How we did with our 2025 Fantasy Football Projections

On Average, since our inception in 1999, we have correctly projected the fantasy direction on 70-75% of the players.

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league (1 point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize for factors such as injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

2025: Preseason Projections vs Year End Results*

Quarterbacks: 24 out of the top 32 = 75% correct

Running Backs:  31 out of top 40 = 78% correct

Wide Receivers: 33 out of top 50 = 66% correct

Tight Ends: 21 out of top 30 = 70% correct

Place Kickers: 12 out of the top 18 = 67% correct

*Based on predicting whether or not a player would have a better or worse fantasy season. For a detailed listing of each player and position.

 25/24/23/22/21/20/19/18/17/16/15/14/13/12/11/10/09/08/07

A look back: 2025 Quarterback Projections - 75 % Success

	2024	2025		2025		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Lamar Jackson	28.2	22.6	DOWN	18.8	DOWN	Right
Joe Burrow	25.4	20.0	DOWN	19.1	DOWN	Right
Josh Allen	24.6	22.6	DOWN	23.8	DOWN	Right
Baker Mayfield	24.3	17.8	DOWN	18.3	DOWN	Right
Jalen Hurts	23.6	20.7	DOWN	21.2	DOWN	Right
Jayden Daniels	22.7	21.8	DOWN	18.4	DOWN	Right
Jared Goff	21.6	16.9	DOWN	20.7	DOWN	Right
Sam Darnold	21.1	14.9	DOWN	16.7	DOWN	Right
Bo Nix	20.8	17.2	DOWN	20.0	DOWN	Right
Brock Purdy	20.8	16.8	DOWN	22.3	UP	Wrong
Kyler Murray	20.1	16.6	DOWN	17.9	DOWN	Right
Patrick Mahomes	20.1	18.0	DOWN	22.7	UP	Wrong
Tua Tagovailoa	19.1	14.7	DOWN	13.4	DOWN	Right
Justin Herbert	18.9	17.1	DOWN	20.4	UP	Wrong
Geno Smith	18.2	15.4	DOWN	13.6	DOWN	Right
Jordan Love	17.5	15.8	DOWN	17.9	UP	Wrong
Aaron Rodgers	17.4	14.0	DOWN	16.3	DOWN	Right
Caleb Williams	17.3	17.4	UP	21.0	UP	Right
Dak Prescott	17.3	16.9	DOWN	21.0	UP	Wrong
Marcus Mariota	16.3	2.2	DOWN	13.3	DOWN	Right
Trevor Lawrence	16.2	16.3	UP	22.5	UP	Right
Matthew Stafford	16.0	14.4	DOWN	23.7	UP	Wrong
Drake Maye	16.0	16.2	UP	23.4	UP	Right
Daniel Jones	16.0	9.8	DOWN	20.1	UP	Wrong
Bryce Young	15.9	15.8	DOWN	15.9	DOWN	Right
C.J. Stroud	15.6	16.6	UP	17.1	UP	Right
Joe Flacco	15.6	8.8	DOWN	13.3	DOWN	Right
Kirk Cousins	15.4	6.1	DOWN	11.2	DOWN	Right
Justin Fields	13.2	17.0	UP	16.8	UP	Right
Spencer Rattler	12.3	13.1	UP	13.2	UP	Right
Mac Jones	11.5	1.5	DOWN	14.0	UP	Wrong
Michael Penix Jr.	10.4	14.7	UP	15.8	UP	Right
Jacoby Brissett	6.8	1.5	DOWN	19.1	UP	Wrong

A look back: 2025 Running Back Projections - 78 % Success

	2024	2025		2025		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Saquon Barkley	21.9	19.2	DOWN	14.5	DOWN	Right
Jahmyr Gibbs	21.5	19.7	DOWN	21.7	UP	Wrong
Bijan Robinson	20.0	20.2	UP	22.0	UP	Right
Derrick Henry	19.9	17.8	DOWN	16.8	DOWN	Right
Alvin Kamara	18.9	14.4	DOWN	9.5	DOWN	Right
De'Von Achane	17.6	17.8	UP	20.2	UP	Right
Jonathan Taylor	17.6	14.6	DOWN	21.3	UP	Wrong
Josh Jacobs	17.6	16.7	DOWN	16.1	DOWN	Right
Kyren Williams	17.4	14.6	DOWN	15.7	DOWN	Right
James Cook	16.7	14.5	DOWN	18.1	UP	Wrong
Kenneth Walker III	16.5	14.3	DOWN	11.3	DOWN	Right
Chuba Hubbard	16.4	12.5	DOWN	8.5	DOWN	Right
Chase Brown	15.9	16.0	UP	16.5	UP	Right
James Conner	15.8	13.9	DOWN	11.1	DOWN	Right
David Montgomery	15.7	11.6	DOWN	9.8	DOWN	Right
Breece Hall	15.1	13.5	DOWN	13.2	DOWN	Right
J.K. Dobbins	14.8	10.4	DOWN	11.6	DOWN	Right
Aaron Jones Sr.	14.6	9.8	DOWN	10.1	DOWN	Right
Bucky Irving	14.5	17.6	UP	14.1	DOWN	Wrong
Rachaad White	12.9	6.2	DOWN	8.4	DOWN	Right
Tony Pollard	12.7	12.4	DOWN	11.3	DOWN	Right
Rico Dowdle	12.6	5.7	DOWN	12.8	UP	Wrong
D'Andre Swift	12.5	11.9	DOWN	14.5	UP	Wrong
Christian McCaffrey	12.5	18.3	UP	24.5	UP	Right
Najee Harris	12.1	8.1	DOWN	3.9	DOWN	Right
Michael Carter	12.0	0.0	DOWN	7.6	DOWN	Right
Kareem Hunt	11.9	4.6	DOWN	8.7	DOWN	Right
Rhamondre Stevenson	11.9	7.9	DOWN	12.9	UP	Wrong
Brian Robinson Jr.	11.7	5.6	DOWN	3.7	DOWN	Right
Zach Charbonnet	11.0	8.2	DOWN	11.2	UP	Wrong
Austin Ekeler	11.0	8.8	DOWN	6.6	DOWN	Right
Tyrone Tracy Jr.	10.9	10.8	DOWN	10.9	DOWN	Right
Jordan Mason	9.8	9.0	DOWN	8.2	DOWN	Right
Jerome Ford	9.6	8.9	DOWN	3.4	DOWN	Right
Javonte Williams	9.5	8.3	DOWN	15.4	UP	Wrong
Tyjae Spears	9.5	7.6	DOWN	8.6	DOWN	Right
Travis Etienne Jr.	8.8	8.9	UP	14.9	UP	Right
Justice Hill	8.5	5.8	DOWN	6.5	DOWN	Right
Jaylen Warren	8.4	9.9	UP	13.6	UP	Right
Tank Bigsby	8.2	8.1	DOWN	3.2	DOWN	Right

A look back: 2025 Wide Receiver Projections - 66 % Success

	2024	2025		2025		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Ja'Marr Chase	23.7	20.5	DOWN	19.7	DOWN	Right
Puka Nacua	18.8	18.4	DOWN	23.6	UP	Wrong
Tee Higgins	18.7	14.9	DOWN	14.0	DOWN	Right
Justin Jefferson	18.6	19.3	UP	11.9	DOWN	Wrong
Amon-Ra St. Brown	18.5	18.4	DOWN	19.1	UP	Wrong
Nico Collins	17.6	15.4	DOWN	15.1	DOWN	Right
CeeDee Lamb	17.5	18.7	UP	14.4	DOWN	Wrong
Mike Evans	17.1	14.8	DOWN	10.6	DOWN	Right
Davante Adams	17.1	13.8	DOWN	15.9	DOWN	Right
A.J. Brown	16.7	15.5	DOWN	14.7	DOWN	Right
Drake London	16.5	17.3	UP	16.8	UP	Right
Brian Thomas Jr.	16.5	17.7	UP	9.9	DOWN	Wrong
Terry McLaurin	15.9	14.1	DOWN	11.4	DOWN	Right
DeVonta Smith	15.3	12.7	DOWN	11.9	DOWN	Right
Stefon Diggs	15.1	11.9	DOWN	12.4	DOWN	Right
Garrett Wilson	14.9	14.9	DOWN	14.2	DOWN	Right
Ladd McConkey	14.9	16.7	UP	11.3	DOWN	Wrong
Jaxon Smith-Njigba	14.8	15.4	UP	21.3	UP	Right
Cooper Kupp	14.6	9.8	DOWN	7.3	DOWN	Right
Jakobi Meyers	14.4	12.7	DOWN	11.1	DOWN	Right
Jordan Addison	14.2	12.0	DOWN	9.7	DOWN	Right
Jameson Williams	14.1	13.2	DOWN	12.9	DOWN	Right
Jauan Jennings	14.1	10.8	DOWN	11.6	DOWN	Right
DJ Moore	14.0	14.9	UP	10.1	DOWN	Wrong
Courtland Sutton	13.9	13.9	DOWN	12.8	DOWN	Right
Jerry Jeudy	13.9	12.9	DOWN	7.2	DOWN	Right
Josh Downs	13.1	11.7	DOWN	8.7	DOWN	Right
DK Metcalf	13.0	13.8	UP	12.5	DOWN	Wrong
Keenan Allen	12.4	9.4	DOWN	10.7	DOWN	Right
Zay Flowers	12.4	13.2	UP	14.7	UP	Right
Khalil Shakir	12.2	10.6	DOWN	10.5	DOWN	Right
George Pickens	11.9	13.5	UP	17.1	UP	Right
Marvin Harrison Jr.	11.7	14.4	UP	10.5	DOWN	Wrong
Quentin Johnston	11.7	8.0	DOWN	12.4	UP	Wrong
Xavier Worthy	11.0	13.8	UP	7.9	DOWN	Wrong
Wan'Dale Robinson	10.8	8.1	DOWN	13.6	UP	Wrong
Michael Pittman Jr.	10.5	9.7	DOWN	11.8	UP	Wrong
Deebo Samuel Sr.	10.4	11.5	UP	11.8	UP	Right
Alec Pierce	10.1	7.5	DOWN	12.2	UP	Wrong
Romeo Doubs	10.0	7.5	DOWN	10.2	UP	Wrong
Jaylen Waddle	9.7	13.1	UP	12.1	UP	Right
DeMario Douglas	8.7	7.3	DOWN	5.6	DOWN	Right
Rome Odunze	8.6	11.9	UP	12.2	UP	Right
Keon Coleman	8.5	9.7	UP	7.9	DOWN	Wrong
Kayshon Boutte	8.0	4.9	DOWN	8.9	UP	Wrong
Michael Wilson	7.9	8.0	UP	13.0	UP	Right
Xavier Legette	7.8	7.5	DOWN	6.0	DOWN	Right
Olamide Zaccheaus	6.7	5.8	DOWN	5.3	DOWN	Right
Jalen Nailor	6.2	4.7	DOWN	5.8	DOWN	Right
Ricky Pearsall	8.5	12.1	UP	9.8	UP	Right

A look back: 2025 Tight End Projections - 70 % Success

	2024	2025		2025		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
George Kittle	15.8	13.4	DOWN	14.7	DOWN	Right
Trey McBride	15.6	15.5	DOWN	18.6	UP	Wrong
Brock Bowers	15.5	15.8	UP	14.5	DOWN	Wrong
David Njoku	13.2	10.7	DOWN	7.2	DOWN	Right
Jonnu Smith	13.2	9.1	DOWN	5.0	DOWN	Right
Travis Kelce	12.3	12.0	DOWN	11.2	DOWN	Right
Mark Andrews	11.1	9.9	DOWN	7.7	DOWN	Right
Sam LaPorta	10.9	12.3	UP	11.9	UP	Right
Dallas Goedert	10.4	8.6	DOWN	12.3	UP	Wrong
Cade Otton	10.2	8.3	DOWN	7.6	DOWN	Right
Zach Ertz	10.2	8.9	DOWN	9.6	DOWN	Right
Pat Freiermuth	10.1	9.1	DOWN	6.7	DOWN	Right
Evan Engram	10.0	10.8	UP	6.4	DOWN	Wrong
Tucker Kraft	9.6	9.5	DOWN	14.7	UP	Wrong
Hunter Henry	9.1	9.0	DOWN	10.5	UP	Wrong
Tyler Higbee	9.0	5.9	DOWN	7.1	DOWN	Right
T.J. Hockenson	8.7	11.4	UP	7.5	DOWN	Wrong
Mike Gesicki	8.5	8.8	UP	5.4	DOWN	Wrong
Isaiah Likely	7.9	9.1	UP	4.6	DOWN	Wrong
Dalton Kincaid	7.8	9.1	UP	10.5	UP	Right
Jake Ferguson	7.7	9.2	UP	11.2	UP	Right
Kyle Pitts Sr.	7.7	8.2	UP	12.4	UP	Right
Noah Fant	7.4	5.3	DOWN	5.4	DOWN	Right
Juwan Johnson	7.2	7.9	UP	10.8	UP	Right
Dalton Schultz	6.9	7.6	UP	10.5	UP	Right
Cole Kmet	6.9	4.9	DOWN	4.8	DOWN	Right
Chig Okonkwo	6.7	7.2	UP	7.3	UP	Right
Austin Hooper	6.5	5.1	DOWN	3.7	DOWN	Right
Theo Johnson	5.7	8.6	UP	8.5	UP	Right
Brenton Strange	5.5	9.3	UP	9.8	UP	Right

A look back: 2025 Kicker Projections - 67 % Success

	2024	2025		2025		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Jason Myers	8.4	9.0	UP	11.9	UP	Right
Ka'imi Fairbairn	10.2	9.7	DOWN	11.4	UP	Wrong
Brandon Aubrey	11.3	12.2	UP	11.1	DOWN	Wrong
Cameron Dicker	10.7	10.5	DOWN	10.1	DOWN	Right
Cam Little	7.4	9.7	UP	9.7	UP	Right
Will Reichard	10.1	9.4	DOWN	9.4	DOWN	Right
Chase McLaughlin	9.8	10.4	UP	9.2	DOWN	Wrong
Jake Bates	9.6	9.4	DOWN	9.1	DOWN	Right
Harrison Butker	7.8	9.4	UP	9.0	UP	Right
Chris Boswell	11.2	10.1	DOWN	8.9	DOWN	Right
Eddy Pineiro	6.4	4.4	DOWN	9.0	UP	Wrong
Evan McPherson	7.9	9.3	UP	8.2	UP	Right
Joey Slye	7.1	8.4	UP	8.0	UP	Right
Wil Lutz	9.4	9.7	UP	7.9	DOWN	Wrong
Riley Patterson	5.0	0.0	DOWN	7.8	UP	Wrong
Cairo Santos	6.5	8.2	UP	7.8	UP	Right
Chad Ryland	9.7	8.9	DOWN	7.6	DOWN	Right
Blake Grupe	7.8	8.8	UP	8.1	UP	Right