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The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize us for injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
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A Look back
at the 2006 Quarterback Projections -
80 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Palmer,C |
19.1 |
18.0 |
DOWN |
18.2 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Brady,T |
18.5 |
17.0 |
DOWN |
16.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,P |
17.8 |
19.6 |
UP |
22.1 |
UP |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
22.4 |
17.0 |
DOWN |
14.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Manning,E |
16.5 |
15.7 |
DOWN |
14.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bledsoe,D |
42.8 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
14.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Green,T |
32.1 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brees,D |
16.0 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
19.1 |
UP |
 |
|
Collins,K |
63.5 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
4.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Plummer,J |
15.8 |
16.2 |
UP |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Vick,M |
15.6 |
15.2 |
DOWN |
18.4 |
UP |
|
|
Delhomme,J |
18.8 |
14.5 |
DOWN |
14.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brunell,M |
23.6 |
13.0 |
DOWN |
11.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Favre,B |
13.9 |
14.9 |
UP |
14.9 |
UP |
|
|
McNair,S |
13.8 |
15.6 |
UP |
13.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brooks,A |
25.3 |
14.1 |
DOWN |
8.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Carr,D |
12.2 |
14.5 |
UP |
11.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Roethlisberger,B |
12.9 |
14.1 |
UP |
14.9 |
UP |
|
|
McNabb,D |
18.3 |
16.7 |
DOWN |
23.2 |
UP |
|
|
Leftwich,B |
29.2 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
15.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Warner,K |
23.4 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
11.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bulger,M |
9.7 |
16.7 |
UP |
18.7 |
UP |
|
|
Johnson,B |
9.3 |
12.1 |
UP |
10.5 |
UP |
|
|
Harrington,J |
12.1 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
12.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Simms,C |
43.7 |
12.1 |
DOWN |
8.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boller,K |
24.6 |
3.8 |
DOWN |
8.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCown,J |
40.0 |
4.5 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bollinger,B |
53.5 |
2.0 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Garrard,D |
9.5 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Culpepper,D |
24.8 |
16.8 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Losman,J |
6.1 |
11.1 |
UP |
13.8 |
UP |
|
|
Griese,B |
12.0 |
9.8 |
DOWN |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Martin,J |
4.4 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
0.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Frye,C |
4.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
10.5 |
UP |
|
|
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|
A Look back
at the 2006 RunningBack Projections -
84 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Alexander,S |
36.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
13.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,L |
20.9 |
22.5 |
UP |
20.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Barber,T |
19.1 |
17.1 |
DOWN |
15.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Tomlinson,L |
18.9 |
19.7 |
UP |
26.7 |
UP |
|
|
James,E |
16.8 |
14.5 |
DOWN |
10.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Portis,C |
29.9 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
13.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,R |
14.2 |
14.3 |
UP |
13.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jordan,L |
22.5 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,T |
12.6 |
9.3 |
DOWN |
10.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Anderson,M |
13.4 |
5.1 |
DOWN |
2.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jackson,S |
12.3 |
14.6 |
UP |
20.6 |
UP |
|
|
Dunn,W |
11.8 |
12.2 |
UP |
10.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
McGahee,W |
12.4 |
12.0 |
DOWN |
10.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,W |
10.8 |
12.6 |
UP |
16.7 |
UP |
|
|
Droughns,R |
12.3 |
11.3 |
DOWN |
8.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Dillon,C |
10.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
10.9 |
UP |
|
|
Westbrook,B |
11.0 |
12.1 |
UP |
17.2 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,C |
11.6 |
13.9 |
UP |
7.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,C |
32.0 |
8.2 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,J |
9.4 |
10.3 |
UP |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bell,T |
11.6 |
9.1 |
DOWN |
7.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brown,R |
11.1 |
13.4 |
UP |
12.2 |
UP |
|
|
Foster,D |
10.2 |
11.2 |
UP |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lewis,J |
8.4 |
11.5 |
UP |
11.2 |
UP |
|
|
Davis,S |
8.8 |
4.0 |
DOWN |
2.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moore,M |
7.4 |
4.9 |
DOWN |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gado,S |
12.0 |
5.4 |
DOWN |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jones,K |
8.9 |
11.6 |
UP |
14.1 |
UP |
|
|
Taylor,F |
7.0 |
9.1 |
UP |
11.7 |
UP |
|
|
Barlow,K |
8.3 |
8.3 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Barber,M |
5.9 |
8.3 |
UP |
11.3 |
UP |
|
|
Gore,F |
5.8 |
11.9 |
UP |
17.0 |
UP |
|
|
Duckett,T |
8.4 |
7.1 |
DOWN |
2.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bennett,M |
8.2 |
3.5 |
DOWN |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pittman,M |
5.4 |
4.2 |
DOWN |
4.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Taylor,C |
5.6 |
11.3 |
UP |
12.4 |
UP |
|
|
Perry,C |
12.2 |
4.9 |
DOWN |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Alstott,M |
4.5 |
4.7 |
UP |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pinner,A |
5.9 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shipp,M |
4.7 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
2.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bryson,S |
10.8 |
5.0 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pass,P |
21.7 |
2.7 |
DOWN |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stecker,A |
5.3 |
2.1 |
DOWN |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fisher,T |
8.0 |
3.2 |
DOWN |
2.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
McAllister,D |
4.2 |
9.9 |
UP |
12.4 |
UP |
|
|
Arrington,J |
3.9 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Haynes,V |
8.1 |
2.3 |
DOWN |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Peterson,A |
3.5 |
3.9 |
UP |
1.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Sellers,M |
3.4 |
2.8 |
DOWN |
1.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Betts,L |
3.4 |
4.5 |
UP |
11.9 |
UP |
|
|
A Look back
at the 2006 Wide Receiver Projections -
77 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Smith,S |
16.9 |
12.0 |
DOWN |
12.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Fitzgerald,L |
15.8 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
8.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moss,S |
14.4 |
11.3 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,C |
12.6 |
13.1 |
UP |
11.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Galloway,J |
11.8 |
9.8 |
DOWN |
9.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Harrison,M |
11.7 |
12.4 |
UP |
13.0 |
UP |
|
|
Holt,T |
11.7 |
12.5 |
UP |
11.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Boldin,A |
11.7 |
11.9 |
UP |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chambers,C |
11.7 |
11.4 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Ward,H |
11.8 |
10.5 |
DOWN |
9.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Burress,P |
10.9 |
9.7 |
DOWN |
10.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Glenn,T |
10.1 |
9.3 |
DOWN |
8.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Driver,D |
9.6 |
9.9 |
UP |
11.2 |
UP |
|
|
Houshmandzadeh,T |
10.7 |
9.9 |
DOWN |
11.6 |
UP |
|
|
Moss,R |
11.5 |
11.4 |
DOWN |
5.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,R |
9.2 |
8.6 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCardell,K |
10.4 |
7.8 |
DOWN |
3.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Kennison,E |
9.1 |
8.5 |
DOWN |
7.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Stallworth,D |
11.4 |
8.5 |
DOWN |
8.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wayne,R |
8.5 |
9.8 |
UP |
11.6 |
UP |
|
|
Branch,D |
9.3 |
4.0 |
DOWN |
7.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Jurevicius,J |
9.9 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bryant,A |
8.9 |
9.3 |
UP |
6.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Mason,D |
7.8 |
10.0 |
UP |
5.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Curtis,K |
7.7 |
6.5 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Porter,J |
30.8 |
6.8 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,K |
7.5 |
6.9 |
DOWN |
6.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Evans,L |
7.5 |
9.3 |
UP |
11.1 |
UP |
|
|
Williams,R |
7.3 |
10.2 |
UP |
10.8 |
UP |
|
|
Coles,L |
7.2 |
8.5 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Owens,T |
7.1 |
12.1 |
UP |
12.3 |
UP |
|
|
Wilford,E |
6.9 |
8.7 |
UP |
4.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Toomer,A |
13.8 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
6.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Moulds,E |
6.6 |
7.6 |
UP |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lloyd,B |
6.9 |
8.9 |
UP |
2.4 |
DOWN |
|
|
Muhammad,M |
6.2 |
9.2 |
UP |
7.3 |
UP |
|
|
Bennett,D |
6.1 |
7.9 |
UP |
5.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Parker,E |
6.4 |
5.3 |
DOWN |
4.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Engram,B |
13.7 |
5.8 |
DOWN |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lelie,A |
6.1 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Booker,M |
6.2 |
6.6 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Givens,D |
17.4 |
6.7 |
DOWN |
2.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Taylor,T |
5.3 |
5.8 |
UP |
5.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
McCareins,J |
5.3 |
3.1 |
DOWN |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Johnson,A |
5.1 |
10.8 |
UP |
9.1 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,R |
5.1 |
8.7 |
UP |
8.6 |
UP |
|
|
Robinson,M |
8.2 |
5.8 |
DOWN |
6.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Chatman,A |
27.3 |
3.5 |
DOWN |
0.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Henry,C |
6.0 |
5.6 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jones,M |
5.6 |
6.9 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Gabriel,D |
4.9 |
7.3 |
UP |
4.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bradford,C |
8.1 |
5.4 |
DOWN |
1.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Bruce,I |
4.4 |
7.1 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
Horn,J |
7.1 |
9.4 |
UP |
9.2 |
UP |
|
|
Parker,S |
4.4 |
5.6 |
UP |
3.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Edwards,B |
4.3 |
8.4 |
UP |
7.8 |
UP |
|
|
Jenkins,M |
4.3 |
5.5 |
UP |
5.4 |
UP |
|
|
Randle,A |
4.3 |
4.4 |
UP |
4.6 |
UP |
|
|
Clayton,M |
4.3 |
7.2 |
UP |
7.6 |
UP |
|
|
Jackson,D |
5.2 |
10.0 |
UP |
9.7 |
UP |
|
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A Look back at the 2006 Tight End Projections
- 70% Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Gates,A |
10.6 |
10.4 |
DOWN |
9.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Shockey,J |
8.7 |
7.6 |
DOWN |
7.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Heap,T |
8.0 |
8.4 |
UP |
7.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Cooley,C |
7.4 |
6.4 |
DOWN |
6.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Crumpler,A |
7.4 |
7.8 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Witten,J |
7.0 |
7.5 |
UP |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gonzalez,T |
6.9 |
8.8 |
UP |
8.0 |
UP |
|
|
McMichael,R |
5.5 |
6.5 |
UP |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,L |
5.4 |
5.6 |
UP |
5.7 |
UP |
|
|
Stevens,J |
7.7 |
3.5 |
DOWN |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Miller,H |
5.1 |
5.7 |
UP |
4.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Troupe,B |
7.7 |
4.6 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
6.1 |
5.1 |
DOWN |
5.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Pollard,M |
4.6 |
3.0 |
DOWN |
0.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Watson,B |
5.2 |
5.4 |
UP |
6.3 |
UP |
|
|
Wiggins,J |
3.9 |
4.0 |
UP |
2.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Heiden,S |
3.6 |
2.9 |
DOWN |
2.3 |
DOWN |
|
|
Smith,A |
3.5 |
4.6 |
UP |
3.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Anderson,C |
3.0 |
4.0 |
UP |
2.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Putzier,J |
3.4 |
2.9 |
DOWN |
0.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,D |
3.5 |
3.4 |
DOWN |
3.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Lee,D |
2.7 |
1.7 |
DOWN |
1.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Martin,D |
3.6 |
2.3 |
DOWN |
2.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Scaife,B |
2.8 |
2.7 |
DOWN |
4.0 |
UP |
|
|
Fletcher,B |
2.5 |
1.7 |
DOWN |
2.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Clark,D |
2.2 |
3.4 |
UP |
6.2 |
UP |
|
|
Baker,C |
2.1 |
2.8 |
UP |
3.4 |
UP |
|
|
Bergen,A |
2.4 |
2.5 |
UP |
1.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Mangum,K |
2.3 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
1.6 |
DOWN |
|
|
Gaines,M |
1.8 |
1.5 |
DOWN |
0.9 |
DOWN |
|
|
Franks,B |
1.7 |
4.1 |
UP |
1.5 |
DOWN |
|
|
Schobel,M |
1.6 |
2.3 |
UP |
2.1 |
UP |
|
|
Wrighster,G |
1.5 |
1.4 |
DOWN |
3.3 |
UP |
|
|
Alexander,S |
1.4 |
2.0 |
UP |
1.8 |
UP |
|
|
Conwell,E |
3.2 |
3.4 |
UP |
1.7 |
DOWN |
|
|
Brady,K |
1.4 |
1.9 |
UP |
0.2 |
DOWN |
|
|
Wilcox,D |
1.5 |
2.5 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Royal,R |
1.2 |
1.7 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
Manumaleuna,B |
1.2 |
2.0 |
UP |
1.7 |
UP |
|
|
Utecht,B |
1.2 |
1.2 |
UP |
2.5 |
UP |
|
|
|
A Look back
at the 2006 Place Kickers Projections -
80 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Rackers,N. |
10.3 |
9.4 |
DOWN |
8.8 |
DOWN |
|
|
Feely,J. |
10.1 |
9.0 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Graham,S. |
8.6 |
9.2 |
UP |
8.7 |
UP |
|
|
Wilkins,J. |
8.4 |
8.5 |
UP |
82.5 |
UP |
|
|
Tynes,L. |
8.3 |
8.8 |
UP |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Kasay,J. |
8.3 |
8.3 |
DOWN |
8.0 |
DOWN |
|
|
Vanderjagt,M. |
11.6 |
7.5 |
DOWN |
8.1 |
DOWN |
|
|
Elam,J. |
7.9 |
8.9 |
UP |
13.9 |
UP |
|
|
Lindell,R. |
7.9 |
8.3 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Stover,M. |
7.8 |
8.8 |
UP |
9.0 |
UP |
|
|
Brown,J. |
7.8 |
8.3 |
UP |
8.5 |
UP |
|
|
Reed,J. |
7.7 |
8.1 |
UP |
7.9 |
UP |
|
|
Kaeding,N. |
7.5 |
7.3 |
DOWN |
10.2 |
UP |
|
|
Scobee,J. |
7.3 |
8.0 |
UP |
14.0 |
UP |
|
|
Mare,O. |
7.3 |
7.8 |
UP |
| | |
