Fantasy Football : Fantistics!

The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize us for injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

A Look back at the 2006 Quarterback Projections - 80 % Success
  2005 2006 2006 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Palmer,C 19.1 18.0 DOWN 18.2 DOWN
Brady,T 18.5 17.0 DOWN 16.2 DOWN
Manning,P 17.8 19.6 UP 22.1 UP
Hasselbeck,M 22.4 17.0 DOWN 14.6 DOWN
Manning,E 16.5 15.7 DOWN 14.0 DOWN
Bledsoe,D 42.8 16.2 DOWN 14.2 DOWN
Green,T 32.1 16.4 DOWN 10.4 DOWN
Brees,D 16.0 14.0 DOWN 19.1 UP
Collins,K 63.5 8.8 DOWN 4.9 DOWN
Plummer,J 15.8 16.2 UP 8.4 DOWN
Vick,M 15.6 15.2 DOWN 18.4 UP
Delhomme,J 18.8 14.5 DOWN 14.4 DOWN
Brunell,M 23.6 13.0 DOWN 11.7 DOWN
Favre,B 13.9 14.9 UP 14.9 UP
McNair,S 13.8 15.6 UP 13.2 DOWN
Brooks,A 25.3 14.1 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
Carr,D 12.2 14.5 UP 11.9 DOWN
Roethlisberger,B 12.9 14.1 UP 14.9 UP
McNabb,D 18.3 16.7 DOWN 23.2 UP
Leftwich,B 29.2 14.0 DOWN 15.3 DOWN
Warner,K 23.4 16.2 DOWN 11.9 DOWN
Bulger,M 9.7 16.7 UP 18.7 UP
Johnson,B 9.3 12.1 UP 10.5 UP
Harrington,J 12.1 3.3 DOWN 12.0 DOWN
Simms,C 43.7 12.1 DOWN 8.7 DOWN
Boller,K 24.6 3.8 DOWN 8.7 DOWN
McCown,J 40.0 4.5 DOWN 0.5 DOWN
Bollinger,B 53.5 2.0 DOWN 2.7 DOWN
Garrard,D 9.5 6.0 DOWN 8.4 DOWN
Culpepper,D 24.8 16.8 DOWN 14.1 DOWN
Losman,J 6.1 11.1 UP 13.8 UP
Griese,B 12.0 9.8 DOWN 1.8 DOWN
Martin,J 4.4 2.2 DOWN 0.8 DOWN
Frye,C 4.6 11.9 UP 10.5 UP

 

A Look back at the 2006 RunningBack Projections - 84 % Success
  2005 2006 2006 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Alexander,S 36.4 20.5 DOWN 13.6 DOWN
Johnson,L 20.9 22.5 UP 20.9 DOWN
Barber,T 19.1 17.1 DOWN 15.2 DOWN
Tomlinson,L 18.9 19.7 UP 26.7 UP
James,E 16.8 14.5 DOWN 10.9 DOWN
Portis,C 29.9 12.2 DOWN 13.9 DOWN
Johnson,R 14.2 14.3 UP 13.5 DOWN
Jordan,L 22.5 12.6 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Jones,T 12.6 9.3 DOWN 10.8 DOWN
Anderson,M 13.4 5.1 DOWN 2.0 DOWN
Jackson,S 12.3 14.6 UP 20.6 UP
Dunn,W 11.8 12.2 UP 10.1 DOWN
McGahee,W 12.4 12.0 DOWN 10.8 DOWN
Parker,W 10.8 12.6 UP 16.7 UP
Droughns,R 12.3 11.3 DOWN 8.3 DOWN
Dillon,C 10.6 11.9 UP 10.9 UP
Westbrook,B 11.0 12.1 UP 17.2 UP
Williams,C 11.6 13.9 UP 7.5 DOWN
Brown,C 32.0 8.2 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
Jones,J 9.4 10.3 UP 9.2 DOWN
Bell,T 11.6 9.1 DOWN 7.9 DOWN
Brown,R 11.1 13.4 UP 12.2 UP
Foster,D 10.2 11.2 UP 8.8 DOWN
Lewis,J 8.4 11.5 UP 11.2 UP
Davis,S 8.8 4.0 DOWN 2.2 DOWN
Moore,M 7.4 4.9 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Gado,S 12.0 5.4 DOWN 3.9 DOWN
Jones,K 8.9 11.6 UP 14.1 UP
Taylor,F 7.0 9.1 UP 11.7 UP
Barlow,K 8.3 8.3 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Barber,M 5.9 8.3 UP 11.3 UP
Gore,F 5.8 11.9 UP 17.0 UP
Duckett,T 8.4 7.1 DOWN 2.4 DOWN
Bennett,M 8.2 3.5 DOWN 2.5 DOWN
Pittman,M 5.4 4.2 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Taylor,C 5.6 11.3 UP 12.4 UP
Perry,C 12.2 4.9 DOWN 1.7 DOWN
Alstott,M 4.5 4.7 UP 2.7 DOWN
Pinner,A 5.9 3.3 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
Shipp,M 4.7 3.1 DOWN 2.3 DOWN
Bryson,S 10.8 5.0 DOWN 2.7 DOWN
Pass,P 21.7 2.7 DOWN 1.5 DOWN
Stecker,A 5.3 2.1 DOWN 1.7 DOWN
Fisher,T 8.0 3.2 DOWN 2.1 DOWN
McAllister,D 4.2 9.9 UP 12.4 UP
Arrington,J 3.9 3.1 DOWN 0.5 DOWN
Haynes,V 8.1 2.3 DOWN 2.5 DOWN
Peterson,A 3.5 3.9 UP 1.6 DOWN
Sellers,M 3.4 2.8 DOWN 1.4 DOWN
Betts,L 3.4 4.5 UP 11.9 UP

 

 

A Look back at the 2006 Wide Receiver Projections - 77 % Success
  2005 2006 2006 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Smith,S 16.9 12.0 DOWN 12.6 DOWN
Fitzgerald,L 15.8 12.6 DOWN 8.2 DOWN
Moss,S 14.4 11.3 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Johnson,C 12.6 13.1 UP 11.3 DOWN
Galloway,J 11.8 9.8 DOWN 9.3 DOWN
Harrison,M 11.7 12.4 UP 13.0 UP
Holt,T 11.7 12.5 UP 11.2 DOWN
Boldin,A 11.7 11.9 UP 9.2 DOWN
Chambers,C 11.7 11.4 DOWN 6.3 DOWN
Ward,H 11.8 10.5 DOWN 9.8 DOWN
Burress,P 10.9 9.7 DOWN 10.6 DOWN
Glenn,T 10.1 9.3 DOWN 8.9 DOWN
Driver,D 9.6 9.9 UP 11.2 UP
Houshmandzadeh,T 10.7 9.9 DOWN 11.6 UP
Moss,R 11.5 11.4 DOWN 5.6 DOWN
Smith,R 9.2 8.6 DOWN 4.3 DOWN
McCardell,K 10.4 7.8 DOWN 3.2 DOWN
Kennison,E 9.1 8.5 DOWN 7.4 DOWN
Stallworth,D 11.4 8.5 DOWN 8.5 DOWN
Wayne,R 8.5 9.8 UP 11.6 UP
Branch,D 9.3 4.0 DOWN 7.1 DOWN
Jurevicius,J 9.9 6.0 DOWN 5.2 DOWN
Bryant,A 8.9 9.3 UP 6.5 DOWN
Mason,D 7.8 10.0 UP 5.4 DOWN
Curtis,K 7.7 6.5 DOWN 4.5 DOWN
Porter,J 30.8 6.8 DOWN 0.5 DOWN
Johnson,K 7.5 6.9 DOWN 6.9 DOWN
Evans,L 7.5 9.3 UP 11.1 UP
Williams,R 7.3 10.2 UP 10.8 UP
Coles,L 7.2 8.5 UP 9.2 UP
Owens,T 7.1 12.1 UP 12.3 UP
Wilford,E 6.9 8.7 UP 4.0 DOWN
Toomer,A 13.8 8.8 DOWN 6.8 DOWN
Moulds,E 6.6 7.6 UP 3.9 DOWN
Lloyd,B 6.9 8.9 UP 2.4 DOWN
Muhammad,M 6.2 9.2 UP 7.3 UP
Bennett,D 6.1 7.9 UP 5.7 DOWN
Parker,E 6.4 5.3 DOWN 4.5 DOWN
Engram,B 13.7 5.8 DOWN 5.1 DOWN
Lelie,A 6.1 5.6 DOWN 3.3 DOWN
Booker,M 6.2 6.6 UP 8.0 UP
Givens,D 17.4 6.7 DOWN 2.1 DOWN
Taylor,T 5.3 5.8 UP 5.2 DOWN
McCareins,J 5.3 3.1 DOWN 2.5 DOWN
Johnson,A 5.1 10.8 UP 9.1 UP
Brown,R 5.1 8.7 UP 8.6 UP
Robinson,M 8.2 5.8 DOWN 6.2 DOWN
Chatman,A 27.3 3.5 DOWN 0.7 DOWN
Henry,C 6.0 5.6 DOWN 8.8 UP
Jones,M 5.6 6.9 UP 6.2 UP
Gabriel,D 4.9 7.3 UP 4.1 DOWN
Bradford,C 8.1 5.4 DOWN 1.8 DOWN
Bruce,I 4.4 7.1 UP 8.0 UP
Horn,J 7.1 9.4 UP 9.2 UP
Parker,S 4.4 5.6 UP 3.9 DOWN
Edwards,B 4.3 8.4 UP 7.8 UP
Jenkins,M 4.3 5.5 UP 5.4 UP
Randle,A 4.3 4.4 UP 4.6 UP
Clayton,M 4.3 7.2 UP 7.6 UP
Jackson,D 5.2 10.0 UP 9.7 UP

 

A Look back at the 2006 Tight End Projections - 70% Success

  2005 2006 2006 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Gates,A 10.6 10.4 DOWN 9.2 DOWN
Shockey,J 8.7 7.6 DOWN 7.0 DOWN
Heap,T 8.0 8.4 UP 7.0 DOWN
Cooley,C 7.4 6.4 DOWN 6.8 DOWN
Crumpler,A 7.4 7.8 UP 7.9 UP
Witten,J 7.0 7.5 UP 5.1 DOWN
Gonzalez,T 6.9 8.8 UP 8.0 UP
McMichael,R 5.5 6.5 UP 5.1 DOWN
Smith,L 5.4 5.6 UP 5.7 UP
Stevens,J 7.7 3.5 DOWN 4.3 DOWN
Miller,H 5.1 5.7 UP 4.3 DOWN
Troupe,B 7.7 4.6 DOWN 2.7 DOWN
Clark,D 6.1 5.1 DOWN 5.1 DOWN
Pollard,M 4.6 3.0 DOWN 0.7 DOWN
Watson,B 5.2 5.4 UP 6.3 UP
Wiggins,J 3.9 4.0 UP 2.8 DOWN
Heiden,S 3.6 2.9 DOWN 2.3 DOWN
Smith,A 3.5 4.6 UP 3.1 DOWN
Anderson,C 3.0 4.0 UP 2.5 DOWN
Putzier,J 3.4 2.9 DOWN 0.9 DOWN
Graham,D 3.5 3.4 DOWN 3.0 DOWN
Lee,D 2.7 1.7 DOWN 1.0 DOWN
Martin,D 3.6 2.3 DOWN 2.9 DOWN
Scaife,B 2.8 2.7 DOWN 4.0 UP
Fletcher,B 2.5 1.7 DOWN 2.0 DOWN
Clark,D 2.2 3.4 UP 6.2 UP
Baker,C 2.1 2.8 UP 3.4 UP
Bergen,A 2.4 2.5 UP 1.2 DOWN
Mangum,K 2.3 2.2 DOWN 1.6 DOWN
Gaines,M 1.8 1.5 DOWN 0.9 DOWN
Franks,B 1.7 4.1 UP 1.5 DOWN
Schobel,M 1.6 2.3 UP 2.1 UP
Wrighster,G 1.5 1.4 DOWN 3.3 UP
Alexander,S 1.4 2.0 UP 1.8 UP
Conwell,E 3.2 3.4 UP 1.7 DOWN
Brady,K 1.4 1.9 UP 0.2 DOWN
Wilcox,D 1.5 2.5 UP 2.5 UP
Royal,R 1.2 1.7 UP 2.5 UP
Manumaleuna,B 1.2 2.0 UP 1.7 UP
Utecht,B 1.2 1.2 UP 2.5 UP

 

 

A Look back at the 2006 Place Kickers Projections - 80 % Success
  2005 2006 2006 Projection
Player Actual Projection Expected Actual Result Direction
Rackers,N. 10.3 9.4 DOWN 8.8 DOWN
Feely,J. 10.1 9.0 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Graham,S. 8.6 9.2 UP 8.7 UP
Wilkins,J. 8.4 8.5 UP 82.5 UP
Tynes,L. 8.3 8.8 UP 8.1 DOWN
Kasay,J. 8.3 8.3 DOWN 8.0 DOWN
Vanderjagt,M. 11.6 7.5 DOWN 8.1 DOWN
Elam,J. 7.9 8.9 UP 13.9 UP
Lindell,R. 7.9 8.3 UP 7.9 UP
Stover,M. 7.8 8.8 UP 9.0 UP
Brown,J. 7.8 8.3 UP 8.5 UP
Reed,J. 7.7 8.1 UP 7.9 UP
Kaeding,N. 7.5 7.3 DOWN 10.2 UP
Scobee,J. 7.3 8.0 UP 14.0 UP
Mare,O. 7.3 7.8 UP 42.0 UP
Nedney,J. 6.9 7.0 UP 8.8 UP
Bironas,R. 6.8 7.0 UP 7.2 UP
Brown,K. 6.8 7.6 UP 6.8 DOWN
Bryant,M. 6.6 7.3 UP 5.5 DOWN
Carney,J. 6.6 7.4 UP 44.7 UP
Dawson,P. 6.6 7.8 UP 8.5 UP
Vinatieri,A. 6.5 8.1 UP 8.9 UP
Longwell,R. 6.3 8.2 UP 10.6 UP
Nugent,M. 6.1 7.9 UP 8.0 UP
Janikowski,S. 6.1 7.6 UP 5.7 DOWN
Hanson,J. 5.8 7.3 UP 10.2 UP
Gould,R. 5.3 36.8 UP 15.1 UP
Akers,D. 4.9 7.2 UP 9.0 UP
Hall,J. 13.6 6.2 DOWN 4.4 DOWN
Suisham,S. 1.9 1.1 DOWN 4.3 UP

 

Features Included in the 2007 Fantasy Football Package

  • Fantasy Pro: Draft Prep Software - Detailed projections on over 800 players, including defensive players, allowing you to produce customized ranking/fantasy values based on your league rules.
  • VAM Draft Strategy - Drafting order based on the scarcity of each position and the probability of predictability
  • Preseason Projection Notes - Not just the news, but relevant fantasy projection changes
  • Position Battles/ Sleepers - knowing who the winners will be
  • Inside the Numbers Series - Which position players face the most difficult or friendly schedule ahead
  • Historical Fantasy Databases - Which players are the most consistent year after year
  • Weekly Pickup Recommendations - which players are the ones to pickup
  • Injury News and analysis reports emails - Fantasy recommendations to the daily news
  • Opposition Match up Matrix Database- Weekly plays and trading reference tool
  • Weekly Player Rankings/Projections for your Team - Critical Start/Bench decisions based on our successful weekly forecasting
  • Trending Player Analysis
  • Red Zone and Targeted Passes Databases - Spot the trends
  • Sunday Morning Scoop - Last minute activation / deactivation alerts

 


 

Anthony A. Perri is the founder and the resident "Stats Nerd" at Fantistics.  Anthony has a graduate level Math education. His experience includes working as a  Quantitative Analyst for several Wall Street firms developing statistical models before venturing out into Fantasy Sports in the late 1990s. His decade long involvement in Fantasy Sports includes accolades from some of the top publications in the country as well as  continual guest appearances on Sports Radio. Anthony is the designer of the Fantistics Projections Model & the VAM drafting strategy models.  

 

 




 

 


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