.2 DOWN 10.6 DOWN

A look back: 2013 Wide Receiver Projections - 70 % Success

  2012 2013 2013 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gordon,Jo 6.9 13.3 UP 16.2 UP
Thomas,De 12.8 12.4 DOWN 14.2 UP
Johnson,Ca 14.2 12.0 DOWN 15.8 UP
Green,AJ 12.8 10.8 DOWN 13.0 UP
Bryant,De 13.1 9.2 DOWN 12.7 DOWN
Marshall,Br 13.5 8.6 DOWN 12.6 DOWN
Brown,An 8.5 7.8 DOWN 12.4 UP
Decker,Er 11.5 8.8 DOWN 12.2 UP
Jeffery,Al 5.5 9.3 UP 12.2 UP
Jackson,De 7.4 10.4 UP 11.7 UP
Nelson,Jo 9.7 10.0 UP 11.2 UP
Johnson,An 11.5 10.5 DOWN 10.7 DOWN
Garcon,Pi 8.6 8.6 UP 10.4 UP
Jackson,Vi 11.7 10.6 DOWN 10.3 DOWN
Boldin,An 7.8 7.4 DOWN 10.1 UP
Fitzgerald,La 6.5 6.5 DOWN 9.8 UP
Allen,Ke - 9.7 - 10.2 - -
Edelman,Ju 4.6 9.2 UP 8.9 UP
Hilton,TY 8.7 5.6 DOWN 8.7 DOWN
Welker,We 10.8 9.5 DOWN 10.6 DOWN
Jones,Ma 2.8 8.1 UP 8.6 UP
Smith,To 8.4 1.9 DOWN 8.6 UP
Floyd,Mi 4.3 8.8 UP 8.5 UP
Cooper,Ri 3.9 6.4 UP 8.3 UP
Wallace,Mi 8.8 9.1 UP 7.9 DOWN
Hartline,Br 7.1 10.7 UP 7.9 UP
Colston,Ma 11.0 8.0 DOWN 8.3 DOWN
Cruz,Vi 10.6 2.4 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Tate,Go 7.5 7.0 DOWN 7.7 UP
Cotchery,Je 1.6 2.2 UP 7.5 UP
Wright,Ke 5.8 6.7 UP 7.5 UP
Douglas,Ha 3.1 1.3 DOWN 7.4 UP
Streater,Ro 4.8 7.1 UP 7.2 UP
Royal,Ed 3.2 6.1 UP 7.5 UP
Sanders,Em 4.3 3.9 DOWN 7.0 UP
Washington,Na 6.1 6.8 UP 6.9 UP
Baldwin,Do 3.9 8.3 UP 6.8 UP
Patterson,Co - 3.2 - 6.5 - -
Jennings,Gr 6.7 9.0 UP 7.0 UP
Williams,Te - 7.7 - 6.5 - -
Jones,Ja 10.2 9.0 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Moore,De 7.7 9.9 UP 7.7 DOWN
Smith,St 9.0 7.5 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Bowe,Dw 7.5 8.5 UP 6.5 DOWN
Randle,Ru 3.0 7.5 UP 6.1 UP
Shorts,Ce 10.0 7.1 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Stills,Ke - 0.0 - 5.9 - -
LaFell,Br 6.8 8.0 UP 5.9 DOWN
Brown,Ma - 0.1 - 6.7 - -
Hopkins,De - 9.1 - 5.8 - -
Boykin,Ja 0.3 10.2 UP 5.8 UP
Nicks,Ha 6.7 -0.2 DOWN 6.0 DOWN
White,Ro 11.1 0.0 DOWN 6.4 DOWN
Ginn,Te 0.1 8.9 UP 5.5 UP
Wright,Ti - 8.6 - 5.5 - -
Austin,Ta - 1.9 - 6.7 - -
Johnson,St 8.8 8.3 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Simpson,Je 2.1 4.4 UP 4.9 UP
Woods,Ro - 9.2 - 5.6 - -
Dobson,Aa - 10.9 - 6.3 - -
Amendola,Da 7.1 11.8 UP 6.3 DOWN
Cobb,Ra 10.4 6.4 DOWN 12.5 UP
Avery,Do 6.1 3.2 DOWN 4.5 DOWN
Kerley,Je 6.0 5.6 DOWN 6.0 DOWN
Jones,Ju 11.4 7.1 DOWN 14.1 UP
Thompkins,Ke - 6.9 - 5.9 - -
Underwood,Ti 3.9 6.0 UP 5.7 UP
Pettis,Au 3.6 9.2 UP 4.0 UP
McCluster,De 3.6 4.7 UP 4.2 UP
Wayne,Re 10.3 2.7 DOWN 9.0 DOWN
Durham,Kr 4.6 4.4 DOWN 3.8 DOWN

A look back: 2013 Tight End Projections - 83 % Success

  2012 2013 2013 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Graham,Ji 10.1 10.7 UP 13.6 UP
Davis,Ve 5.3 8.0 UP 10.9 UP
Thomas,Ju 0.0 7.3 UP 10.8 UP
Cameron,Jo 2.0 7.1 UP 8.9 UP
Witten,Ja 7.6 7.9 UP 8.3 UP
Gonzalez,To 8.8 7.8 DOWN 8.3 DOWN
Clay,Ch 2.6 4.5 UP 7.5 UP
Olsen,Gr 7.1 6.4 DOWN 7.4 UP
Gates,An 6.4 7.1 UP 7.0 UP
Bennett,Ma 5.8 6.4 UP 6.6 UP
Cook,Ja 5.9 6.6 UP 6.1 UP
Walker,De 3.2 5.0 UP 6.2 UP
Celek,Br 5.0 5.8 UP 5.4 UP
Fleener,Co 3.3 6.1 UP 5.3 UP
Graham,Ga 3.0 3.6 UP 6.5 UP
Gronkowski,Ro 13.2 10.0 DOWN 11.9 DOWN
Chandler,Sc 6.2 5.0 DOWN 4.8 DOWN
Myers,Br 6.5 6.7 UP 4.8 DOWN
Ertz,Za - 5.1 - 4.4 - -
Gresham,Je 6.5 5.9 DOWN 5.0 DOWN
Reed,Jo - 2.2 - 7.7 - -
Miller,Za 3.6 5.0 UP 4.9 UP
Miller,He 8.6 4.3 DOWN 4.7 DOWN
Rivera,My - 0.0 - 4.0 - -
Cumberland,Je 3.6 5.4 UP 4.3 UP
Fauria,Jo - 0.0 - 3.9 - -
Lewis,Ma 4.9 5.4 UP 5.4 UP
Eifert,Ty - 6.8 - 3.8 - -
Green,La 1.9 1.2 DOWN 3.5 UP
Pettigrew,Br 5.3 6.5 UP 3.8 DOWN
Clark,Da 4.2 4.7 UP 4.4 UP
Housler,Ro 2.8 5.8 UP 4.0 UP
Winslow,Ke 1.2 0.2 DOWN 4.2 UP
Kendricks,La 4.7 3.6 DOWN 3.3 DOWN
Finley,Je 4.9 7.2 UP 8.0 UP

A look back: 2013 Kicker Projections - 83 % Success

  2012 2013 2013 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gostkowski,S. 10.4 10.4 DOWN 11.2 UP
Prater,M. 9.0 9.0 DOWN 10.6 UP
Tucker,J. 9.4 9.5 UP 10.1 UP
Vinatieri,A. 8.3 9.4 UP 10.1 UP
Hauschka,S. 7.8 8.6 UP 10.0 UP
Dawson,P. 8.5 10.6 UP 9.9 UP
Crosby,M. 7.9 9.2 UP 9.8 UP
Novak,N. 7.2 8.7 UP 9.8 UP
Bailey,D. 8.6 9.9 UP 9.6 UP
Carpenter,D. 7.4 6.9 DOWN 9.3 UP
Feely,J. 7.0 8.6 UP 9.0 UP
Folk,N. 6.5 7.4 UP 9.0 UP
Walsh,B. 10.5 10.8 UP 8.7 DOWN
Suisham,S. 8.3 8.7 UP 8.6 UP
Gould,R. 8.2 8.4 UP 8.4 UP
Gano,G. 8.5 7.8 DOWN 8.2 DOWN
Succop,R. 7.2 8.9 UP 7.9 UP
Bironas,R. 7.3 9.8 UP 7.8 UP
Henery,A. 7.3 10.0 UP 7.7 UP
Bryant,M. 10.1 10.5 UP 7.6 DOWN
Zuerlein,G. 7.3 9.7 UP 7.6 UP
Nugent,M. 7.1 8.8 UP 7.4 UP
Hartley,G. 7.4 8.8 UP 8.4 UP
Bullock,R. - 9.1 - 7.3 - -
Janikowski,S. 8.4 9.8 UP 7.1 DOWN
Lindell,R. 6.9 7.2 UP 7.0 UP
Akers,D. 8.9 9.5 UP 6.8 DOWN
Cundiff,B. 8.2 7.2 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Scobee,J. 6.6 7.8 UP 6.4 DOWN
Brown,J. 11.5 9.3 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Forbath,K. 8.8 8.5 DOWN 6.6 DOWN
Sturgis,C. - 8.5 - 6.6 - -

 

 

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