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The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The
focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting
whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than
the previous year. It
assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards
rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for
rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per
Game as it doesn't penalize us for injuries which would be out of a
prognosticator's control.
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A Look back
at the 2006 Quarterback Projections -
80 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Palmer,C |
19.1 |
18.0 |
DOWN |
18.2 |
DOWN |
 |
|
Brady,T |
18.5 |
17.0 |
DOWN |
16.2 |
DOWN |
|
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Manning,P |
17.8 |
19.6 |
UP |
22.1 |
UP |
|
|
Hasselbeck,M |
22.4 |
17.0 |
DOWN |
14.6 |
DOWN |
|
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Manning,E |
16.5 |
15.7 |
DOWN |
14.0 |
DOWN |
|
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Bledsoe,D |
42.8 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
14.2 |
DOWN |
|
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Green,T |
32.1 |
16.4 |
DOWN |
10.4 |
DOWN |
|
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Brees,D |
16.0 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
19.1 |
UP |
 |
|
Collins,K |
63.5 |
8.8 |
DOWN |
4.9 |
DOWN |
|
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Plummer,J |
15.8 |
16.2 |
UP |
8.4 |
DOWN |
|
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Vick,M |
15.6 |
15.2 |
DOWN |
18.4 |
UP |
|
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Delhomme,J |
18.8 |
14.5 |
DOWN |
14.4 |
DOWN |
|
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Brunell,M |
23.6 |
13.0 |
DOWN |
11.7 |
DOWN |
|
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Favre,B |
13.9 |
14.9 |
UP |
14.9 |
UP |
|
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McNair,S |
13.8 |
15.6 |
UP |
13.2 |
DOWN |
|
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Brooks,A |
25.3 |
14.1 |
DOWN |
8.0 |
DOWN |
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Carr,D |
12.2 |
14.5 |
UP |
11.9 |
DOWN |
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Roethlisberger,B |
12.9 |
14.1 |
UP |
14.9 |
UP |
|
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McNabb,D |
18.3 |
16.7 |
DOWN |
23.2 |
UP |
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Leftwich,B |
29.2 |
14.0 |
DOWN |
15.3 |
DOWN |
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Warner,K |
23.4 |
16.2 |
DOWN |
11.9 |
DOWN |
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Bulger,M |
9.7 |
16.7 |
UP |
18.7 |
UP |
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Johnson,B |
9.3 |
12.1 |
UP |
10.5 |
UP |
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Harrington,J |
12.1 |
3.3 |
DOWN |
12.0 |
DOWN |
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Simms,C |
43.7 |
12.1 |
DOWN |
8.7 |
DOWN |
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Boller,K |
24.6 |
3.8 |
DOWN |
8.7 |
DOWN |
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McCown,J |
40.0 |
4.5 |
DOWN |
0.5 |
DOWN |
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Bollinger,B |
53.5 |
2.0 |
DOWN |
2.7 |
DOWN |
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Garrard,D |
9.5 |
6.0 |
DOWN |
8.4 |
DOWN |
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Culpepper,D |
24.8 |
16.8 |
DOWN |
14.1 |
DOWN |
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Losman,J |
6.1 |
11.1 |
UP |
13.8 |
UP |
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Griese,B |
12.0 |
9.8 |
DOWN |
1.8 |
DOWN |
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Martin,J |
4.4 |
2.2 |
DOWN |
0.8 |
DOWN |
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Frye,C |
4.6 |
11.9 |
UP |
10.5 |
UP |
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A Look back
at the 2006 RunningBack Projections -
84 % Success
| |
2005 |
2006 |
2006 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
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Alexander,S |
36.4 |
20.5 |
DOWN |
13.6 |
DOWN |
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Johnson,L |
20.9 |
22.5 |
UP |
20.9 |
DOWN |
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Barber,T |
19.1 |
17.1 |
DOWN |
15.2 |
DOWN |
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Tomlinson,L |
18.9 |
19.7 |
UP |
26.7 |
UP |
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James,E |
16.8 |
14.5 |
DOWN |
10.9 |
DOWN |
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Portis,C |
29.9 |
12.2 |
DOWN |
13.9 |
DOWN |
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Johnson,R |
14.2 |
14.3 |
UP |
13.5 |
DOWN |
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Jordan,L |
22.5 |
12.6 |
DOWN |
6.3 |
DOWN |
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Jones,T |
12.6 |
9.3 |
DOWN |
10.8 |
DOWN |
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Anderson,M |
13.4 |
5.1 |
DOWN |
2.0 |
DOWN |
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Jackson,S |
12.3 |
14.6 |
UP |
20.6 |
UP |
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Dunn,W |
11.8 |
12.2 |
UP |
10.1 |
DOWN |
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