How we did with our 2022 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on 70-75% of the players.

Last season, our draft advisor ranked fantasyplayers: Joe Burrow, Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, Kenneth Walker, Amari Cooper, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Pat Freiermuth, Tyler Higbee, David Njoku...two or more rounds ahead of their ADP, helping our subscribers win championships.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2022: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 20 out of the top 30 = 67% correct

Running Backs:  28 out of top 40 = 70% correct

Wide Receivers: 35 out of top 60 = 70% correct

Tight Ends: 22 out of top 30 = 73% correct

Place Kickers: 17 out of the top 25 = 68% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.

 22/21/20/19/18/17/16/15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07/06/05/

A look back: 2022 Quarterback Projections - 67 % Success

	2021	2022		2022		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Patrick Mahomes	24.4	22.7	DOWN	27.3	UP
Josh Allen	26.3	23.7	DOWN	26.3	UP
Jalen Hurts	22.8	20.6	DOWN	27.7	UP
Joe Burrow	22.6	22.7	UP	23.7	UP
Geno Smith	15.8	12.6	DOWN	20.9	UP
Trevor Lawrence	14.2	16.8	UP	20.5	UP
Kirk Cousins	21.7	19.5	DOWN	19.8	DOWN
Jared Goff	16.5	14.9	DOWN	19.6	UP
Justin Herbert	24.8	23.5	DOWN	19.6	DOWN
Daniel Jones	17.4	16.5	DOWN	20.2	UP
Tom Brady	25.5	20.4	DOWN	19.0	DOWN
Justin Fields	13.0	16.1	UP	21.4	UP
Aaron Rodgers	23.3	20.7	DOWN	16.5	DOWN
Tua Tagovailoa	15.9	17.3	UP	20.6	UP
Russell Wilson	19.6	20.6	UP	17.7	DOWN
Lamar Jackson	22.6	21.5	DOWN	21.7	DOWN
Derek Carr	18.5	19.1	UP	17.0	DOWN
Dak Prescott	23.2	20.5	DOWN	19.1	DOWN
Marcus Mariota	1.7	13.6	UP	17.0	UP
Kyler Murray	24.1	21.7	DOWN	20.0	DOWN
Davis Mills	14.0	16.6	UP	14.4	UP
Andy Dalton	12.1	3.9	DOWN	14.5	UP
Jacoby Brissett	8.1	9.8	UP	12.7	UP
Mac Jones	15.6	16.6	UP	14.3	DOWN
Matt Ryan	15.8	16.3	UP	16.3	UP
Jimmy Garoppolo	18.0	9.2	DOWN	17.6	DOWN
Ryan Tannehill	18.4	16.1	DOWN	15.7	DOWN
Baker Mayfield	15.2	13.2	DOWN	12.3	DOWN
Taylor Heinicke	16.1	4.3	DOWN	16.1	DOWN
Matthew Stafford	22.3	20.3	DOWN	15.0	DOWN
Carson Wentz	17.6	15.8	DOWN	16.0	DOWN

A look back: 2022 Running Back Projections - 70 % Success

	2021	2022		2022		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Austin Ekeler	21.6	16.6	DOWN	22.3	UP
Christian McCaffrey	18.3	17.0	DOWN	21.0	UP
Josh Jacobs	15.3	11.1	DOWN	19.4	UP
Derrick Henry	23.4	16.4	DOWN	19.3	DOWN
Saquon Barkley	11.6	15.1	UP	17.6	UP
Nick Chubb	15.5	13.5	DOWN	16.6	UP
Aaron Jones	15.4	14.2	DOWN	14.9	DOWN
Rhamondre Stevenson	9.8	8.7	DOWN	14.8	UP
Tony Pollard	10.5	10.6	UP	15.6	UP
Dalvin Cook	16.0	16.2	UP	14.5	DOWN
Joe Mixon	18.1	14.5	DOWN	16.0	DOWN
Najee Harris	17.7	16.4	DOWN	13.4	DOWN
Jamaal Williams	9.2	0.0	DOWN	13.4	UP
Leonard Fournette	18.3	13.1	DOWN	14.1	DOWN
Miles Sanders	9.8	10.6	UP	13.0	UP
Alvin Kamara	18.1	13.7	DOWN	14.6	DOWN
James Conner	17.2	13.1	DOWN	15.6	DOWN
Jerick McKinnon	2.8	0.0	DOWN	11.5	UP
D'Andre Swift	16.2	14.1	DOWN	13.5	DOWN
Ezekiel Elliott	14.6	11.9	DOWN	12.4	DOWN
Devin Singletary	11.6	9.9	DOWN	10.8	DOWN
David Montgomery	15.3	11.9	DOWN	11.4	DOWN
Raheem Mostert	2.0	0.0	DOWN	10.6	UP
AJ Dillon	11.1	10.4	DOWN	9.9	DOWN
Antonio Gibson	14.7	9.6	DOWN	11.1	DOWN
Jeff Wilson Jr.	5.8	0.0	DOWN	10.2	UP
Jonathan Taylor	22.2	23.3	UP	13.9	DOWN
Cordarrelle Patterson	14.7	9.2	DOWN	11.6	DOWN
Cam Akers	4.0	11.7	UP	9.7	UP
Samaje Perine	5.2	0.0	DOWN	8.9	UP
D'Onta Foreman	10.7	0.0	DOWN	7.6	DOWN
Michael Carter	11.1	8.8	DOWN	8.0	DOWN
Kareem Hunt	13.5	9.8	DOWN	7.5	DOWN
Khalil Herbert	4.6	6.9	UP	9.1	UP
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	12.0	11.0	DOWN	9.8	DOWN
Melvin Gordon III	12.6	9.1	DOWN	9.1	DOWN
Damien Harris	14.3	10.1	DOWN	7.0	DOWN
Chuba Hubbard	8.2	0.0	DOWN	6.0	DOWN
James Robinson	12.7	7.3	DOWN	8.1	DOWN

A look back: 2022 Wide Receiver Projections - 70 % Success

	2021	2022		2022		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Justin Jefferson	19.5	19.4	DOWN	21.6	UP
Tyreek Hill	17.6	14.4	DOWN	20.4	UP
Davante Adams	21.5	17.0	DOWN	19.7	DOWN
Stefon Diggs	16.8	15.6	DOWN	18.9	UP
A.J. Brown	13.9	13.1	DOWN	17.9	UP
CeeDee Lamb	14.6	15.6	UP	17.7	UP
Amon-Ra St. Brown	13.1	13.3	UP	16.7	UP
Jaylen Waddle	15.5	14.0	DOWN	15.4	DOWN
DeVonta Smith	10.9	11.7	UP	15.1	UP
Ja'Marr Chase	18.1	17.4	DOWN	20.5	UP
Amari Cooper	13.5	13.2	DOWN	14.5	UP
Christian Kirk	12.1	11.5	DOWN	14.3	UP
Tyler Lockett	14.9	11.3	DOWN	15.1	UP
DK Metcalf	14.4	12.5	DOWN	13.6	DOWN
Brandon Aiyuk	10.0	10.8	UP	13.5	UP
Terry McLaurin	12.6	13.2	UP	13.5	UP
Mike Evans	16.4	14.4	DOWN	15.0	DOWN
Chris Godwin	17.6	13.9	DOWN	15.0	DOWN
Tee Higgins	15.6	13.4	DOWN	13.0	DOWN
Michael Pittman Jr.	13.9	14.7	UP	13.7	DOWN
Jerry Jeudy	8.5	13.0	UP	13.6	UP
Cooper Kupp	25.8	20.3	DOWN	22.6	DOWN
DJ Moore	14.0	13.3	DOWN	11.7	DOWN
Zay Jones	6.4	6.3	DOWN	12.3	UP
JuJu Smith-Schuster	7.0	12.6	UP	11.8	UP
Jakobi Meyers	10.8	9.3	DOWN	13.0	UP
Curtis Samuel	2.0	5.9	UP	10.5	UP
Adam Thielen	15.4	12.2	DOWN	10.5	DOWN
Diontae Johnson	17.3	13.5	DOWN	10.4	DOWN
Mike Williams	15.3	13.0	DOWN	13.6	DOWN
Allen Lazard	9.5	11.3	UP	11.7	UP
Tyler Boyd	11.4	10.2	DOWN	10.2	DOWN
Gabe Davis	7.9	13.1	UP	11.6	UP
Deebo Samuel	21.1	15.8	DOWN	13.3	DOWN
Joshua Palmer	5.5	8.6	UP	10.5	UP
Keenan Allen	16.0	15.0	DOWN	16.6	UP
Donovan Peoples-Jones	8.0	7.9	DOWN	9.6	UP
Courtland Sutton	8.7	12.1	UP	10.6	UP
Marquise Brown	14.3	13.1	DOWN	13.0	DOWN
K.J. Osborn	9.4	8.5	DOWN	9.2	DOWN
DeAndre Hopkins	14.7	10.8	DOWN	17.1	UP
Parris Campbell	5.3	5.7	UP	8.8	UP
Brandin Cooks	14.5	13.5	DOWN	11.2	DOWN
Russell Gage	11.9	9.2	DOWN	9.5	DOWN
Isaiah McKenzie	3.7	8.5	UP	7.5	UP
Robert Woods	15.0	10.2	DOWN	6.9	DOWN
Marvin Jones Jr.	10.6	9.2	DOWN	7.3	DOWN
Noah Brown	2.6	5.0	UP	7.3	UP
Kalif Raymond	8.3	4.7	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
Olamide Zaccheaus	5.3	4.2	DOWN	6.6	UP

A look back: 2022 Tight End Projections - 73 % Success

	2021	2022		2022		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Travis Kelce	16.6	14.5	DOWN	18.6	UP
T.J. Hockenson	11.9	11.0	DOWN	12.6	UP
George Kittle	14.3	11.7	DOWN	13.5	DOWN
Mark Andrews	17.5	14.7	DOWN	12.6	DOWN
Evan Engram	7.0	8.1	UP	10.3	UP
Tyler Higbee	9.8	9.3	DOWN	8.9	DOWN
Pat Freiermuth	9.5	9.7	UP	9.3	DOWN
Taysom Hill	10.7	3.9	DOWN	9.3	DOWN
Cole Kmet	7.1	9.0	UP	8.7	UP
Dalton Schultz	12.2	11.2	DOWN	9.6	DOWN
David Njoku	6.8	9.5	UP	10.3	UP
Dallas Goedert	10.9	10.8	DOWN	11.9	UP
Gerald Everett	8.1	8.2	UP	8.6	UP
Dawson Knox	10.8	10.2	DOWN	9.0	DOWN
Juwan Johnson	3.8	2.5	DOWN	8.4	UP
Tyler Conklin	8.1	6.1	DOWN	7.7	DOWN
Noah Fant	9.9	9.0	DOWN	7.2	DOWN
Jordan Akins	3.5	3.0	DOWN	7.8	UP
Robert Tonyan	6.3	7.4	UP	6.6	UP
Zach Ertz	10.6	9.7	DOWN	11.2	UP
Hayden Hurst	5.1	8.4	UP	7.9	UP
Hunter Henry	9.6	9.1	DOWN	6.1	DOWN
Mike Gesicki	9.6	9.4	DOWN	5.8	DOWN
Austin Hooper	5.7	7.5	UP	5.7	UP
Will Dissly	3.3	3.5	UP	5.8	UP
Darren Waller	12.2	12.0	DOWN	9.4	DOWN
Logan Thomas	9.3	9.0	DOWN	5.5	DOWN
Kyle Pitts	10.4	12.3	UP	7.6	DOWN
Noah Gray	1.1	2.2	UP	4.1	UP
Colby Parkinson	0.6	1.1	UP	4.1	UP

A look back: 2022 Kicker Projections - 68 % Success

	2021	2022		2022		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Justin Tucker	9.5	9.7	UP	9.7	UP
Brett Maher	8.0	7.3	DOWN	9.6	UP
Daniel Carlson	10.4	10.4	DOWN	9.6	DOWN
Jason Myers	6.3	6.3	DOWN	9.4	UP
Younghoe Koo	7.4	9.0	UP	9.1	UP
Nick Folk	10.4	9.5	DOWN	8.8	DOWN
Eddy Pineiro	7.8	6.1	DOWN	8.7	UP
Tyler Bass	8.4	8.9	UP	8.7	UP
Graham Gano	7.2	8.3	UP	8.6	UP
Robbie Gould	8.1	7.3	DOWN	8.4	UP
Greg Zuerlein	8.6	8.2	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Greg Joseph	9.4	10.1	UP	8.2	DOWN
Jason Sanders	6.8	8.2	UP	8.1	UP
Chase McLaughlin	5.5	3.1	DOWN	8.6	UP
Brandon McManus	7.6	8.8	UP	8.1	UP
Matt Gay	9.4	10.2	UP	7.9	DOWN
Ryan Succop	8.3	8.1	DOWN	7.9	DOWN
Ka'imi Fairbairn	5.1	7.3	UP	7.8	UP
Jake Elliott	8.8	8.2	DOWN	7.3	DOWN
Mason Crosby	8.0	7.5	DOWN	7.2	DOWN
Joey Slye	8.7	8.3	DOWN	7.0	DOWN
Harrison Butker	8.4	10.0	UP	6.2	DOWN
Matt Prater	9.2	8.5	DOWN	5.9	DOWN
Chris Boswell	9.6	8.2	DOWN	7.5	DOWN
Randy Bullock	8.3	7.5	DOWN	5.1	DOWN