Fantistics Fantasy Football Running Backs

Within the Numbers - RunningBacks

In our continuing series attempting to uncover what we feel are the most important statistical attributes among the various fantasy positions, we look at Runningbacks in this report.

Runningbacks are easily the most valuable position in fantasy football (based on the typical scoring league). There is an elite class of running backs that score an immense amount of fantasy points, and part of what makes this group more valuable is the lack of value among replacements.

Runningbacks offer more stability to the fantasy roster than the quarterbacks. From a forecasting standard, last season was a banner season, seeing 65% of the top 20 running backs produce within 30% of the prior year's fantasy numbers.

The main reason is the dependence factor, or should we say independence factor. Running backs, with the exception of kickers, are the least affected by outside influences.

However, running backs have the dubious distinction of being the most injury prone and given the amount of contact they must endure during the season, it makes sense. This is part of the reason we recommend taking as many Running backs as you can reasonably place on your reserve roster.

Contrary to popular belief, forecasting Running backs by yards per rush is not a very accurate predictor of future success. Our research indicates that the RBs that accumulate multiple 100 yard games have a high correlation to continuing success in succeeding seasons. Another important indicator is schedule strength based on the opponents Rushing Defense (this plays less a factor with the Elite running backs).

According to our research, Running backs are heavily affected by there schedule strength. Based on our Schedule Strength Fantasy Formula that considers yardage and TDs allowed, on average since 1960, there is a 75% probability in predicting the "direction" of player performances for the top 10 rushers and a 71% probability for the top 25. The "direction" is defined as the deviation from a players average weekly fantasy stats. In our Matchup Matrix last season we predicted the weekly directional fantasy points for 78% of the top 10 running backs, and 72% of the top 25. As an example last year RB LaDainian Tomlinson faced the Dolphins in week 12, and as predicted in our weekly directional Matchup Matrix, he was not able to produce his average weekly fantasy stats. Although the directional guidance may sound non intuitive, the relative severity of each match up is gauged on a scale of 2 to 10, with 10 being the most favorable match up.

Subscribers are privy to our individual schedule strength matrix which covers every player and is forecast for the entire player's season making trading and lineup decisions a breeze.

The grid below arguably lists the most relevant stats attributed to Running backs: Projected 100 rushing yard games (100+) and projected total TDs. Also included is Red Zone Touches from 2002 (touches from within the opponents 20 yard line) and Red Zone TD conversion rates (Touchdowns from the Red Zone Touches). Highlighted in Blue are conversion rates that are considered above average, highlighted in red are conversion rates that are not considered favorable. NFL Teams tend to heavily weigh these percentages when constructing plays within the red zone. Thus knowing that Clinton Portis' success ratio within the redzone was very favorable in 2002, would lead to the assumption that the team will frequently utilize his services within the red zone in 2003.

The next sections consider the Schedule Strength (based on a number of opponent factors including rushing yardage allowed & rushing TD's allowed) that each player faced during the last 2 years. PPG change (points per game) is the difference in fantasy points per game (+/-) attained during the 2002 season verses the 2001 season. The reasoning behind this calculation is to gauge how the player produced given a lighter or heavier schedule. Players who faced an easier schedule and produced less points per game during the season raises a red flag. The last 3 columns represent the level of difficulty based on each game's defensive unit that these RBs will face in 2003 (The figure listed is the number of games that we forecast either: a Difficult, Neutral, or Easy game). An accumulation of excessively "Difficult" games are highlighted in Red, while an accumulation of excessively "Easy" games are highlighted in Blue. Using this analysis we can presume the RBs that will have a good chance to match or exceed last season totals and which face an uphill battle. As an example, Jamal Lewis' schedule improves this season as he is only projected to face 4 difficult passing defenses this season. Last year, in this analysis, we stated: "Edgerrin James faces an extremely difficult season with only 3 "easy" and 7 "difficult" defensive opponents this season. Couple this with the fact that he's coming off a difficult injury...it's easy to sense that James has an uphill battle this season"...and we were correct....Final Words: gauging the schedule difficulty is vital to fantasy success.

The listings are not necessarily in draft order.

	2003 Projection			2002	2002			Schedule Difficulty
Player	Tm	100 yrd	TD's	Red Touch	Red TD	2001	2002	PPG^	2003	Hard	Neutral	Easy
Williams, Ricky	MIA	9	18	75	17.3%	A-	C-	6.6	B	5	6	5
Tomlinson, LaDainian	SDC	8	16	59	22.0%	A+	D	5.4	B+	4	9	3
Portis, Clinton	DEN	8	16	51	27.5%	N/A	D+	N/A	A+	3	7	6
McAllister, Deuce	NOS	9	18	57	24.6%	A-	B-	15.1	D+	7	8	1
Holmes, Priest	KCC	9	15	66	31.8%	C-	C-	9.3	A	3	9	4
Faulk, Marshall	STL	6	14	38	26.3%	A+	B-	-9.4	A-	4	7	5
Alexander, Shaun	SEA	5	17	59	23.7%	B-	B-	0.6	B+	4	8	4
Lewis, Jamal	BAL	6	8	44	13.6%	N/A	D-	N/A	B+	4	8	4
Barber, Tiki	NYG	4	9	67	14.9%	A-	C	4.5	C-	7	6	3
Henry, Travis	BUF	6	13	65	16.9%	A	F	7.3	C-	7	6	3
Green, Ahman	GBP	6	10	47	14.9%	B-	B	-1.0	B+	5	5	6
Garner, Charlie	OAK	3	10	44	13.6%	C-	D	6.0	A+	2	9	5
James, Edgerrin	IND	5	8	39	7.7%	A-	D	-6.4	B-	5	8	3
Martin, Curtis	NYJ	5	8	41	17.1%	A+	D	-3.5	D+	8	4	4
George, Eddie	TEN	3	13	73	19.2%	B	D+	4.6	B+	4	9	3
Taylor, Fred	JAC	5	8	37	13.5%	N/A	F	7.3	B	5	7	4
Dillon, Corey	CIN	4	7	50	12.0%	D-	C-	-1.8	A	3	8	5
Staley, Duce	PHI	3	8	47	12.8%	B-	B	1.5	D	8	5	3
Green, William	CLE	3	8	23	17.4%	N/A	C-	N/A	A	3	8	5
Stewart, James	DET	3	7	34	11.8%	C+	B-	2.7	A	3	9	4
Dunn, Warrick	ATL	1	9	48	14.6%	C-	B+	1.8	D+	7	7	2
Canidate, Trung	WAS	2	8	3	0.0%	A+	N/A	-6.6	C-	7	5	4
Smith, Antowain	NEP	2	8	52	13.5%	A	D-	-2.7	D+	7	7	2
Hearst, Garrison	SFO	3	9	46	19.6%	A-	B+	-0.2	A	3	8	5
Hambrick, Troy	DAL	1	6	7	14.3%	B-	B+	-1.8	D	9	2	5
Davis, Stephen	CAR	3	9	35	22.9%	C	B-	-0.1	C-	7	5	4
Bettis, Jerome	PIT	3	11	29	24.1%	B+	C-	-1.8	B+	4	8	4
Barlow, Kevan	SFO	1	7	27	18.5%	A-	B+	0.9	A	3	8	5
Mack, Stacey	HOU	1	13	29	31.0%	D+	F	-3.2	B	5	7	4
Shipp, Marcel	ARI	2	6	36	19.4%	N/A	B-	N/A	A-	3	10	3
Thomas, Anthony	CHI	2	7	30	20.0%	A+	C	-2.4	A	4	5	7
Alstott, Mike	TBB	1	8	50	12.0%	C-	B+	-2.3	C	6	8	2
Williams, Moe	MIN	0	9	35	31.4%	C-	B+	4.4	A-	4	6	6
Smith, Onterrio	MIN	4	6	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	A+	3	7	6
Smith, Emmitt	ARI	2	5	16	25.0%	B-	B+	-0.9	A-	3	10	3
Zereoue, Amos	PIT	0	4	37	8.1%	B+	C-	2.9	B+	4	8	4

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