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8/28/2011

Hi Folks, As typical the third week of the preseason offers us a significant opportunity to look into the future. It's at this juncture when our player projections start shifting rapidly and it's also at this juncture when I solidify our sleeper recommendations for the up coming season.  For those that were members with us last season, the then unheralded names of Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, & Peyton Hillis came highly recommended from us...rounds ahead of the community consensus (ADP). Sometimes just 1 or 2 of these guys can carry a team....and we make it easy to spot these players in our player projections draft software. With today's player projections update (Web Update from within the software), many of you will see which players we believe will make a difference this season.  It's the most exciting time of the season before the actual season!  - Anthony

Yesterday's Fantasy QBs Box Score

R. Fitzpatrick 11 / 12 165 yards 2 TD 0 INT 158.3 rating
M. Stafford 12 / 14 200 yards 2 TD 0 INT 158.3 rating
B. Roethlisberger 11 / 16 214 yards 2 TD 0 INT 151 rating
C. Henne 10 / 13 175 yards 1 TD 0 INT 143.9 rating
K. Kolb 11 / 20 205 yards 1 TD 0 INT 107 rating
K. Orton 16 / 23 236 yards 1 TD 1 INT 99.2 rating
P. Rivers 18 / 28 198 yards 2 TD 1 INT 94 rating
T. Romo 15 / 20 141 yards 0 TD 0 INT
D. McNabb 12 / 18 156 yards 1 TD 1 INT
M. Schaub 16 / 24 180 yards 1 TD 1 INT 85.4 rating
T. Jackson 13 / 22 93 yards 1 TD 0 INT 84.1 rating
T. Tebow 6 / 11 93 yards 0 TD 0 INT 82.8 rating
C. Whitehurst 5 / 8 53 yards 0 TD 0 INT 81.8 rating
M. Hasselbeck 12 / 22 135 yards 0 TD 0 INT 73.1 rating
J. Freeman 14 / 29 183 yards 0 TD 0 INT 72.6 rating
T. Brady 12 / 22 145 yards 1 TD 1 INT 71.2 rating
J. Cutler 13 / 21 170 yards 0 TD 1 INT 67.6 rating
D. Garrard 11 / 21 106 yards 0 TD 0 INT 66.8 rating
M. Ryan 22 / 42 220 yards 1 TD 1 INT 65.6 rating
B. Gabbert 6 / 13 52 yards 1 TD 1 INT 50.8 rating
C. Kaepernick 6 / 16 52 yards 0 TD 1 INT 20.8 rating
A. Smith 2 / 6 17 yards 0 TD 1 INT 2.8 rating

Yesterday's Fantasy RBs Box Score

A. Peterson 14 / 81 rush 5.8 YPC 0 TD
M. Forte 17 / 74 rush 4.4 YPC 1 TD
R. Mathews 10 / 69 rush 6.9 YPC 0 TD
B. Wells 10 / 63 rush 6.3 YPC 0 TD
B. Tate 11 / 52 rush 4.7 YPC 0 TD
K. Moreno 10 / 47 rush 4.7 YPC 0 TD
K. Hunter (SF) 8 / 40 rush 5.0 YPC 0 TD
J. Rodgers (ATL) 7 / 38 rush 5.4 YPC 0 TD
A. Foster 8 / 38 rush 4.8 YPC 0 TD
J. Harper (TEN) 13 / 36 rush 2.8 YPC 1 TD
L. Washington 8 / 33 rush 4.1 YPC 0 TD 2/19 rec
F. Jackson 9 / 33 rush 3.7 YPC 0 TD
D. Murray (DAL) 7 / 31 rush 4.4 YPC 0 TD
D. Woodhead 4 / 28 rush 7.0 YPC 0 TD 3/21 rec
M. Tolbert 7 / 26 rush 3.7 YPC 0 TD 2 27 rec
W. McGahee 10 / 25 rush 2.5 YPC 1 TD
J. Harrison 8 / 24 rush 3.0 YPC 0 TD 3 51 rec
J. Forsett 6 / 23 rush 3.8 YPC 0 TD
C. Spiller 4 / 21 rush 5.3 YPC 0 TD
F. Jones 5 / 20 rush 4.0 YPC 1 TD
M. Turner 7 / 19 rush 2.7 YPC 0 TD
B. Green-Ellis 8 / 18 rush 2.3 YPC 0 TD
D. Thomas (MIA) 7 / 16 rush 2.3 YPC 0 TD
A. Dixon 8 / 15 rush 1.9 YPC 0 TD
A. Bradford (TB) 5 / 12 rush 2.4 YPC 0 TD
L. Blount 5 / 10 rush 2.0 YPC 0 TD 3/62 rec
R. Mendenhall 7 / 8 rush 1.1 YPC 1 TD
R. Bush 5 / -1 rush -0.2 YPC 0 TD
R. Jennings 1 / -1 rush -1.0 YPC 0 TD

Yesterday's Fantasy WRs Box Score

L. Fitzgerald 3 / 108 Rec 1 TD 4 targets
R. White 8 / 101 Rec 1 TD 10 targets
B. Marshall 2 / 90 Rec 1 TD 2 targets
E. Bennett 6 / 89 Rec 0 TD 7 targets
V. Jackson 5 / 78 Rec 0 TD 7 targets
S. Johnson 4 / 76 Rec 1 TD 5 targets
W. Welker 3 / 71 Rec 1 TD 5 targets
D. Bryant 5 / 67 Rec 0 TD targets
N. Washington 4 / 66 Rec 0 TD 6 targets
B. Berrian 2 / 64 Rec 1 TD targets
E. Royal 4 / 62 Rec 0 TD 5 targets
J. Jones 5 / 59 Rec 0 TD 13 targets
O. Daniels 6 / 57 Rec 1 TD 7 targets
M. Floyd 5 / 52 Rec 1 TD 8 targets
M. Easley 5 / 51 Rec 1 TD 7 targets
A. Hernandez 5 / 46 Rec 0 TD 8 targets
N. Burleson 2 / 46 Rec 1 TD 3 targets
E. Decker 4 / 45 Rec 1 TD 4 targets
B. Tate 3 / 41 Rec 0 TD 5 targets
M. Thomas 5 / 40 Rec 0 TD 7 targets
J. Hill 2 / 35 Rec 0 TD 5 targets
B. Lloyd 2 / 32 Rec 0 TD 6 targets
C. Johnson 1 / 30 Rec 0 TD 2 targets
M. Williams 3 / 30 Rec 0 TD 4 targets
P. Harvin 4 / 29 Rec 0 TD targets
S. Williams 2 / 29 Rec 0 TD 2 targets
T. Heap 2 / 27 Rec 0 TD 2 targets
M. Williams 3 / 22 Rec 0 TD 5 targets
T. Young(Det) 1 / 19 Rec 0 TD 1 targets
J. Cook 2 / 16 Rec 0 TD 2 targets
S. Rice 2 / 11 Rec 0 TD 5 targets
C. Shorts (JAC) 1 / 3 Rec 0 TD 4 targets
C. Ochocinco 0 / 0 Rec 0 TD 4 targets
 

Barber III,Marion - CHI/RB: Barber injured his calf early against Tennessee and left the game not to return. This is exactly the reason Dallas cut Barber loose several months ago. His physical style has made many people think his body will break down sooner rather than later. He may still be worth picking up as a reserve in deep leagues because of his goal line presence, but he is not expected to do a whole lot with Matt Forte entrenched as starter.

Welker,Wes - NEP/WR: Welker left Saturday night's preseason game at Detroit with a neck injury. Welker appeared to suffer the injury while attempting to make a tackle on an interception thrown by Tom Brady late in the second quarter. The injury is not thought to be serious at this point but getting a straight answer out of Bill Belichick is like asking him to ditch his famed hoodie. Welker's fantasy value took a hit last year following the trade of Randy Moss as opposing defenses were able to better concentrate on stopping Welker since the explosive Moss was gone. Chad Ochocinco moves in this year to replace the Moss Factor which could make Welker a steal as a second WR.

Jennings,Rashad - JAC/RB: Jennings sprained his knee in the first quarter of the preseason game against the Buffalo Bills on Saturday. MJD's backup was hurt on the Jaguars' opening series when he attempted to make a catch in the left flat and got hit by Drayton Florence. Third stringer Deji Karim would move up on the depth chart if Jennings is out for any length of time.

Foster,Arian - HOU/RB: According to CBSSports.com, Foster left the Texans' preseason game at San Francisco on Saturday with a re-aggravation of a left hamstring. Head coach Gary Kubiak confirmed that Foster hurt himself "exactly like he did in camp" following a first half run where he limped off the field under his own power, holding the back of his left leg. "We're keeping our fingers crossed," Kubiak told the Houston station. "That's why you need a lot of [running backs]." He later said he expected Foster to be ready for Week 1. Foster ran well before the injury, totaling 38 yards on eight carries with a 12-yard catch before limping off holding the back of his left leg. It is apparent that Foster's hamstring woes for now are not serious but might linger throughout the season which would be a terrible thing. You have to wonder why Kubiak insists his major players play so much meaningless preseason action - especially RBs who already have a short shelf life. Foster is still being drafted first in many, many leagues so his hamstring issue is being dismissed as a fluke by most.

Wells,Chris - ARI/RB: There is a lot of pressure on Wells this season with Ryan Williams out for the year, but he looked up to the task Saturday night with a nice 10 carry, 63-yard performance against San Diego. Wells has been drafted as either a second or third RB in most leagues which is exactly where he should be going. We think he will put up numbers worthy of a second tier back (1,110 yards and nine TDs) so those owners who picked him will be quite pleased.

Mathews,Ryan - SDC/RB: Mathews rushed 10 times for 69 yards against Arizona Saturday. Despite no injury issues this preseason, many owners are still gun shy about pulling the trigger on Mathews following last year’s disappointing, injury-riddled season. Fantistics project a solid season – 1,125 yards and 10 TDs – so we think he will be a steal in the middle rounds which is where he is usually being picked.

Williams,Micheal - SEA/WR: Williams caught three passes for 30 yards against Denver. Williams is projected to have a similar 2011 to his 2010 – 850 yards and three TDs. Tarvaris Jackson’s sketchy fantasy value definitely does not do Williams’ value any favors. Neither does the presence of Sidney Rice.

Decker,Eric - DEN/WR: The projected starter had a nice game against Seattle – catching four passes for 45 yards and one TD. Decker is sneaking onto most rosters as a late round sleeper which is definitely not a bad idea. Fantistics projects 715 yards and five TDs.

Berrian,Bernard - MIN/WR: Berrian caught two passes for a team-high 64 yards and one TD against Dallas Saturday. Berrian’s fantasy value took a big time tumble last year after a disastrous showing, and despite having a strong preseason, he has become an afterthought in most drafts this year. Percy Harvin is the undisputed #1 WR in town and the arrival of Michael Jenkins and Devin Aromashodu have further diminished Berrian’s fantasy standing. He should still be considered a reserve in very deep leagues but nothing more.

Bryant,Dez - DAL/WR: Bryant’s off the field drama has slightly affected him negatively in drafts thus far but not dramatically. Against Minnesota Saturday he showed he is ready to have a strong year as he caught a game high five passes for 67 yards while being targeted seven times. As long as he doesn't sag his pants too low in Dallas area shopping malls, Fantistics projects 1,110 yards and 11 TDs which essentially means you can get a #1 receiver in the middle rounds of most drafts.

Blount,LeGarrette - TBB/RB: Blount rushed five times for 10 yards but did catch three passes for a team-high 62 yards against Miami. While the receiving numbers are nice and does show he is working on his hands, we all know the power run is how his bread is buttered. Many owners have taken heed and drafted Blount as a strong #2 RB in most leagues. Fantistics projects 1,309 rushing yards and nine TDs – which are 1st tier numbers!

Marshall,Brandon - MIA/WR: For reasons probably related to Miami’s unimpressive quarterback situation, Marshall is being drafted a lot lower in fantasy drafts than you would think. Even though Fantistics projects 107 catches for 1,217 yards and six TDs, Marshall still lasts long past his value. Against Tampa Bay Saturday, he caught two passes for 90 yards and one TD – so he is raring for a very nice season – regardless if most owners are not enamored with Chad Henne.

Stafford,Matthew - DET/QB: Stafford is having a red hot preseason which continued Saturday against New England – as he threw 12-of-14 for 200 yards, two TDs and zero INTs. We all know Stafford’s shoulder issues are the only reasons he is not being drafted where he really should be – in the middle rounds. Scooping him out in the latter rounds is worth the risk because can you imagine if he does stay healthy? Fantistics projects 3,422 yards and 26 TDs – borderline top tier numbers.

Jones,Julio - ATL/WR: Jones caught five passes for 59 yards while being targeted a game high 13 times against Pittsburgh. Jones and Tony Gonzalez will fight this season over being Matt Ryan’s primary second option in the passing game. With all the work he is getting in the preseason, Jones (and the team of course) wants to show he was worth all those draft picks Atlanta forked over to Cleveland this past April. Fantistics projects 855 yards and five TDs with upside.

Brown,Antonio - PIT/WR: If there was any doubt that Brown would not land the 3rd WR slot in Pitt, he likely eliminated that doubt with a fantastic game against Atlanta – catching four passes for 137 yards and two TDs. Mike Wallace is the undisputed fantasy WR king in Pitt, while Hines Ward is entering his 14th year in the league and Emmanuel Sanders is still overcoming foot surgery. Brown is taking advantage of Ward’s age and Sanders’ health to raise his profile. The diminutive yet explosive Brown would make a brilliant fantasy reserve for the early part of the season at the very least.

Johnson,Steve - BUF/WR: After Buffalo surprisingly traded Lee Evans to Baltimore – many owners slightly downgraded Johnson because the double teams reserved for Evans will now shift Johnson’s way. For one day anyway, Johnson stated a strong case for those who predicted a breakout year for him as he caught four passes for 76 yards and one TD against Jacksonville. Johnson will be hard pressed to match his 10 TD total of last year but he should get close. Could you imagine what he could do if he had a Pro Bowl level QB throwing him the ball?

Britt,Kenny - TEN/WR: NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has told Britt and the Titans that he will not punish the receiver for his arrests during the lockout. No, this is not a misprint. Goodell, who has previously suspended various players for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy - players that were never charged with a crime and/or arrested - did not drop down the hammer on a guy who was arrested three times this year. Britt is the 20th ranked receiver (lower first tier/strong second tier WR) on my board after this latest news. Do consider that if Matt Hasselbeck flops in Nashville, rookie Jake Locker will see a lot of time behind center which would not bode well for any Titan WR.

Broncos, Denver - DEN/D: Denver suffered some injuries Saturday night during a matchup against Seattle. they lost Brodrick Bunkley to a right knee injury on a chop block by Robert Gallery, and linebacker D.J. Williams to a sprained right elbow. Williams, who has led the Broncos in tackles in three of the last four seasons, had a sling on in the locker room and his arm was heavily taped up past the biceps. He said he'll be all right but didn't elaborate as far as a timetable for his return. Williams is a significant player in IDP leagues so please monitor his status closely.

Clark,Desmond - CHI/TE: Against Tennessee Saturday night, Clark was carted off the field in the fourth quarter after suffering a knee injury. This is not good news for a team that traded Greg Olsen to Carolina earlier this year. Projected started TE Kellen Davis is not expected to be a realistic fantasy option this season in most formats.

Texans, Houston - HOU/D: Texans LB Xavier Adibi suffered a stinger in his shoulder against San Francisco while S Glover Quin got "dinged," according to head coach Gary Kubiak. He might have suffered a concussion. Adibi has very little fantasy value in IDP leagues but Quin is a solid S pickup (85 tackles and three INTs last year). Let's hope his likely concussion improves quickly.

8/27/2011

Yesterday's Fantasy QBs Box Score

S. Bradford 9/16 95 yards  2 TD 1 INT 87.2 rating
M. Cassel 6/13 59 yards  59.5 rating
A. Rodgers 19/23 204 yards  1 TD  118.1 rating
C. Painter 11/21 171yards  2 TD 111.4 rating

Yesterday's Fantasy RBs Box Score

S. Jackson 15/72 rush 4.8  YPC  
J. Charles 2/4 rush 2.0  YPC
J. Addai 8/44 rush 5.5  YPC
D. Carter (IND) 7/27 rush 3.9
R. Grant 6/16 rush 2.7  YPC
A. Green (GBP) 5/8 rush 1.6 YPC
J. Starks 1/2 rush 2.0 YPC  5/38 rec

Yesterday's Fantasy WRs Box Score

L. Kendricks (STL) 2/26 rec yards 1 TD 2  targets
D. Avery 2/26 rec yards  5 targets
D. Amendola 2/15 rec yards  2 targets
D. Alexander 1/3 rec yards  3 targets
D. McCluster 5/37 rec yards  6 targets
S. Breaston 2/14rec yards  3 targets
R. Wayne 6/105 rec yards 1 TD 9 targets
P. Garcon 1/36 rec yards 7 targets
T. Smith 1/6 rec yards 3 targets
J. Nelson 5/65 rec yards 5 targets
J. Finley 4/41 rec yards  1 TD 5 targets
D. Driver 3/38 rec yards 5 targets

Quarterbacks: Matt Cassel just isn't looking very good this preseason, coming into this game, Cassel was taking heat for his lack of accuracy this preseason. He's working with a new offensive coordinator, so part of it could be explained away...but he's going to be starting the season under tremendous scrutiny.

Runningbacks: The Colts Rookie Delone Carter showed flashes of burst, but didn't get a look until the end of the 3rd quarter (an indication of his standing to start the season). On his 4th carry he fumbled, but the call was reversed...and the play ended up being his best run of the night- 12 yards. He did run for 2 first downs over his 7 carries, and it must be noted that the Packers were stacking the box against the run.. Regardless it's clear that Joseph Addai will start the season as the main squeeze in Indy. Packers Rookie RB Alex Green started the 3rd quarter, but seemed to be overwhelmed at times. He looked hesitant at times, but did hit a hole for 12 yards. He's clearly not ready to take the reins, and there is little chance that the Packers will drop Ryan Grant at this point.

Wide Receivers: Pierre Garcon had a big catch, but for the most part he was missing catch-able balls...a concerning trend. Rookie TE Lance Kendricks is moving up our draft boards, he's going to be an impact rookie TE.

A big slate of games this evening, more updates coming tomorrow. - Have a great weekend, Anthony

Rookie WR Torrey Smith Needs to Work on Concentration after Drops
Torrey Smith finished with one catch for six yards in the Ravens’ 34-31 win against the Washington Redskins Thursday night. But the rookie wide receiver dropped two balls from quarterback Joe Flacco that hit him in the hands. The most egregious occurred on third down-and-3 on the Ravens’ 48 in the first quarter when Smith couldn’t hang onto a pass on a slant route. “I can catch the ball,” Smith assured reporters after the game. “I know I can catch the ball. It’s just a concentration issue. Like I said, I’ve been practicing just wanting to make a play, wanting to make an impact instead of just letting it come to me. I was wide open on one of them. So I’ve just got to get back to the basics and start feeling like myself.”
Source: Baltimore Sun

It's becoming evident that Torrey Smith will not be a big factor this season. Here's what our analyst Jasbir Singh said about Smith in our rookie analysis:

Torrey Smith – Baltimore Ravens (2^nd round/58^th overall – Maryland)

College:  Smith improved each year in college and after a knockout junior season, he decided it was time to leave for greener pastures.  As a junior he caught 67 passes for 1,055 yards, 12 TDs and registered four 100-yard games.  His best effort came against North Carolina State when he caught 14 passes for 224 yards and a school record four TDs!  He caught seven or more passes in five games.  Smith stands at 6’0”, 205 lbs so he does not have imposing size but he can run a 4.37 x 40.  It’s this speed, above average ball skills and good route running that allowed him to achieve so much success in college.  It should be noted that part of the reason the Ravens were so enthralled by him is the fact he is a high character individual with a strong work ethic which bodes well for his trip to the next level.                           

NFL Outlook:  Although he would have benefited from another year in college refining his route running, he steps into an attractive situation in Baltimore.  Admittedly however, the recent trade for Lee Evans does put a slight damper on it.  Smith’s new team made the play for the speedy Evans when Derrick Mason signed with the NY Jets.  Now Smith will be fighting for playing time at the third WR position which is always tough for a rookie, but the fact that pass-catching TE Todd Heap was cut makes it easier for Smith to attempt his breakthrough.  Baltimore likes to run Ray Rice to set up the pass which is going to benefit Anquan Boldin and Evans first and foremost, however, Smith has a role to play (deep threat) and will be given plenty of opportunities to play that role.  Fantistics projects Joe Flacco to come very close to 4,000 passing yards which is exactly what Smith wants to hear.  He just has to make sure he doesn’t get stuck in a numbers game.  Barring injury, Fantistics projects 44 catches for 650 yards and five TDs.              

Dynasty Outlook:   Smith was taken in the early parts of the second round in most of the dynasty drafts I participated in or had access to.  Like Titus Young before him, Smith was passed over by other receivers such as Greg Little, Randall Cobb, Leonard Hankerson and Vincent Brown which shows me a tremendous lack of confidence in Joe Flacco spreading the wealth.  What some owners need to consider is the departure of not only Todd Heap but Flacco favorite Mason.  That is almost 100 receptions right there so Flacco will have to take some chances, and why not with a speedy youngster who is mature beyond his years?  Smith should be an afterthought in nonkeeper leagues but I do not think he should drop out of the top five receivers taken in any dynasty league. 

QB Cam Newton Having Trouble Hitting Wide Receivers
One game might be a farce, but three is the beginning of a pattern. Rookie quarterback Cam Newton is doing fine with getting the ball to his tight ends and running backs, but is really struggling completing passes to his receivers.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Through three games, Newton is a respectable 12 of 17 for 157 yards when throwing to his tight ends. And, he’s a decent 5 of 9 for 65 yards when throwing to his running backs. But when it comes to throwing to his receivers, Newton is a pathetic 4 of 26 for 53 yards. That's right, 22 incompletions in 26 attempts. If you take away a 36-yard pass play to Armanti Edwards in the first game and Newton has completed just three passes for 17 yards to his receivers in seven quarters of action.
Source: Gaston Gazette

Cam Newton is a run and shoot QB....this is who he is. To expect him to convert into a pocket passer, is clearly not going to happen in his first season, and may never...From a fantasy perspective, he's going to struggle putting up consistent passing yards, but will excel with 60-70 yards a game with a rushing TD sprinkled in.

Lovie Smith Impressed with RB Marion Barber
Apparently, watching Marion Barber get stuffed on consecutive short-yardage situations Monday night didn't bother Lovie Smith. The Bears coach couldn't stop raving about his new running back as the team prepared for Saturday's exhibition at Tennessee. "You can always use a hard-nosed tough tailback to get those tough yards, and he has a history in the NFL,'' Smith said. "Our players, we know. We thought he would be a good addition to our team. He's one guy that I haven't been really disappointed in his play. Both times he's gotten an opportunity to play he's showed us why we went out and got him and why he'll be a valuable part of our offense this year."
But Smith stop short of naming Barber the backup behind starter Matt Forte.
"He's one of our running backs right now,'' Smith said. "He's getting reps."
Source: Chicago Tribune

The fantasy offshoot of this is how much will Barber take away from Forte...Martz historically likes to use a primary back system, so the effect should be minimal. Forte did have a big 2nd half last year (668 yards in the 2nd half)...

WR Demaryius Thomas Improving, Still Likely to Begin Season on PUP List
WR Demaryius Thomas isn't expected back until about midseason after Achilles surgery. But the 2010 first-round pick seems to be stepping up his rehabilitation routine. Thomas was high stepping rapidly on an adjacent field, then went full speed on some straight-line sprints. Thomas will begin on the season on the PUP list and be ineligible to practice until Week 6.
Source: CBS Sportsline

We expected Thomas to be an undervalued sleeper coming into camps...not so much now.

RB Brandon Jackson Could Miss Season with Toe Injury
The seasons of Browns starting left guard Eric Steinbach (disk) and third-down running back Brandon Jackson (toe) are in doubt because of their injuries, a source said Friday. Both players could end up on injured reserve for the season depending on how their injuries progress over the next few days or week.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Jackson was not a draft consideration this season as he was expected to play behind Hillis and Hardesty.


QB Aaron Rodgers Nearly Perfect Against Colts on Friday
After using one no-huddle series in each of the first two preseason games, Packers coach Mike McCarthy went all in with his newest offensive toy. He used it on four first-half possessions with his starting offense on Friday against the Indianapolis Colts, and it got him 10 points — an 18-yard touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to tight end Jermichael Finley in the first quarter and a 26-yard Mason Crosby field goal in the second quarter.
Rodgers finished Friday’s game by completing 19 of 23 passes for 204 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions for a rating of 118.1.
Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette

This just in, Aaron Rodger is good! Rodgers has a very favorable matchup in 5 of the first 7 weeks.

WR Reggie Wayne Stars in Friday’s Preseason Contest
Reggie Wayne and many Colts starters played through the first series of the third quarter. Wayne caught six passes for 105 yards and a touchdown.
Source: Indianapolis Star

Wayne had 8 Quality Starts in 2010, after 10 QS in 2009. Expect a downtick in total yards, but uptick in TDs.

QB Peyton Manning Hopeful He’ll Be Ready for Season Opener
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning said he's in the middle of his rehabilitation from neck surgery but hopeful he will mend in time to play in the Sept. 11 season opener at Houston. CBS Sports sideline reporter Sam Ryan asked Manning during the Colts' 24-21 loss to Green Bay on Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium if the four-time NFL MVP thinks he will be ready.
"Boy, I sure hope so, Sam," he said. "I've never missed a game my entire football career due to an injury, since I was all of 13 years old. I sure don't want to start Week 1 (missing a game) this season. "That's my goal, to be out there, to play and not just to play but to play competitively. I want to be out there to help my team win. And if I'm able to do so, I'll be out there. I'm going to use this valuable time these next few weeks and see what happens with it when the time is right."
Source: Indianapolis Star

Manning faces the most difficult part of his schedule early on. Starting in week 2 when the Colts play Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. Three of his toughest SOD all season.

RB Daniel Thomas Needs a Big Game Saturday after Another Rough Week in Practice
Daniel Thomas, the rookie second-round pick, hasn’t had a great camp so far. Tony Sparano and running backs coach Jeff Nixon both scolded him in the last week for not going full-speed in practice and tip-toeing in the backfield. And he has struggled in two preseason games – Thomas had just five rushing yards on four attempts in the first preseason game, and failed to get into the end zone on three straight runs from the 1-yard line against Carolina. Thomas picked up his performance against the Panthers, finishing with 52 rushing yards and a touchdown. But after struggling in practice this week, Thomas needs to string several strong runs together against the Bucs to get back in the good graces of the coaching staff.
Source: Palm Beach Post

Thomas needs to show that he can be successful in short yardage situations, as that is the role he was expected to fill this season.

RB Mark Ingram Will Play Sunday Night, Lance Moore Out with Groin Injury
New Orleans Saints running back Mark Ingram insisted Thursday the knee that kept him out of practice for two days is fine. Ingram, who has looked strong throughout his rookie training camp, returned to practice Thursday, along with linebacker Will Herring. On the same day, wide receiver Lance Moore, a veteran also having an excellent camp, went out with what Coach Sean Payton described as a groin injury. Ingram and Herring will play Sunday night in Oakland; Moore will not, according to Payton.
Source: The Times-Picayune

Mark Ingram will face two of the fiercest run defenses the first 2 weeks (@GB & CHI).

RB Ahmad Bradshaw Likely to Miss Third Preseason Game with Back Injury
Top tailback Ahmad Bradshaw, who sat out practice on Thursday with a sore back, is still not fully healthy, coach Tom Coughlin said Friday. And that has the coach worried. "He's doing all right," Coughlin said at a fan festival celebrating the newly renamed MetLife Stadium. "I'm a little bit concerned about this 'lingering' business. But it's not anything that I'm told is a real issue." It's highly unlikely that Bradshaw will play Saturday afternoon against the Jets. He suffered the injury in Monday night's win over the Chicago Bears, when he took a knee to the back, Coughlin said. He practiced on Wednesday, but spent Thursday watching from the sidelines.
Source: New York Daily News

This doesn't sound like it will be a lingering injury, no reason to downgrade Bradshaw over this.

RB Frank Gore Snaps at Coaches as Contract Frustrations Mount
Frank Gore's frustration has grown to the point that those around him say they've never seen the 49ers' running back as frustrated as he's been over the past couple weeks. One team source said Gore has uncharacteristically "snapped" at some of the team's assistant coaches as his concern has grown over not receiving a contract extension. Gore is signed through the upcoming season at approximately $5 million. Gore is not pleased he has played more in the exhibition season than in previous years, which puts him more at risk for injury while he awaits a new contract, the source said. Gore said this week he wants a contract extension prior to the start of the regular season so he can concentrate solely on playing football.
Source: CSN Bay Area

Wow...as we mentioned during the week, this is turning into a volatile situation. The emergence of rookie Kendall Hunter behind the capable Anthony Dixon, makes this a precarious situation for the 49ers...they very well might hold fast and not offer that type of money...which is clouding the draft day value of Gore. I know that the Cardinals and Lions have a void...but the Cardinals just broke the bank on Fitzgerald...
 

8/26/2011

Yesterday's Fantasy QBs Box Score

C. McCoy 9/18 89 yards  1 INT 41.2 rating
M. Vick 10/18 98 yards  71.1 rating 4/24 Rush 1 TD
A. Dalton 11/17 130 yards  1 TD 107.5 rating
C. Newton (CAR) 6/19 75 yards  44.8  rating 4/49 Rush 1 TD
J. Clausen 4/7 35 yards   70.5 rating
J. Flacco 17/27 219 yards  2 TD 1 INT 97.6 rating
J. Beck 6/10 108 yards  1 TD 1 INT 90.8 rating
R. Grossman 8/15 112 yards 1 TD 99.9 rating
 

Yesterday's Fantasy RBs Box Score

L. McCoy 6/12  rush 2.0 YPC 7/69 rec
R. Rice 13/72  rush 5.5 YPC 1 TD
P. Hillis 3/18  rush 6.0  YPC  2/35 rec
M. Hardesty 5/15  rush 3.0  YPC
D. Williams 5/27  rush 5.4  YPC
J. Stewart 8/13  rush 1.6  YPC
C. Benson 16/68  rush 4.3  YPC  1 TD
B. Scott 6/63  rush 10.5  YPC  1 TD
T. Hightower 9/56  rush 6.2 1 TD
D. Lewis (PHI) 9/41  rush 4.6  YPC
A. Allen (BAL) 4/27  rush 6.8  YPC
R. Helu (WAS) 13/44  rush 3.4  YPC

Yesterday's Fantasy WRs Box Score

A. Boldin 5/73 rec yards  1 TD 6 targets
L. Evans 3/60  rec yards  1 TD 5 targets
E. Dickson 3/57  rec yards  4 targets
S. Moss 3/51 rec yards 1 TD  8 targets
J. Gresham 4/49 rec yards 5 targets
B. Robiskie 3/23 rec yards 4 targets
F. Davis 1/19 rec yards 4 targets
J. Shipley 3/15 rec yards 3 targets
D. Jackson 0/0 rec yards 4 targets
J. Simpson 0/0 rec yards 1 targets
S. Smith 1/9 rec yards 8 targets
A. Green (CIN) 2/45 rec yards 1 TD  5 targets
G. Little (CLE) 3/23 rec yards 4 targets
T. Doss (BAL) 2/28 rec yards 3 targets
L. Hankerson(WAS)1/11 rec yards 1 targets
T. Smith (BAL) 1/6 rec yards 3 targets
 

Quarterbacks: Colt McCoy took a step back in his progression, but one has to consider that the Eagles defense is well above average...and what you see is what you should expect from a yet non elite QB...there will be bumpy starts ahead in only his sophomore campaign. Michael Vick had another high contact encounter...the O line is missing coverages and the risk that Vick doesn't last the entire season is real. Although the passing numbers were pedestrian...he did it again with his legs, scoring a TD. Cam Newton struggled passing the ball (again), but in Michael Vick fashion ran for 49 yards with a rushing score. Newton will put up decent fantasy numbers some weeks and is only a consideration in leagues that start 2 QBs (as a bye week consideration). It's quite clear that his legs will pad his passing totals....think more Vince Young than Michael Vick.  Andy Dalton showed a flash of brilliance that many have been expecting. He chewed apart a below average Carolina defense, a defense that was missing some key components. He's still not a draft-able commodity in most fantasy formats....although the sign of life gives hope to the other fantasy skill position players around him. Once again Joe Flacco utilized his newest weapon (Lee Evans) on offense and his final numbers were quite impressive for just over a half of play (17/27 - 219 yards 2 TD 1 INT). John Beck and Rex Grossman alternated series and both posted similar numbers...this battle might not be settled until the final preseason game.

Runningbacks: LeSean McCoy, Ray Rice, Peyton Hillis, Cedric Benson, and DeAngelo Williams all look ready for the season. Cleveland's Monterio Hardesty looked ordinary in his first game back since blowing out his knee last preseason, he'll improve from here but clearly Peyton Hillis remains the lead back for the Browns. Tim Hightower continues to run with a passion, last night tallying 56 yards on just 9 runs (TD included). Many find it difficult to change their impression of Hightower...and the prospect of him as a lead back. However with Torain out, Hightower has clearly grabbed the reins in this favorable runningback offense. Rookie Roy Helu, took in a dose of reality last night, only gaining 44 yards on 13 carries. He's been impressive enough to be part of this offense, but his role will be uncertain when Ryan Torrain returns.

Wide Receivers: Sleeper Tight Ends BAL Ed Dickson and CIN Jeremy Gresham both had a solid evening....both are not seeing any love in drafts and both have the potential to become significant fantasy producers at their position. You have to like how the Ravens are utilizing Lee Evans, he's going to be a different player this year and he vastly changes the prospect of Anquan Boldin. Jordan Shipley is a poor man's Wes Welker and he's being completely ignored in most drafts, Fantistics software subscribers are finding him more prominently positioned.  You can't help but feel disappointed for rebound prospect of  CAR Steve Smith. Last night, 8 targeted passes and only 1 reception...not good. I'm passing on him this preseason and grabbing the other Steve Smith (PHI) in the final rounds of my deep drafts, Most fantasy folks don't realize that he's already practicing and may be back within a few weeks. I like how WR Brian Robiskie has looked recently and he's reversed a trend that was going to land him in the doghouse. With  Muhammed Massaquoi nursing a bone chip on his foot, it appears that Rookie Greg Little will win a starting role when the season opens. Bengal's Rookie WR AJ Green's stock shot up last night with one 40 yard reception that went for a TD. He's a star in the making, but like Dalton, there will be stretches where he won't show in the box score so we are tempering our expectations.

That's it for today folks, many more games tonight! - Have a safe weekend, Anthony

QB Joe Flacco Overcomes Early Mistake in Strong Effort Thursday
In perhaps the last preseason action this year for Joe Flacco, the lasting impression of the Ravens quarterback was his resiliency. Bouncing back from having an interception returned for a touchdown on the opening drive, Flacco threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns in Thursday night's 34-31 comeback win over the Washington Redskins before a half-filled M&T Bank Stadium.
Source: Baltimore Sun

WR Lee Evans Impresses Again in Second Game with Ravens
After excelling in his debut against the Kansas City Chiefs on Friday night, Lee Evans posted his encore against the Redskins. Evans caught three passes for 60 yards, including a 35-yard touchdown from quarterback Joe Flacco with 5:41 left in the second quarter. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said this week that Evans, who gained 68 yards on three receptions against the Chiefs, has fit in quickly in the offense. "He is a good football player, and he is going to help us win," Cameron said. "He has a chance to help us win a championship. He sees the big picture."
Source: Baltimore Sun

Injuries for LB Shawne Merriman, DT Marcell Dareus Improving
Marcell Dareus walking without crutches and Shawn Merriman participating in practice were welcome sights for the Buffalo Bills. Dareus didn't practice on Thursday at One Bills Drive and says he's questionable for the team's third preseason game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Meanwhile Merriman says his injured groin is feeling better and he hopes to play on Saturday, but like Dareus is questionable. Merriman and the Bills are trying to make sure he's ready for the team's season opener Sept. 11 at Kansas City.
Source: Buffalo News

WR Steve Smith Does Little in Panthers’ Third Preseason Game
WR Steve Smith was a non-factor in the passing game. He caught a 9-yard reception early on from QB Cam Newton but that was it. It wasn't from a lack of trying. Newton looked Smith's way several times, but the two struggled to hook up as Newton's accuracy (6 of 19 passing) was off for most of the night. "Steve is a big part of our offense," Newton said. "Not just him but all of the other receivers also. We have a lot of playmakers. It starts with me being the distributor -- getting those guys the ball."
Source: Charlotte Observer

QB Cam Newton Struggles in Three Quarters on Thursday
Cam Newton started and played three quarters as promised.
His performance Thursday night was a microcosm of his entire training camp and preseason – a few great highlight reel plays, but also a lot of poor passes. After Gamble recovered a fumble on Cincinnati’s first series, Newton capped an eight-play, 46-yard touchdown drive with an impressive athletic 16-yard touchdown run off a scramble, a play where he cut back inside to avoid one defender and spun off another reached the ball across the goal line for a 7-0 lead. But outside of another 26-yard run and a nice 28-yard touch pass to tight end Greg Olsen, Newton struggled and generally looked uncomfortable throwing the ball in the pocket. Even the anticipated return of wide receiver Steve Smith (1 catch, 9 yards) didn’t help. Newton finished 6 of 19 for 75 yards, which means he’s only completed 40.4 percent (21 of 52) of his passes, although he’s not thrown an interception.
Source: Gaston Gazette

Rookie QB Andy Dalton Improves in Third Exhibition Game, Connects with WR A.J. Green
With 25 of the 42 plays in the first half being runs, the Bengals held the ball for 19 minutes and four seconds. That helped open things up for Andy Dalton, who was 11 of 17 for 130 yards with a touchdown and a 107.5 passer rating. After struggling on downfield throws the first two games, Dalton and A.J. Green finally connected on what fans hope is the first of many. With the score tied at 7 midway through the second quarter, Dalton lofted a pass down the right sideline which Green hauled in for a 40 yard touchdown.
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

RBs Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott Run Wild Against Panthers
With the offensive line and fullback setting key blocks and the receivers sealing things on the outside, the Bengals averaged 5.6 yards per carry in the first half and 4.7 for the game. Cedric Benson had 16 carries for 68 yards. On the 15-play, 80-yard drive which tied the game at seven, Benson had 11 carries for 53 yards including a 1-yard touchdown around left end.
Bernard Scott, who was seeing his first action of the preseason, had 63 yards on six carries, including a 12-yard run around left end to make it 21-7 with 1:29 left in the first half. That touchdown came after Armanti Edwards muffed a punt which was recovered by Manny Lawson at the Panthers 12.
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

QB Colt McCoy Struggles Against Eagles Thursday
It rained on Colt McCoy's parade here Thursday night. Real hard.
But intermittent downpours in Lincoln Financial Field weren't the problem for the Browns' offense. The Philadelphia Eagles' defense disrupted McCoy's rhythm, forced one interception, hurried numerous throws, sacked him three times and influenced four called penalties on the Browns' offensive line.
McCoy was shut out of the end zone on six possessions after leading five touchdowns in nine previous drives. The Eagles took a 17-0 lead and cruised to a 24-14 victory in the traditional dress rehearsal for the season opener.
After two stellar performances, McCoy had his first poor outing of the preseason, completing nine of 18 attempts for 89 yards with an interception. His 41.2 rating compared to his 132.6 over the first two games.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

RB Monterio Hardesty Injury-Free After First Preseason Appearance
Montario Hardesty withstood the first test of his left knee in almost a year Thursday night against the Eagles. Hardesty, who suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the final preseason game of last season, gained 15 yards on his five carries on one drive in the first quarter – emerging unscathed. Coach Pat Shurmur wanted to get Hardesty's feet wet but not soaked, and he was out of the game by the time the heavy rains came at the end of the second quarter.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

RBs Tashard Choice, DeMarco Murray Still Questionable for Saturday’s Game
Linebacker Keith Brooking (hamstring), running back Tashard Choice (calf) and running back DeMarco Murray (hamstring) returned to practice this week after being sidelined for the bulk of camp with injuries. But they have yet to be cleared to play in Saturday's preseason game against the Vikings.  Coach Jason Garrett said the three players have done a good job in practice, and they will continue to evaluate how they have responded before making a final decision on their availability for theh Vikings game.
Source: Fort Worth Star-Telegram

Lions’ Rookie WR Titus Young Cleared for Saturday’s Game, RB Jahvid Best Ruled Out
Jim Schwartz may not know what he's going to see from Titus Young, but he's just glad he'll finally get to see Detroit's rookie receiver on the field for a game. Young, who missed most of training camp and both preseason games so far with a hamstring injury, practiced all week and will play when the Lions host the New England Patriots on Saturday at 8 p.m. The Lions were careful with the 23-year-old, gradually allowing him to participate in more and more each practice, and they're comfortable enough to let him see his first NFL game action. Though he didn't have a full list of players ruled out for Saturday's game, Schwartz ruled out Detroit players who have long-term injuries, such as: Jason Fox, Nick Fairley and Alphonso Smith. Running backs
Jahvid Best and Maurice Morris have participated in some or all of this week's practices, but won't play against New England, said Schwartz.
Source: MLive.com

RB James Starks Has Opportunity to Seize No.1 Role from Ryan Grant
Ryan Grant’s pay cut is a smart decision for both parties. The Packers would pay $1 million less in Grant’s base salary and Grant protects himself from the possibility of playing at the minimum elsewhere if he was cut. Fiscally, it makes plenty of sense for all involved. So what now? Well, Grant has been OK this training camp. Not bad, not great. While he missed the opportunity at a long run against Arizona last week, zigging instead of zagging, the three-year starter still has averaged 4.5 yards per carry. His repaired ankle is fine and, as expected, he’s in tip-top shape. But Grant’s pay cut may be telling us what we’re seeing in practice — James Starks is the superior back. To stick around, Grant had to take less. If Starks wants the top spot, he can earn it.
In snapshots, Starks has looked better this summer. He’s running with more decisiveness and more power. He has shown improved patience, hitting holes with explosion. With quick whistles, camp practices are tough gauges for running backs. But, when healthy, Starks has not disappointed.
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

Elbow Injury May Keep LB DeMeco Ryans out of Saturday’s Preseason Contest
Because of rain, the Texans practiced Thursday inside their training bubble, which is lined with artificial turf. Inside linebacker DeMeco Ryans, who missed last Saturday's preseason victory against New Orleans because of an elbow injury, didn't go Thursday, and Gary Kubiak wasn't sure where that left Ryans in terms of Saturday's exhibition in San Francisco. "We'll wake up (Friday) and see where he's at," Kubiak said. "Obviously, he hasn't had any work this week. That really doesn't scare me really as much as just that we do the right thing with him."
Source: Houston Chronicle

WR Austin Collie’s New Helmet Designed to Lessen Chance of Concussions
In addition to competing for spots on the 53-man roster, five Indianapolis Colts veterans are having tryouts for helmets this preseason. It began in February when wide receiver Austin Collie, who suffered two concussions and a recurrence last season, began working with Hall of Fame motor sports safety pioneer Bill Simpson. While Collie has declined to discuss his new carbon fiber Kevlar helmet, which has additional padding and weighs just two pounds as opposed to the typical five- to seven-pound models, Simpson said the receiver has told him he likes it. "I think weight is the biggest issue," said Simpson, 71. "If a five-pound helmet at 20 mph hits a wall and a two-pound helmet at 20 mph hits a wall, the five-pound one is going to have way more energy than the two-pound one. That's just simple physics. "We need to find out what the weaknesses are and the strengths. The most important thing is to lessen the effect of concussions."
Source: Indianapolis Star

Vikings Receivers Coach Excited About Michael Jenkins
One reason wide receivers coach George Stewart is high on his group of receivers is the presence of Michael Jenkins, who Stewart was instrumental in drafting out of Ohio State when he was on the Atlanta Falcons staff in 2004. "I drafted Michael Jenkins. He's a blessing in disguise," Stewart said. "He comes here, he brings leadership, he brings veteran experience, he's able to catch the ball, he's able to stretch the field, he's a great run-blocker. All those things combined into one. We're glad to have Michael Jenkins here."
The 6-4 wide receiver had 276 receptions, 3,512 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns for the Falcons over seven seasons.
Source: Minneapolis Star-Tribune

Patriots Rookie RB Shane Vereen Admits He’s Fallen Behind, Unsure About Status for Saturday
Shane Vereen admits he’s currently behind the learning curve this preseason. After all, with the late start, all rookies are.
But as the lockout presented a challenge for first-year players, it’s his hamstring, not learning the playbook, that set the 22-year-old back in training camp.
The second-round pick out of California returned to practice Wednesday for the first time since Aug. 3, and has yet to appear in a preseason game because of the injury. Though he’s unsure if he’ll play or travel to Detroit , the running back says he’s making progress.
“I’m getting there. I’m getting real close and working hard, training and everything like that, getting ready to go,” Vereen said. “I think the biggest challenge was obviously my hamstring. Coming back and then being out once again. Not really being able to get a feel for everything.”
Source: Boston Herald

RB Ahmad Bradshaw Misses Practice with Back Injury
Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw did not practice because he’s sore after taking a knee to his back in Monday’s win over the Chicago Bears. Coughlin did not expect the injury to become a problem, although he wasn’t sure whether Bradshaw would play against the Jets on Saturday.
Bradshaw was not available for comment.
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

QB Michael Vick OK in Thursday’s Win, RB LeSean McCoy Active in Passing Game
Michael Vick's passing numbers were pedestrian - 10 of 18 for 98 yards - and he connected with one of his wide receivers just once. But he avoided throwing an interception and scored the Eagles' second touchdown when he ran 8 yards untouched into the end zone for a 17-0 lead. LeSean McCoy was a busy back. He gained only 12 yards on six carries, but he also caught seven passes for 69 yards as Vick was forced to check down repeatedly. Vick targeted his wide receivers seven times, but only Jason Avant came up with a catch - a 14-yarder with 5 minutes, 35 seconds to go before the break.
Source: Philadelphia Inquirer

Steelers’ WR Emmanuel Sanders Unlikely To Return in Preseason
Emmanuel Sanders was on the field on a limited basis Wednesday for the second consecutive day but won't play against Atlanta on Saturday and likely will miss the preseason finale in Carolina. Still, the Steelers receiver said his injured left foot will be ready enough for the season opener at Baltimore.
"I'm feeling good, really good, actually," Sanders said. "I practiced, doing some individual work, and it felt pretty good out there.'' Sanders broke his right foot in Super Bowl XLV and learned in April he had a stress fracture in his left foot that required minor surgery three weeks ago. "The X-rays show that everything is healing as expected, and I'm right on schedule for me to play in that first game," Sanders said. "I'll just continue to do a little bit more every day and keep picking up the pace of my workouts, and we'll see where I'm at in another two weeks."
Source: Pittsburgh Tribune-Review

QB Alex Smith to Start Saturday, May Play a Second Shift
Quarterback Alex Smith will start the 49ers' third exhibition game Saturday night against the Houston Texans, coach Jim Harbaugh said.
Colin Kaepernick will get into the game as early as the 49ers' third offensive possession. And, then, Smith might return the favor and replace Kaepernick.
Harbaugh is taking a non-traditional approach to the third exhibition game, which is typically the closest thing to a dress rehearsal to the regular season. Instead, Harbaugh said he will likely use the opportunity to get many of the team's top reserves ready for the regular season.
Source: CSN Bay Area

WR Michael Crabtree Remains Sidelined with Foot Injury, Contributing in Meetings
Receiver Michael Crabtree has yet to be removed from the physically-unable-to-perform list after reporting to training camp with a left foot injury. But the 49ers expect major contributions out of him during the regular season.
Behind the scenes, Crabtree is rehabbing his foot and being an active member of group discussions, Harbaugh said. "He's been outstanding with his participation in the meetings," Harbaugh said. "His understanding and knowledge of what we're trying to do is very good."
Source: CSN Bay Area

RB Marshawn Lynch Likely Out for Saturday’s Preseason Contest
Running back Marshawn Lynch missed his second day of practice because of a sore ankle, and safety Kam Chancellor continued to sit out with a sore foot. Neither is expected to play for Seattle in Saturday's exhibition game at Denver.
Source: Seattle Times

TE Kellen Winslow to See Game Action on Saturday
TE Kellen Winslow is used to being held. But in the preseason, the guy who locks onto his jersey the tightest is Bucs coach Raheem Morris. That's because Morris believes Winslow is going to post elite numbers as long as they get him and his chronically sore knee to the starting line of the regular season. But even as hard as Winslow practices, he still needs playing time in a preseason game, and he will finally get them Saturday against the Dolphins.
"I'm a rep guy. I need game reps," Winslow said. "My situation is what it is, but I still have been practicing doing the things I need to get ready for the game. But nothing is like the game speed. You have to be hit, so I just need game speed and I'm ready." By all accounts, Winslow has had one of the best training camps of his career, perhaps aided by the fact that for the first time since 2008 he didn't have at least an arthroscopic procedure done on his right knee in the offseason. But to play, he needs a lot of treatment, including a daily regimen of electro-stimulation therapy.
Source: St. Petersburg Times

Titans’ WR Damian Williams Seeing Increased Time with First Unit
Titans receiver Damian Williams started last week’s game against the Rams, and he’s taken an increasing number of first-team reps this week.
“I’ve been working really hard trying to make sure I know the ins and outs of the offense, and it’s a good feeling to know that they feel comfortable putting you in,” Williams said.
Source: Nashville Tennessean

WR Kenny Britt to Sit Saturday, Likely Back for Final Preseason Game
Kenny Britt will miss his third straight preseason game on Saturday, with the Titans choosing to play it cautious as Britt recovers from a hamstring and quad injuries. Britt is likely to play in the final preseason game on Sept. 1 at New Orleans, Coach Mike Munchak said. “Because of the short week, we’d probably rather not have him play this one and then have to come back in five days and play again,” Munchak said. “We’d rather just let him play a little longer in that fourth one and that would give him 10 days after that game to be at full strength in the beginning of the season.”
Source: Nashville Tennessean

RB Javon Ringer May Miss Remaining Preseason Games, Expected Back for Opener
Running back Javon Ringer (hip), defensive ends Jason Jones (knee) and Derrick Morgan (knee) and offensive lineman Troy Kropog (knee) are expected to sit out Saturday’s game. Ringer will miss his second straight game. He did not practice this week and said he’s not sure he’ll play in the preseason finale. Munchak said expects the four to be ready for the season opener on Sept. 11.
Source: Nashville Tennessean

John Beck, Rex Grossman Remain Even in Redskins QB Competition
If coach Mike Shanahan already has decided that John Beck will be the Washington Redskins‘ starting quarterback when the regular season begins Sept. 11, Rex Grossman on Thursday night at least gave him a reason to consider thinking about maybe revisiting that decision. Grossman started Washington’s 34-31 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and completed 8 of 15 passes for 112 yards and a touchdown in four series against Baltimore’s first-string defense. Beck, who alternated with Grossman every two series through the third quarter, finished 6 of 10 for 108 yards, a touchdown and an interception. If Shanahan’s mind is made up, he didn’t say so after another competitive outing. “I’m going to evaluate them all the way through camp and all the way through the last preseason game, possibly up to the day before we play the Giants,” he said. “It all depends on if someone separates themselves. … So we’ve got a few more days of evaluation. As I said before, I feel very good about both quarterbacks. We can win with them.”
Source: Washington Times

RB Tim Hightower Continues to Impress in Washington
Tim Hightower. Not much else to say. He ripped off another big run, didn't fumble the ball and looks like he's moving up fantasy draft boards as the season approaches. Nine carries for 56 yards, no sign of injured Ryan Torain to challenge him and Roy Helu looks like a fun, speedy backup at this point. Hightower is a factor in the passing game as well, as a blocker and a receiver, and if he holds onto the ball, he's going to be an asset.
Source: Dan Graziano – ESPN.com

 

 

8/25/2011

WR Johnny Knox Making Push to Overtake Unimpressive Roy Williams
Johnny Knox hasn't been eliminated from the starting lineup just yet.
As Bears receiver coach Darryl Drake preached throughout training camp, Knox can compete for his starting job as newcomer Roy Williams won't be handed it for the regular season just yet. "What's happening right now has forced Johnny Knox to get better,'' Drake said Wednesday. "I'm proud of Johnny Knox. It has forced Johnny to be a better student of the game.
"What Roy has to understand is Johnny Knox will be in there if things don't get better, in a hurry.''
Source: Chicago Tribune

I've seen Knox fall into the final rounds, and I've scooped him up whenever I have the chance. He's the best receiving threat on this team, and he'll make it back into the lineup at some point. I will say that it's difficult to get out of the Martz doghouse...but clearly they have noticed improvement in Knox' route running ability this preseason...and truth be told: Roy Williams just doesn't get separation any more. If he's available to you in the final rounds, he's worth a flyer. 

WR Terrell Owens Still Months Away From Returning
While Terrell Owens waits for an NFL team to contact him, the 15-year veteran wide receiver has focused his attention toward an acting career.
Owens, who tore his anterior cruciate ligament and had surgery in early April, filmed an episode of the USA sitcom "Necessary Roughness" on Wednesday at the Georgia Dome. He said his knee is a couple months away from being completely healed and though no team has contacted him, he still expects to play this season. "I'm still not 100 percent to be able to go to a team and contribute," Owens told The Associated Press. "When I get to the point to where I'm comfortable and able to run around, I'll feel like those calls should be coming." Owens, 37, said he is not worried about skeptics who wonder if can still be a major NFL contributor. He said he is capable of making plays on the field, pointing out the 983 yards and nine touchdowns he had with the Cincinnati Bengals last season.
Source: Cincinnati Enquirer

Funny how his agent said a few weeks ago that Owens would be ready for the start of the season....he must have the same agent as Randy Moss. Obviously pass on Owens in your draft as it doesn't sound like he'll be back on the football field in 2011.

Browns Missing Six Starters tonight Including WR Mohamed Massaquoi, RB Peyton Hillis
Because of injuries the Browns' "dress rehearsal" game Thursday in Philadelphia will feature plenty of understudies, but the team still hopes to get a good idea where it's at as starters will get their last significant playing time of the preseason. The Browns' offense will be without receiver Mohamed Massaquoi (foot), guard Eric Steinbach (back) and running back Brandon Jackson (toe). Receiver Josh Cribbs (hamstring) and running back Peyton Hillis (sore back) might not play and tight end Evan Moore could be limited after suffering a mild concussion last week.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

We already know what to expect from these guys, we're looking for 2nd year RB Monterio Hardesty and rookie WR Greg Little in this game.

RB Jahvid Best Returns to Practice Wednesday
Running back Jahvid Best got back on the field for the Lions' practice on Wednesday, during which the players were dressed in helmets and shorts, but no pads. Detroit's second-year running back was held out of three straight practices as he recovered from concussion-like symptoms.
"He had fresh legs," head coach Jim Schwartz said. "He passed all his stuff. I know we have no real major concerns that he wouldn't pass, but we were able to get him out. It was a non-contact practice today so we were able to get him out and running around, and he looked good."
Source: MLive.com

We updated ADP yesterday to reflect the most recent drafts conducted since August 15th (courtesy of myfantasyleague.com) and Best' ADP has moved up considerably. He is now a late 3 round selection....our software (assuming standard league scoring/12 team) is recommending him as a mid 3rd round selection.

TE Jermichael Finley Has Case of The Drops in Packers Camp
Prior to this season, you could probably count the number of drops Packers tight end Jermichael Finley had in training camp on a tuning fork. The guy has the best hands on the team by a wide margin, and when the ball is thrown his direction he attacks it with his large, soft mitts rather than lets someone get there first. That's why his two drops in practice Wednesday were so eye-opening. Not only does Finley rarely drop a ball, but this has been a continuing theme all summer long. To his credit, he's not in denial about it. "That’s the incredible part," Finley said after practice. "Me and my coach (tight ends coach Ben McAdoo) were talking about that on the way back to the locker room. I was like, 'I don’t know the last time I’ve missed two passes.'" "We were talking about it, and I was saying I’ve missed more passes this training camp than I ever have."
Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel

To quote one of the most popular sports interviews: "We're talking about practice. We're talking about practice. We're not talking about the game. We're talking about practice." Finley has caught close to 8 out of every 10 passes thrown his way the last 2 seasons. I've been able to grab Finley in the late 4th and early 5th rounds in PPR leagues...which is a steal based on the talent level and expected opportunity.

Dolphins Urge Rookie RB Daniel Thomas to Be More Physical
The common thinking for anyone with eyes who has seen Daniel Thomas run this preseason and training camp is that while he may become a good player down the road, the rookie still has to adjust to the NFL game. Thomas, you see, is a former quarterback. He made the transition to running back at Kansas State and now is making the transition to pro football. That's a lot of transitioning. So he has some learning to do.  He needs to be more physical.
He needs to run with more explosion. Thomas is getting encouragement to make his adjustments and improvements from those around him. After his first down run failed Friday, quarterback Chad Henne told him in the huddle to hit the hole harder on second down. And coach Tony Sparano apparently also suggested Thomas run a wee bit harder by getting on the player's case in practice. "Yeah he was," Thomas said. "He was just telling me I need to get it in there and to stop tippy-toeing and everything like that. It was true though."
Source: Miami Herald

The Dolphins were clearly not happy with Thomas' goal line situation in last week's preseason game. So much so that they went out and signed Larry Johnson as insurance. Thomas got shut down on three goal line carries against the Panthers first team D Line in the 1st quarter, but later came back and scored a TD from 4 yards out in the late 2nd quarter....Saturday's game, the 3rd preseason game, and probably his last showing before the season, will go a long way in determining his valuation on draft day.

TE Visanthe Shiancoe Sidelined with Hamstring Injury, Out For Saturday’s Game
Visanthe Shiancoe's return to practice was short-lived. Shiancoe injured his hamstring in the first week of Vikings training camp in Mankato. He returned to practice in pads in Tuesday's extended practice, but was back on the sidelines Wednesday. Vikings coach Leslie Frazier said Shiancoe hadn't had a drastic setback, but was sore. And the team, he said, is erring on the side of caution and will not play the veteran tight end in Saturday's preseason game against Dallas.
Source: Minneapolis Star-Tribune

Shiancoe has lost valuable preseason time with new QB Donovan McNabb, but don't give up on Shiancoe, as he will be part of the offensive game plan this season. Right now consider him as a late #2 TE, with top 12 potential.

Patriots’ Rookie RB Shane Vereen Returns to Practice on Wednesday
Rookie running back Shane Vereen, who has been sidelined with a hamstring injury sustained in just his second practice with the team in early August, returned to the practice field in full pads today.  Vereen, one of the team's second-round picks, adds a speed option to the team's running back corps.
Source: ESPN Boston

Vereen has lost attention thanks to the play of fellow rookie Stevan Ridley. Looks a lot like the situation last year between the rookie TEs Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski...when the lower seed rookie upstaged the higher seed draft selection. Who will emerge is a complete guess, as Bellichick has dumbfounded prognostication services like this one for a decade. Both are worth consideration, but the risk on either is only worth taking in deeper leagues.

WR Plaxico Burress Expected to Play Saturday Despite Back Soreness
Jets wide receiver Plaxico Burress said there's nothing to his lower back issue except for a bit of lingering soreness after going up for a catch Tuesday.
Rex Ryan said that Burress will likely play Saturday against the Giants, and will be re-evaluated after the individual period of practice this afternoon. If all is well, he'll be limited. Burress said he was not concerned. "I wouldn’t call it an injury, I’d say it’s a little sore," he said. "It’s not nothing that’s going to keep me out of practice. It’s football, getting banged up and bruised and different things, you have to expect these things, it’s not like walking into 7/11 and buying a Slurpee. It’s a little more physical than that."
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

As we said in the preseason, long layoffs always have implications. However, as an exercise physiologist once told me, typically an athlete's body becomes fine tuned after about 6 to 8 weeks of vigorous activity...as long as one of the ailments doesn't become debilitating. Some bumps along the way, but our risk/reward model puts Burress is just outside our top 30 right now.

No New Contract for RB Chris Johnson after Meeting with Titans
Chris Johnson and agent Joel Segal met with the Titans for the first time during the almost month-long holdout, and finally got a contract offer. They didn’t stick around to mull it over, however, with Johnson jetting back to Orlando, Fla., and Segal heading home. That left Titans General Manager Mike Reinfeldt to explain via press release that the two sides remain far apart.
“It was important for us to have a face-to-face meeting so that everyone could have a voice and understand the perspective of the other side,’’ Reinfeldt said. “I’m not sure there was any progress made, but I do think it was beneficial to meet. We were able to discuss several different elements of a potential contract, but there was no agreement on those topics. I do expect to have another conversation with Joel in the next day or so to discuss things further.”
Source: Nashville Tennessean

Initially I became agitated when Johnson scoffed at the Titans offered to make him the highest paid Running Back in the league. Since then I've changed my stance when his request for 3 years at $39 million came to light. When you consider what the league was paying first round rookies last season...and what other running backs are making (DeAngelo Williams 43mil over 5 years, 21M guaranteed!)...in my mind, CJ is worth double what Williams makes (Williams is part of a time share)...and in 3 years Johnson will still be at a productive age of 27...The Larry Fitz deal includes $50 million guaranteed, and if the contract runs to term he'll be 36 and will have made $120 million. Yo ucan make the argument that Johnson is just as important to this team as a Fitz is to the Cardinals. In football terms, a three year deal for $39 million (maybe $28 mil guaranteed) is a bargain for a truly elite player....IMHO.

QB Matt Hasselbeck, WR Kenny Britt Return to Titans’ Practice
The Titans welcomed back a handful of players to practice Wednesday following an off day. Returning to the field were middle linebacker Barrett Ruud, quarterback Matt Hasselbeck, wide receiver Kenny Britt, tackle Dave Stewart and defensive end Pannel Egboh. Hasselbeck said his tongue was still hurting after he bit it hard enough to draw blood after a hit against the Rams last Saturday: “The tongue heals quickly they say. (But) I need to find a good dentist, see if they’ve got any good tricks for me.” It’s still uncertain whether Britt will play Saturday against Chicago, as he’s not fully recovered from a hamstring/quad injury.
Source: Nashville Tennessean

Britt's value is truly dependant on the punishment the league levies on him. I'm guessing two games, as I expect a gentler Commissioner, after the player bad mouthing this off-season regarding his "overzealous" authority. Look for Britt's 6th round, 7th selection ADP to move up if the suspension is 2 games or less.

RB Steven Jackson to See More Goal Line Opportunities?
Play-calling tendencies near the goal line can determine how many scoring chances a running back gets in a season. Hank Garguilo of ESPN Stats & Information produced the following notes regarding how Josh McDaniels' hiring as the St. Louis Rams' offensive coordinator could affect goal-line chances for Steven Jackson: McDaniels' Denver Broncos ran 30 of 49 times (61.2 percent) on plays from the opponents' 3-yard line and closer. The league average was 64.4 percent for the games when McDaniels was head coach in Denver. The Rams ran the ball 18 of 43 times (41.9 percent) in these situations since 2009. Things to consider from football and fantasy perspectives. Sounds like the Rams' running backs might have additional opportunities near the goal line.
Source: Mike Sando – ESPN.com

I love this type of analysis, and in theory it really bodes well for the Rams running game...however what we don't read hear is that Steven Jackson is no longer the battering ram that he once was. Consider that his red zone success rate was only 5.8 in 2011...one of the worst in the league! In 2009, it was only 8.1...consider that top end running backs are successful about in about 20% of their red zone touches. Both Moreno and Buckhalter were in this zone (+25%) last season, hence the inclination to run by McDaniels. Maybe Josh has a superior goal line formation which lends itself to higher goal line success rates...that remains to be seen....but as it stands Jackson is too expensive to be taken in the middle 2nd round (as his ADP suggests).

WR Armanti Edwards Expected to Run Panthers’ Wildcat
The coaching staff has talked about how good Armanti Edwards has looked during the preseason, and he's noticeably more comfortable returning punts and catching passes. At some point, Edwards is likely to run the wildcat offense, something the Panthers have practiced.
Source: Charlotte Observer

Return man Armarti Edwards has been getting some buzz this preseason, and there's a good chance that we'll see the former quarterback (2nd round selection in the 2010 draft) lined up as a wide receiver at some point during the season. Right now, it's probably not worth a look in most fantasy circles.

LB Jon Beason Has Surgery on Injured Achilles
Panthers middle linebacker Jon Beason underwent surgery on his left foot Tuesday to address the Achilles tendinitis that has sidelined the three-time Pro Bowler throughout the preseason. Panthers coach Ron Rivera characterized the surgery as a "minor procedure that's going to set him back about a week." Beason, who signed a five-year, $52 million contract extension on the eve of training camp, has never missed a regular-season game -- a streak of 64 games. The Panthers are hopeful their defensive captain will be ready for the Sept. 11 opener at Arizona. "We're still hoping for the opener," Rivera said today. "It was to alleviate the discomfort. As he goes through the rehab portion of it these next few days, then we'll see how he is has he's running around." Source: Charlotte Observer

A potentially significant issue for the Panther defense, as Beason is their star athlete on defense. Defensive Co-ordinator Sean McDermott has installed a new scheme on defense that was expected to make Beason the focal point of the the line backer group.
 

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Within the Numbers - Wide Receivers Part II

Contrary to popular belief, forecasting Wide Receivers by yards per reception is not a very accurate predictor of future success. Our research indicates that the WRs that accumulate multiple 100 yard games have a high correlation to continuing success in succeeding seasons. Another important indicator is schedule strength based on the opponents Passing Defense. 

According to our research, Wide Receivers are heavily affected by their schedule strength. Based on our Schedule Strength Fantasy Formula that considers yardage and TDs allowed, on average since 1960, there is a 74% probability in predicting the "direction" of player performances for the top 20 WRs and a 71% probability for the top 40. The "direction" is defined as the deviation from a players average weekly fantasy stats.  In our Matchup Matrix last season we predicted the weekly directional fantasy points for 73% of the top 20 WRs, and 71% of the top 40. As an example how the Match Matrix works, last year WR Greg Jennings faced the Jets (a great pass defense) in week 8, and as predicted in our weekly directional Matchup Matrix, he was unable to produce above his average weekly fantasy stats. Although the directional guidance may sound non intuitive, it can be a vital tool in setting your lineup every week. The relative severity of each match up is gauged on a scale of 2 to 10, with 10 being the most favorable match up.   

Subscribers are privy to our individual schedule strength matrix which covers every player and is forecast for the entire player's season...making trading and lineup decisions to be a much more educated approach. 

The grid below arguably lists the most relevant stats attributed to Wide Receivers: Projected 100 receiving yard games (100+) and projected total TDs. Also included are Targeted Passes from 2010 (passes intended for the receiver) and Red Zone TD conversion rates (Touchdowns from the Red Zone Touches). Highlighted in Blue are conversion rates that are considered above average, highlighted in red are conversion rates that are not considered favorable. NFL Teams tend to heavily weigh these percentages when constructing plays within the red zone.

Calvin Johnson, Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks, Austin Miles, Dwayne Bowe, Dez Bryant, Vincent Jackson, Kenny Britt, Steve Johnson, Chad Ocho Cinco, & Hines Ward all had very favorable red zone ratios in 2010 (receptions within the opponents 20 yard line that also accounted for a TD). Logic would dictate that these players will be used more often in Red Zone situations in 2011. And we've accounted for this in our projections for these players.

 Next we consider the Schedule Strength  (based on a number of opponent factors including passing yardage allowed & passng TD's allowed) that each player faced during the last 2 years. PPG change (points per game) is the difference in fantasy points per game (+/-) attained during the 2010 season verses the 2009 season. The reasoning behind this calculation is to gauge how the player produced given a lighter or heavier schedule. Players who faced an easier schedule and produced less points per game during the season raises a red flag. The last 3 columns represent the level of difficulty based on each game's defensive passing unit that these WRs will face in 2011 (The number listed is the number of games that we forecast as either: a Difficult, Neutral, or Easy game).  An accumulation of excessively "Difficult" games are highlighted in Red,  while an accumulation of excessively "Easy" games are highlighted in Blue.   Using this analysis we can presume the WRs that will have a good chance to match or exceed last season totals and which will face an uphill battle.

Below is a peak of look at 8 receivers and their schedule expectations.

See the complete Within the numbers series in the member Draft Day section.

 

 

8/23/2011

Collins, Kerry - IND /QB:  In a move that is meant to protect against the uncertainty of Peyton Manning's recovery, Kerry Collins comes out of retirement to join Colts. Obviously Kerry is not someone that should be on a fantasy manager's radar, but it does provide some security for those looking at the Colts' wide receivers in the coming days of their draft. Collins is still a capable replacement that can get these guys the ball. Our stance hasn't changed here, even if Manning is out 1-2 games, his draft day stock in the 4th and possibly 5th round, makes him an undervalued candidate.

Ringer,Javon - TEN/RB: According to the Tennessean, Ringer's injured hip is improving. The team is hoping to get him back for Saturday's preseason tilt against the Bears. Ringer suffered the hip injury during last weekend's preseason game against the Vikings. The Titans open the season in Jacksonville on September 11. Ringer is expected to be the backup to holdout Chris Johnson, who's meeting with Titans officials today in an effort to end his holdout. If you draft Johnson, you must draft Ringer late as a handcuff. If Johnson's stalemate persists into the regular season, then you move Ringer up your draft board. We'll keep a close eye on the Johnson contract mess.

Best,Jahvid - DET/RB: According to the team's website, Best was held out of practice for a second straight day with a concussion. The team is being very cautious with Best and will not rush him back even though he has been medically cleared to play. Best suffered a bad concussion in college at California. With Mikel Leshoure already out for the season, Best figures to be the main back this season for Detroit. Best figures to a #2 RB and a good pick in PPR leagues. The Lions play the Patriots next in preseason action on Saturday. Best may be held out of that game but should be ready for the season opener at Tampa Bay on September 11.

Barber III,Marion - CHI/RB: Judging by what we saw during the Giants-Bears Monday night game, it looks like Barber still has something left. Barber lead the team in rushing with 13 carries for 49 yards. He also added 5 catches for 31 yards. Barber ran with a burst and was physical. Keep in mind that Chicago's offensive line is not very good and Matt Forte is still the team's #1 back. Barber could get a look in goal line situations. Unless Forte gets injured, it might be a good idea to avoid Barber in your upcoming draft unless it's late in the draft in deeper leagues.

Forte,Matt - CHI/RB: According to the Chicago Sun-Times, Forte and the Bears are still a work in progress in terms of the running game. During Monday night's game against the Giants, Forte had just 4 carries for 7 yards, but he also hauled in a 42-yard reception. The Bears offensive line did a better job in pass protection this week, but the run-blocking leaves something to be desired. Last season, Forte had more than 1,000 yards and 6 TD runs to go along with 51 receptions. He may be hard pressed to surpass those numbers unless the offensive line improves. Forte figures to be a #2 RB/flex option in your upcoming draft, especially in PPR leagues.

Jones-Drew,Maurice - JAC/RB: According to the team's website, Jones-Drew was back on the practice field with the first team on Tuesday for the Jaguars. Head coach Jack Del Rio is being very cautious with the team's best player. Jones-Drew has not played yet in the preseason and Del Rio says he won't play Saturday against the Bills. The team says he will play during the preseason finale on September 1st against St. Louis. Jones-Drew has been bothered by a knee injury in recent years and that has cut into his production. He averaged 11 TD runs over his last three years but had just 5 last season. The team is looking to keep him fresh for the regular season, which begins September 11 at home against Tennessee. Jones-Drew remains a late first-round pick but if you take him, make sure to grab Rashad Jennings as a handcuff.

Winslow,Kellen - TBB/TE: According to the team's website, Winslow is expected to play in Saturday's preseason game against the Miami Dolphins in Tampa. Winslow has been held out of the first two preseason games as a precaution. Winslow has undergone 6 knee surgeries during the last several years but he did not have one during the most recent offseason. Coaches say he's having a terrific camp and could be poised for his biggest season yet. Winslow has 10 TD catches over his last two years with the Bucs and should be considered as a #1 fantasy tight end on draft day.

Williams,Mike - TBB/WR: Bucs head coach Raheem Morris is laying down the gauntlet to Mike Williams. Morris challenged Williams on Tuesday to get better by winning one-on-one matchups with defensive backs, beginning with this Saturday's preseason game against Miami. Last week, Williams had just 2 catches for 14 yards in the 31-14 preseason loss to the Patriots last week. Williams had a spectacular rookie season last year with nearly 1,000 yards and 11 TDs. We project Williams to be a strong #2 WR this season with the potential to be a #1 guy by season's end. Target him in the 4th or 5th round of your fantasy draft.

Wayne,Reggie - IND/WR: After sitting out the last several days because of "personal reasons", Wayne returned to practice on Tuesday for the Colts. That's according to the team's website. Wayne is in his contract year and wants a new deal. Team officials say his absence was not related to his contract. Wayne is hoping to cash in with a big year. However, Peyton Manning had not practiced at all and is questionable to start the season. If Manning isn't ready, Wayne's fantasy value would take an enormous hit. When Manning returns, Wayne would again become a #1 fantasy WR.

Sims-Walker,Mike - STL/WR: It's taking some time to gel, but Mike Sims-Walker is starting to feel more comfortable with quarterback Sam Bradford. According to the team's website, Sims-Walker says he and Bradford are "starting to get on the same page". Sims-Walker was slowed by a groin injury early in camp but that doesn't seem to be an issue anymore. Last season, Sims-Walker had 7 TD receptions with the Jaguars and he has a chance to duplicate those numbers this season with Bradford. The Rams are deep at receiver, but they're hoping that Sims-Walker emerges as the go-to guy. Target him in the mid-to-late rounds on draft day. He is a sleeper.

Thomas,Pierre - NOS/RB: Thomas is getting stronger and more confident during the preseason. According to the Times Picayune, Thomas estimates that he's "95% healthy" from his offseason ankle surgery. Thomas is having a solid preseason and says he will be 100% by the time the regular season begins September 8th at Green Bay. Problem is, the Saints moved up in the 1st round to draft Mark Ingram and they also signed Darren Sproles to be the 3rd down back. It looks like Thomas will split carries with Ingram and Ingram has been getting more looks at the goal line during the preseason.

Jackson,Fred - BUF/RB: It looks like there's a RB controversy in Buffalo. Jackson lashed out at team officials on Monday about possibly losing his starting job to C.J. Spiller. On Tuesday, Jackson backed off after a conversation with coaches. Head coach Chan Gailey reiterates that Jackson is still ahead of Spiller at this point. So far during the preseason, Jackson has outplayed Spiller. Jackson is averaging more than 7 yards per carry through the first two preseason games while Spiller has just 8 carries for 13 yards (1.6YPC). Jackson is the Bills RB you want on draft day but he's nothing more than a #3RB. The Bills offensive line remains an unsettled unit and will likely struggle opening holes in the running game.

Campbell,Jason - OAK/QB: According to the team's website, Raiders quarterback Jason Campbell was back on the practice field Tuesday. Campbell suffered a blow to the head during their preseason clash with the Niners over the weekend. Campbell sat out practice Monday as a precaution and passed the necessary concussion tests before he was cleared to return. The Raiders are hoping to push the ball down the field with Campbell this season. Last year, Campbell threw 13 TD passes in 13 games. At this point, he is nothing more than a bye week replacement in 10-team leagues and a reserve option in deeper leagues.

Collie,Austin - IND/WR: According to the Indianapolis Star, Collie sat out practice Tuesday with a foot injury. It's the latest in a long line of injuries surrounding Collie. Last season, Collie was the victim of multiple concussions which caused him to miss 8 games. When he's on the field, he's a very productive player. Collie had 8 TD catches in 8 games in 2010. Plus, the status of QB Peyton Manning is up in the air. If Collie is healthy, he can once again be a fantasy force. We'll monitor his status but right now, don't reach for him in your draft before round 10.

Gore,Frank - SFO/RB: Gore is hoping to get a contract extension before the season begins and he may very well get it. Niners GM Trent Baalke told Sirius/XM NFL radio that he wants to make Gore "a 49er for life". Gore has not been happy with the lack of progress on a new deal. Gore is seeking a deal comparable to the one signed by Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams, who just signed a 5-year deal worth $43-million. The team is concerned with Gore's penchant for injuries and so are fantasy players. Gore staged a brief holdout to begin camp but came in shortly after. If Gore doesn't get a deal before the season, he will be motivated to put up huge numbers. We still like him as a low-end #1 but is better suited as a great #2 back.

Williams, Kevin - MIN/DL: The "Starcaps" situation appears to be nearing an end. According to the St. Paul Pioneer Press, Vikings DT Kevin Williams will be suspended just two games in relation to the Starcaps case. Williams was suspended back in 2008 for testing positive for banned substance that was found inside Starcaps. Williams and 3 other NFL players argued that the substance bumetanide was not listed on the label. After years of court procedures, Williams will get a 2-game suspension. However, Williams won't be disciplined before the season opener on September 11th against the Chargers.

Giants, New York - NYG/D: The hits just keep on coming for the NY Giants defense. Cornerback Terrell Thomas was lost for the season Monday night with a torn ACL. Thomas suffered the injury against the Bears in preseason action. Thomas recorded 101 tackles, 5 INTs and forced 4 fumbles last season. It's a terrible blow for Thomas and the Giants defense, who have been hit hard by the injury bug this preseason. Also during the game, the Giants lost DT Marvin Austin for the season with a torn pectoral muscle and cornerback Brian Witherspoon also suffered a torn ACL. That leaves the Giants extremely thin at cornerback. As a result, you may want to downgrade the Giants defense on your draft boards.

Garrard,David - JAC/QB: According to the team's website, it appears Garrard's hold on the starting job is safe....for now. Head coach Jack Del Rio says Garrard is the team's starting quarterback with rookie Blaine Gabbert the number-2 guy. Gabbert was the 10th overall selection in this year's draft. Both QBs have not been overly impressive so far this preseason. Garrard figures to be only a matchup type of QB and is not considered a great option in fantasy. It's best to stay away from this quarterback mess.

Alexander,Danario - STL/WR: According to the team's website, Alexander was back at practice Tuesday for the Rams. The second year man was out of practice Monday with a knee injury. Alexander had an MRI on his left knee, which swelled up on him. The Rams are excited about Alexander's potential in Josh McDaniels' new offense, which will emphasize the passing skills of QB Sam Bradford. He may be worth a flier in deeper leagues late in the draft. We'll keep an eye on his progress

Greene,Shonn - NYJ/RB: According to the NY Daily News, Greene is ready to practice again after sitting out the last few days with a foot problem. Greene says he was plagued by a skin infection which had the team concerned. The problem is now under control. The Jets play the Giants in their annual preseason clash on Saturday and Greene will play. This shouldn't change your view on Greene. We look at him as a #2 back with a chance for a breakout season behind a very good Jets offensive line.

Hillis,Peyton - CLE/RB: According to the team's official website, Hillis sat out practice Tuesday with a ailing back. Head coach Pat Shurmur says Hillis has been bothered by a sore back but says it's not a big issue. Montario Hardesty took the first team reps at running back for the Browns. Hillis was seen riding a stationary bike yesterday. Fantasy owners may be concerned with the fact that Hillis missed some time early in camp with a hamstring injury. It's not known if Hillis will play in the team's preseason game against the Eagles on Thursday. Keep an eye on these ailments but they're not considered serious. We still view Hillis as #2 back.

Rice,Ray - BAL/RB: More good news if you're a Rice owner or if you're thinking about taking him in your upcoming fantasy draft. The Ravens beefed up their offensive line Tuesday with the signing of former Vikings Pro Bowl left tackle Bryant McKinnie. The Vikes cut McKinnie after he showed up to camp overweight and out of shape. If McKinnie gets up to speed, he could be a valuable addition to an already steady Ravens O-Line. Michael Oher is the starter right now at LT so this gives them better depth. Rice figures to be a high top-5 pick, especially in PPR leagues.

Johnson,Chris - TEN/RB: Perhaps some light at the end of the tunnel regarding the contract impasse between CJ2K and the Titans. Johnson tweeted on Tuesday that he's flying to Nashville to meet with team officials on Wednesday. Johnson is looking for a lucrative long term deal with a hefty signing bonus. He has 2 years remaining on his current deal. Johnson lives in Orlando and has been working out on his own to get ready and is said to be in good shape. There is some doubt as to whether the Titans will give Johnson the type of money he's looking for. We'll keep a close eye on this situation. If you have a top-5 pick this week in your fantasy draft, monitor this situation and be prepared in case Johnson drops to 3,4 or 5. We recommend that you take him because the holdout may not last too much longer.

Jacobs,Brandon - NYG/RB: The big bruiser certainly made the most of his playing time during Monday night's preseason win over the Bears. Jacobs had 6 carries for 48 yards, including an 18-yard TD run. Jacobs averaged 8 yards per carry on the evening and outplayed starter Ahmad Bradshaw. The Giants say they would like to give Jacobs more carries this season and that could mean more looks at the goal line. Last season, Jacobs averaged 5.6 YPC on 147 carries and 9 TDs. He has a chance for double-digit TDs if he gets around 200 carries this season. We have Jacobs rated as a strong #3 back with the potential to be a #2 should Bradshaw go down. He would also be valuable in TD only leagues.

Bennett,Earl - CHI/WR: Bennett looked good in Monday night's preseason game against the Giants. Bennett came back from injury to put up 3 catches for 58 yards. He was also targeted 5 times by Jay Cutler, his old college roommate. It's evident that Bennett has Cutler's trust and it could pay off during the regular season. Bennett is locked in a battle for playing time with Devin Hester, Roy Williams and Johnny Knox. If Bennett continues to impress, the Bears will have no choice but to play him. At this point, he's only a late-round possibility.

Williams,Roy - CHI/WR: Williams is not off to a good start with his new team. So far, Williams has zero catches in two preseason games. He also had a bad drop in Monday night's loss to the Giants. To make matters worse, Williams reported camp in bad shape. Williams brushed it off by saying he will be in shape by the time the team opens the regular season at home against the Falcons. Even though he's comfortable in Mike Martz's system, Williams has looked lousy so far and is not in football shape. Plus, he's clearly behind Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox. It may be best to avoid him during your upcoming draft.

Today's analysis was provided by Fantistics Tom Krasniqi. You can listen to Tom and Drew Dinkmeyer tonight live on our Fantistics Fantasy Football Blog Talk Radio show at 8PM EST...tune in!  - Anthony

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Within the Numbers - Wide Receivers

In our continuing series attempting to uncover what we feel are the most important statistical attributes among the various fantasy positions, we look at Wide Receivers today. 

Although they usually don't start going until the middle 2nd and 3rd rounds in most drafts, the top tier of Wide Receivers are a commodity in fantasy leagues. Having a top producer is invaluable as very few are within an elite class. However unlike other positions such as RBs and QBs there is not a lack of replacements among the middle of the group. Most of the 2nd and 3rd string WRs are just as good given the opportunity to play, thus it's not a bad strategy to wait before picking up the typical WR in your draft in favor of a starting RB or star QB in the early middle rounds. 

Wide Receivers DO NOT offer significant stability. Since 2002 less than 50% of Wide Receivers have come within a 20% tolerance of their previous season's fantasy points. Last year only 8 of the top 20 WR failed to come within 20% of their previous season totals! Although wide receivers do offer more predictability because of their health factor, receivers are highly reliant on someone else (the QB), and are ranked accordingly in our projections software.

Part II coming tomorrow: The influence of Strength of Schedule on WRs

See the complete Within the numbers series in the member Draft Day section.

8/22/2011

Roster Shakeup Should Lead to More Big Plays for RB Ray Rice
A lack of big plays in 2010 prompted the Ravens to overhaul their passing attack (again) this offseason. They cut ties with veterans Derrick Mason, Todd Heap and T.J. Houshmandazeh; brought in speedy veteran wide receiver Lee Evans; drafted a pair of rookie wideouts in Torrey Smith and Tandon Doss; and went with youth at tight end, where second-year players Ed Dickson and Ed Pitta have both spent time with the first-team offense.
But the absence of explosiveness wasn’t limited to the passing game. Ray Rice, the team’s biggest home-run hitter in the 2009 season, had trouble breaking the big one in 2010. He had one run longer than 30 yards (a 50-yarder against the Saints) and his longest touchdown run was 14 yards (in the divisional round loss to the Steelers). His yards-per-carry average dipped from 5.3 in his Pro Bowl season to a career-low 4.0 last season.
The Ravens hope their revamped receiving corps will result in longer completions from quarterback Joe Flacco and more points on the scoreboard. But if Friday night’s preseason win over the Chiefs is any indication, the acquisition of Pro Bowl fullback Vonta Leach should mean more big plays in the running game, too.
Source: Baltimore Sun

The last sentence in the news clipping is the most consequential, the addition of Vonte Leach can only be viewed as a positive...as it will give Rice the opportunity to potentially be the goal line back. Last season, Rice had a below average 11.3 Red Zone success rate. Most significantly Rice didn't have many opportunities to break free last season (ranked 19th in big play run >10 - 23).

RB Fred Jackson Getting Frustrated with Bills
Fred Jackson has been productive for several years, which explains why he's losing his patience amid feelings he's in limbo with the Bills. How many times does he need to prove he's a No. 1 running back? How many times will they tinker with him on the depth chart for reasons not entirely clear? What will it take to gain their respect? The latest jolt came last Thursday, when he was told that former first-round pick C.J. Spiller would be starting in front of him against the Denver Broncos in the second preseason game. Jackson wasn't on the bench for long Saturday, but he was still angry and confused about the decision after practice Monday. "I was shocked," Jackson said. "I feel like a No. 1 back, and I should be treated like one. As far as what's going on, you would have to ask them. I'm going to come out here and compete. I feel like I have been competing. I feel like I have done everything I can. It's been like that for two or three years, and nothing has changed."
Source: Buffalo News

Jackson finished the season as the 21st most productive fantasy runningback last season. He's one of those guys that probably better to pass up on until the latter rounds in shallower leagues. CJ Spiller is the guy that was supposed to turn this franchise around and take over as the #2 tailback...but that hasn't happened. Spiller can be explosive in open space...but that open space hasn't materialized for two reasons. 1. The Bills OL is below average (better than it was though), and 2. teams have been stacking the box against the run...this will especially be an issue now that deep threat Lee Evans is gone. Hence although CJ Spiller remains a home run threat...the Bills haven't figured out how to make that happen. Could it happen, yes (and it did for Darren McFadden)...but right now you have to cap Spiller's draft status as a late 7th selection, early 8th round selection...and hope to catch lighting in a bottle.

WR Steve Smith Working Overtime to Catch-Up After Injury
Practice had ended Monday afternoon, but Panthers receiver Steve Smith remained. Along with Wallace Wright and Legedu Naanee, Smith stayed after the workout to catch passes from rookie quarterback Cam Newton.
They ran short routes. They ran longer routes. They ran toward the Panthers' Thursday night exhibition in Cincinnati and beyond. For Smith, the Bengals game will be his first action of the preseason after hurting his left hand two weeks ago. He had the stitches removed last weekend from the torn area between two fingers and will wear a protective pad inside his receiving glove to help prevent a recurrence of the injury.
Source: Charlotte Observer

Smith went from a 1400 yard season in 2008 to 554 yards in 2010. We expect an uptick in Smith's performance, but it's difficult to envision anything beyond 850-900 yards this season. Essentially it's up to Cam Newton...and the results have been mixed so far.

WR Mohamed Massaquoi Should Return Soon, May Not See Preseason Action
Receiver Mohamed Massaquoi (foot) assured fans he'll be back soon, but made no promises about playing in the preseason. "We have a great training staff here," he said. "Everything's on course. My foot is getting better. Everyday I'm doing a little bit more. I'm excited just to get back out there with my teammates." He said he hopes to do some running in the next few days and some cutting at the end of the week. But he might not see action until the opener Sept. 11.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Massaquoi will see some reduced coverage this season thanks to the presence of rookie Greg Little. Both could have a surprising season with Colt McCoy looking like he might take a step forward this season.  Here's what we had to say about Little in our rookie review:

Greg Little – Cleveland Browns (2^nd round/59^th overall – North Carolina)

Little missed the 2010 NCAA season due to eligibility issues which was a shame because he was expected to have a huge year.  In 2009, he caught 62 passes for 724 yards and five TDs.  Little has very good size at 6’2” and 220 lbs but does not have extraordinary speed as he ran a 4.56 x 40 at the combine.  What sets Little apart from the pack is his ball skills.  He also played basketball at UNC because of his great hands and jumping ability, which will both translate to the NFL quite well.  He is going to a Cleveland team in desperate need of a star wide receiver so he will be given many opportunities to achieve that.  Colt McCoy has looked sharp in preseason and Little himself has taken advantage of the injured status of Mohamed Massaquoi.  He will attempt to secure a starting position over Massaquoi and/or Brian Robiskie but should be no worse than a third WR.  Fantasy owners love his potential because he is consistently being chosen among the top five WRs in most dynasty drafts.  Due to the lack of proven WRs in Cleveland, Little may get scooped late in some nonkeeper drafts which is not unreasonable, but definitely a reach. - Jasbir Singh

RBs DeMarco Murray, Tashard Choice Expected Back Today
Felix Jones is clearly the Cowboys lead back entering this season.
Now, it's time to see who will be his primary backup. Third round pick DeMarco Murray (strained hamstring) and Tashard Choice (calf strain) are about to practice with the team for the first time in this training camp. Both players have been cleared to join the team in Tuesday's practice.
Source: Dallas Morning News

DeMarco Murray should be on your radar this preseason. Not only does he have the ability to be a top flight back, he'll be playing behind a running back (Jones) that has always shared playing time. Here's what we said about Murray this season:

Murray’s a very talented back that looks tremendous in pads. He posted the fastest 40-yard dash time of any RB at the combine (tied with Roy Helu) and at 6’0, 213 lbs, he looks like a thoroughbred gliding. He’s a tremendous pass-catcher out of the backfield and excelled in Oklahoma’s spread attack as a check-down and run option. Extremely productive as a college player, he did his best work in space. He doesn’t have great instincts as an inside runner and is often slow to make decisions when hitting holes. As a result his stock fell as a draft candidate because teams viewed him as more of a 3^rd down back. The Cowboys were considered deep at the RB position coming into the draft so the pick raised some eyebrows, but with Marion Barber out of town and some discontent in the organization with Tashard Choice, it appears Murray will get a shot to fulfill the 3^rd down role. He’s come into camp with a hamstring injury, so he’s a bit behind schedule but in PPR leagues, he’s a name to keep an eye on. If he can surpass Choice as the backup RB in the Cowboys offense, we’ve seen Felix Jones battle injuries before. Murray won’t be an effective inside runner in the NFL, but he could see brief spurts of value if Felix Jones battles injuries again and Murray is able to supplant Choice on the depth chart. - Drew Dinkmeyer

Broncos Officially Name Kyle Orton Starting QB
Head coach John Fox made official Monday what anyone who watched the Broncos training camp and the team's first two preseason games already knew: Kyle Orton is the team's starting quarterback. Fox said Orton will be under center in the team's Monday Night Football opener against Oakland on Sept. 12. "We've been working with him all camp. He's been with the one's," wide receiver Eddie Royal said of Orton. "I guess there's not really any surprise to us. It's nice to know who is going to be back there throwing you the ball on Day 1. We all have had confidence in Kyle since Day 1, so no surprise to us."
Source: Denver Post

Not a surprise, as Orton was getting the vast majority of first team snaps and has excelled in preseason action. We view Orton as a solid back end #1 QB. Orton averaged almost 20 fantasy points per game last season.

Colts’ Coach Says Little Regarding QB Peyton Manning’s Status
It was the first topic broached today and the one Indianapolis Colts fans can’t stop worrying about. But coach Jim Caldwell didn’t offer any new news about the status of injured quarterback Peyton Manning, who told a local television station Saturday night that his rehabilitation from neck surgery in May will prevent the passer from playing in a preseason game. “I think he laid out pretty well where he is,” Caldwell said in a news conference at the team’s West 56th Street complex. “He’s working extremely hard to try to get back as quickly as he possibly can. “We’ve kind of been watching things as they progress. So he’s going to work hard to try to get back and get ready and he’s doing everything he can to do so.”
Source: Indianapolis Star

For what it's worth, Manning's former coach Tony Dungy said that he would be surprised if Manning wasn't ready for the start of the season. As I've mentioned he's sliding to the 5th and 6th rounds in some drafts...a bargain.

RB Dexter McCluster Hopes Versatility Can Provide Offensive Spark
Dexter McCluster figures the talents of his teammates can make him only more valuable to the Chiefs. “Everybody brings something different to the table,” McCluster said. “They were a great running-back tandem last year; Jamaal with his speed and Thomas with his power. Throw a little jitterbug in there — and you never know what will happen.” That’s what the Chiefs were thinking when they made McCluster a running back. When training camp started, it didn’t look a if there would be much for McCluster to do, but he’s been staying busy, sometimes in the same backfield with either Jamaal Charles or Thomas Jones. “There’s a clear-cut vision for him right now,” coach Todd Haley said. “You saw some of that the other night. He made a number of plays, seven touches or so, that he made that I thought were kind of exciting, good things for us as a team and good things for him.
“I’m not thinking snaps so much as touches. Four or five runs, four or five catches (per game). How many snaps that takes, that doesn’t matter to me. This guy clearly in space is a hazard to the defense. He probably got a little worked up a little the other night. We didn’t throw to him a couple of times where he had touchdowns.”
Source: Kansas City Star

McCluster is the X factor...but there was too much inconsistency in his usage last season, which makes him a risk from a fantasy perspective. May not be draft-able in smaller leagues, but worth monitoring his progress early into the season.

RB Darren McFadden, WR Jacoby Ford Return to Practice Monday
According to the Oakland Tribune, "Time will tell if the Raiders are any better, but they got a lot faster Monday. Running back Darren McFadden and wide receiver Jacoby Ford, who accounted for 17 touchdowns last season and have missed the bulk of training camp and both exhibition games, were back on the practice field during a noncontact session. McFadden, who suffered a broken orbital bone in his left eye on Aug. 3, looked as if he had never been away, getting in a lot of work, exploding to the perimeter and hauling in one 45-yard pass over the shoulder from Trent Edwards against linebacker Quentin Groves. Ford, recovering from a broken left hand suffered July 30, also got in some work during team sessions, although less than McFadden, and had little trouble catching the ball. Whether McFadden plays in an exhibition game remains to be seen, as Hue Jackson might be reluctant to expose his most valuable offensive player to further injury."
Source: Oakland Tribune

McFadden had a breakout season last year averaging 17.4 yards per game and .84 Point per attempt. Defenses are going to focus on him this season, as they did in the 2nd half of last year, so we do expect a regression in his numbers...still a early 2nd round selection.

Raiders Select QB Terrelle Pryor in Supplemental Draft
The Raiders selected Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor in the third round of the NFL supplemental draft Monday, rolling the dice on a major talent whose NCAA violations helped lead to the dismissal of coach Jim Tressel and put the school on probation. The selection of Pryor means the Raiders will lose their third-round pick in the 2012 draft.
Source: Oakland Tribune

This was a decent gamble for the Raiders, as we noted a few days ago: Pryor is another athletic specimen that some are liking to Tarvaris Jackson. Yet some circles see him as a potential Wide Receiver....

WR Patrick Crayton to Miss 10-14 Days Following Surgery, Malcom Floyd Fine After Injury
While receivers Vincent Brown and Seyi Ajirotutu will return to the practice field Tuesday after injury layoffs, another pass catcher will be sidelined. Turner said eight-year veteran Patrick Crayton will have arthroscopic surgery to remove bone spurs in his ankle and will be out 10 to 14 days. Brown, the rookie from San Diego State, has been unavailable to practice fully since injuring his hamstring on the first day of camp. Turner said receiver Malcom Floyd (concussion) and safety Steve Gregory (neck) were “fine” after the injuries they suffered against the Cowboys.
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

Crayton won't be missed by Rivers with Floyd, Jackson, and up & coming rookie Vincent Brown now in the picture.

No More Concerns About RB Ryan Matthews’s Conditioning
The early training camp concerns about Ryan Mathews’ fitness are gone, especially after he rushed seven times for 35 yards, including a spectacular 15-yard touchdown, against Dallas. Norv Turner said Mathews had an “outstanding” game. “He’s going to get a chance to show he’s in great shape because he’s going to get opportunities,” Turner said. “I love what we’re doing. I love the combination of he and (Mike) Tolbert. “Ryan is making great progress in the passing game and in the protection process, the third-down stuff. He had four or five outstanding plays in the scrimmages in the third-down packages.”
Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

Tolbert will be in the picture, but Matthews is undervalued in most drafts I'm seeing.

49ers Coach Still Considers RB Frank Gore the Go-To Guy
Led by rookie Kendall Hunter, the 49ers' three backup tailbacks combined for two touchdowns and an impressive 220 rushing yards against the Raiders on Saturday. But coach Jim Harbaugh, leery of questions about starter Frank Gore's contract status, said that was no reason to remove Gore's long-standing status as the 49ers' "bell-cow" running back. "I see good things from our backs, but there's no bold statement agreeing with what you just said there," Harbaugh said on a conference call Sunday. "Frank's a tremendous player, but I also think the other backs we have are playing well, too.
Source: Sacramento Bee

It's kind of worrisome to hear the coach even address this, but he was obviously prodded for a response by reporters. Gore is unlikely to walk out of camp, and hopefully will play with a chip on his shoulder...but he'll likely be with a new team in 2012...

Rams WR Danario Alexander’s Knee OK after MRI, TE Michael Hoomanawanui Injures Calf
Wide receiver Danario Alexander was not at practice Monday for the St. Louis Rams. He experienced more problems with his left knee following the Tennessee game Saturday. He underwent an MRI exam on Monday, but the knee checked out OK with the MRI showing no further damage.  "It's not that anything happened," coach Steve Spagnuolo said. "It's just that it feels funny on him. We just want to make sure we're not dealing with anything serious, and put his mind at ease." Alexander, the former University of Missouri standout, has had five surgeries on the knee. Tight end Mike Hoomanawanui, just back from a concussion, suffered a strained calf in Monday's practice and left the field for further examination. "It may be significant, not sure," Spagnuolo said. "We're a little bit concerned there.
Source: St. Louis Post-Dispatch

Not good news...Alexander is one of those receivers that had the potential to take his game to another level. We're going to downgrade him as that "funny feeling" on a knee that has had 5 surgeries is never a good thing.  Hoomanawanui (not to be mispronounced as the Hawaiian state fish - Humuhumunukunukuapua) has taken a back seat this preseason to rookie TE Lance Kendricks...a receiving TE who is having an excellent preseason.

WR Kenny Britt to Meet with Roger Goodell Today Regarding Possible Suspension
Just prior to training camp, Titans Coach Mike Munchak called receiver Kenny Britt into his office to rehash an offseason of ugliness. Conventional wisdom said the first-year head coach would discipline Britt for a handful of run-ins with the law during the 4½-month NFL lockout, but instead he let his budding star off the hook. Munchak and Britt hope NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will do the same. Britt is scheduled to meet with Goodell in New York on Tuesday.
Source: Nashville Tennessean

Chances are there will be some type of suspension for Britt, while 4 would be extreme...2 games is likely.

TE Chris Cooley Expects to Be Ready for Regular Season Opener
Chris Cooley had to get the brace on his ailing left knee refitted Monday. The swelling has reduced so much since last week that it became too loose.
“I noticed today and was like, ‘Aw, sweet,’ ” he said. The Washington Redskins‘ star tight end believes his surgically-repaired knee finally is healing properly. He insisted he will play the regular-season opener against the New York Giants on Sept. 11. “As long as everything continues, I hope to be back in some capacity on the field next week,” he said Monday morning. “I can’t imagine not playing against the Giants.”
Source: Washington Times

There are many, many more middle of the road Tight Ends this season, and as such Cooley is not worth a draft selection at this stage. We recommend Fred Davis over Cooley at this point.

Giants’ Lose Starting CB Terrell Thomas with Torn ACL
The Giants suffered a major blow tonight when cornerback Terrell Thomas tore the ACL in his right knee with 30 seconds remaining of the first half of tonight's preseason game against the Chicago Bears. It's likely that Thomas is out for the season. Thomas, who was entering his third year as the starting cornerback, appeared poised for a breakout season. He was entering the final year of his contract and his teammates had praised him throughout training camp. The Giants have already lost first-round pick Prince Amukamara for two months and Bruce Johnson for the season. Aaron Ross now becomes a starter.
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

Oh and the bad news for my Giants, just got worse.  Ross was replaced during the 2009 season by Terrell Thomas. Ross was a major contributing factor to the Giants failure on defense that season, which allowed a poor 26.7 points per game, ranking 29th in the league....not good.

That's it for earthquake edition, stay safe and see you back here tomorrow! - Anthony

8/22/2011

A. Dalton 8/19 86  yards 2 INT 16.4
M. Sanchez 12/20 173 yards  2 TD 121.5
T. Romo 8/12 58 yards  1 TD 1 INT 70.8
P. Rivers 8/11 92 yards  1 TD 127.8

A. Peterson 6/16 rush 2.7 YPC
B. Leonard 5/16 rush 3.2 YPC 1 TD
C. Benson 7/14 rush 2.0 YPC
L. Tomlinson 9/16 rush 1.8 YPC
J. McKnight 7/36 rush 5.1 YPC
R. Mathews 7/35 rush 5.0 YPC 1 TD
M. Tolbert 5/16 rush 3.2 YPC
F. Jones 7/56 rush 8.0 YPC
J. Todman(SD) 5/27rush 5.4 YPC

Yesterday's Fantasy WRs Box Score
D. Keller 4/73 rec yards 5 targets
P. Burress 3/66 rec yards 1 TD 7 targets
S. Holmes 3/19 rec yards 1 TD 3 targets
A. Green(CIN) 1/8 rec yards 5 targets
J. Shipley 3/20 rec yards  4 targets
A. Caldwell 2/50 rec yards 4 targets
J. McKnight 2/7 rec yards 1 TD 2 targets
J. Kerley(NYJ) 1/5 rec yards 4 targets
V. Jackson 3/49 rec yards 4 targets
D. Harris(DAL) 0/0 rec yards 1 targets

Andy Dalton looks like he has the potential to be a good NFL QB, but this isn't going to be a Sam Bradford story...not this season. There's going to be lots of bumps along the way and this reasonably hurts the value of rookie WR AJ Green...which should mean that Jordan Shipley has the impact season we're projecting in PPR leagues.  Ryan Mathews and Felix Jones are two players that will be much better than last season....they are still moving up in our projections. The Jets WR Plaxico Burress was the highlight of the two Sunday Night games. We saw enough separation in his game for us to believe that he'll have a fantasy impact season....even if it's as a Red Zone target.

RB Michael Turner Ready to Improve on Injury Plagued 2011
Michael Turner is ready for another big year. He went out in the second game against Arizona last season with a groin injury. It nagged him all season long, but he still managed to rush for over 1,300 yards. Turner had offseason surgery and is running strong. While Jacksonville held him to 14 yards on seven carries, he shot out of the backfield like a rocket against Miami.
Source: Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Turner isn't getting any fantasy love this season as evidenced by his 3rd round ADP. Not only do the Falcons have better tools on offense this year, but as this article mentions Turner is healthy.

QB Cam Newton to Start Thursday, Will Play Three Quarters
Cam Newton will get another start, but Panthers coach Ron Rivera was not yet ready to name the No. 1 pick his Week 1 starter. Despite struggling last week at Miami, Newton will start and play about three quarters Thursday at Cincinnati. Rivera plans to treat this week as a mock game week, and wants to see how Newton handles it. “We've only gone through 31/2, 4 weeks of training camp,” Rivera said today. “So to rush into a decision would be kind of absurd.”
Source: Charlotte Observer

As we speculated last week, it's Newton's job to lose.

RB Jonathan Stewart Returns from Achilles Injury, Mike Goodson Still Out
Running back Jonathan Stewart returned from an Achilles injury, but tailback Mike Goodson is still out with his Achilles strain. Ron Rivera said Goodson's injury is not considered serious.
Source: Charlotte Observer

On draft day, I am personally trying to avoid the runningbacks situation in Carolina (and the software rankings reflects this), as this is a true time share without the benefit of a passing game.

Bears TE Kellen Davis Could Be Secret Weapon
Watching Bears quarterback Jay Cutler sail passes to tight end Kellen Davis 30-plus yards down the middle of the field became a regular occurrence during training camp. "I would like to think I'm always a deep threat," Davis said with a laugh. "A lot of the tight end routes in this offense are a lot deeper than your typical pro-style offense." It will be interesting to see if the Bears continue to use Davis as a deep threat once the regular season begins.
"He caught some long balls for us last year in some special situations," tight ends coach Mike DeBord said. "He's got really good speed; I mean, really good speed. When you get him locked up man-on-man, we feel like we can go to him."
Source: Chicago Tribune

More preseason smoke. They had a very good pass catching tight end in Greg Olsen, who they traded for a future third round selection...not buying it in the Martz offensive scheme.

Browns’ TE Evan Moore Diagnosed with Concussion, Status for Third Preseason Game Uncertain
Browns tight end Evan Moore suffered a mild concussion Friday night against the Lions and his status for Thursday's "dress rehearsal'' game in Philadelphia is uncertain. Moore was not at practice today, but tweeted: "I am 100% okay and I appreciate everyone's concern and support.'' The medical staff will be extra cautious with Moore, because he also suffered a concussion in week two last season.
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Moore had a big game last week...barring any setbacks he'll be ready for the season opener.

RB Montario Hardesty Ready for Debut, Unfazed by Last Years’ Injury
Montario Hardesty will play Thursday night against the Eagles, and has no reservations about testing his surgically-repaired knee. "Oh, no doubt about it, I'm ready to play in a game," the second-year running back said Sunday. "I don't even think about it. I've been getting full days of practice. I'm making good cuts, and finishing runs so I think everything is good."
Source: Cleveland Plain Dealer

Hardesty will compete for touches with starter Peyton Hillis, although Hardesty has upside...1st year returns from this type of knee injury have been spotty...and Hardesty has a penchant for injury. Here's what we said about Hardesty coming out of college last season:

College: Hardesty’s college career was littered with injuries. He blew out his knee in his true Freshman season and received a medical red-shirt. In 2007, he missed 4 games with an ankle injury, and in 2008 he was largely ineffective and missed 2 games with injury. He rebounded in his senior season playing through injuries and posting far and away his most productive season. After struggling to earn carries through his first 3 seasons, he became a workhorse, carrying the ball more than 20 times in 8 of 13 games and averaging nearly 24 touches/game.

NFL Outlook: Hardesty possesses prototypical NFL Size, speed, and strength. He really started moving up draft charts after a phenomenal combine that saw him finish Top 5 in every test except the 40 and bench press, where he finished 6^th. Suddenly the first 3 seasons of underwhelming production were ignored and NFL teams began focusing on his impressive senior season coupled with his magnificent combine. He certainly possesses the physical tools to be a succesful back in the NFL but there are question marks surrounding whether the productivity and durability will follow. He has the chance to be a solid lead back as he’s shown all around tools in both the running and passing game, but his career 4.3 YPC and 4.7 YPT (yards/touch) at the collegiate level brings some question marks.

Dynasty Outlook: Hardesty’s value in dynasty leagues simply comes down to whether you believe in his senior season at Tennessee. If you believe the production he looks like a solid prospect that can be a high-end RB2 as he contributes both in the passing and running game. If you don’t believe in the production, he could very easily be taking a back-seat to the talented Jerome Harrison. Hardesty will get every chance to prove himself as the Browns coaching staff will likely employ a run-heavy game-plan and they’ve always been hesitant to embrace incumbent Jerome Harrison. There’s also quite a bit of unknown when evaluating Hardesty’s future in terms of the surrounding cast around him. The Browns drafted Colt McCoy (after passing on a QB multiple times in the draft) signifying they may not be certain who their current QB of the future is. The rest of the offense is limited and doesn’t possess a lot of long-term upside. In addition, they’re in a division loaded with good front sevens that as defenses game-plan to stop the run. His upside is that of a high-end RB2, but I question whether he’ll get there. The durability issues coupled with a weak supporting cast and a legitimate challenger for carries make me nervous about investing a high dynasty pick in Hardesty.

WR Miles Austin Expected Back in Action This Week
Cowboys wide receiver Miles Austin and reserve defensive end Jason Hatcher did not play Sunday against the Chargers. Austin has been bothered by a minor hamstring injury he suffered last Tuesday while Hatcher has been sidelined since he strained his left big toe Thursday. Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said he expects Hatcher to return and Austin to work back in this week with the anticipation that they will be ready for the team's next preseason game against Minnesota on Saturday.
Source: Dallas Morning News

Austin averaged an impressive 2.3 Points per reception last season (non PPR), with five 100 yard games and 9 quality starts...and he did most of that without his #1 QB....not bad.

RB Felix Jones Continues Promising Preseason with Strong Showing in Sunday’s Game
One player has stood out in these first two pre-season games for the Cowboys. Felix Jones is clearly in regular season form. The running back picked up 56 yards on seven carries with an impressive display of outside quickness and power running between the tackles. He made defenders miss him in the backfield to turn losses into gains and picked up a block on a blitz that allowed quarterback Tony Romo to complete a pass to tight end Jason Witten. "I've never seen him more explosive or quicker than he has been in this camp,'' Romo said. "He has also taken it up a notch with his understanding of the game. "He has had one of the better camps here, and I am excited about the upcoming season for him.''
Source: Dallas Morning News

Look for Felix Jones to start moving up the fantasy draft lists as others will start catching on. This situation has been a benefit to those that have been using our software and drafting early. His 5th round ADP will be a thing of the past by this weekend.

Lions Playing It Safe with RB Jahvid Best After Concussion, Expected Back Soon
Lions running back Jahvid Best missed practice Sunday after suffering a concussion during the first series of Friday's preseason game in Cleveland.
"When he was originally on the sideline he was bell-rung and then he recovered pretty quickly," coach Jim Schwartz said Sunday when he was asked about Best. "Then he started to experience a little headache so we took him in (the locker room). "By the next day he was clearing up and I think that's a big thing. In my experience with guys that have been concussed, usually they finish the game and they feel fine right after the game, and the next day they come in and haven't slept and all the classic symptoms."
Schwartz said Best hasn't experienced any of those symptoms. "But we'll take it slow with him just based on his situation from a couple years ago and we'll just be very, very cautious with him," Schwartz said. "But we should have him back on the practice field soon."
Source: Detroit News

Best also had a concussion in college that cost him some action, so this is a bigger issue than most people realize. With promising rookie Mikel Leshore already lost for the season, the Lions don't have a capable backup to share the load with Best...or to replace him in case of injury. Mike Bell, Aaron Brown, Maurice Morris are all candidates, but none offer much upside.

Rookie WR Titus Young Returns to Practice
As birthday presents go, Titus Young will remember this one for a long time.
He turned 22 on Sunday and not only did his parents fly in to celebrate with him, he was finally able to return to the practice field. "Things were a little bit quicker than college, but I haven't been out competing against anybody, just myself, for a while," he said. "To get out against a high caliber of competition was definitely a wonderful feeling for me." Young, the Lions' second-round pick out of Boise State, injured his left hamstring on the second day of training camp. He tried to come back two weeks ago but tweaked it again and missed more practice time. Sunday was the first time he was able to participate in competitive drills.
Source: Detroit News

Here's what our Jasbir Singh said about Titus in our WR Rookie Review article:

Titus Young – Detroit Lions (2^nd round/44^th overall – Boise State)

College:  Young had a stellar four year career at BSU which ended with a career high 1,215 yards and nine TDs on 71 receptions.  He registered four 100-yard games including a season best eight catches for 164 yards and two TDs versus Fresno St.  He did not catch less than four passes in any game as a senior which included six or more catches in six games.  He actually nabbed a career high 79 receptions for 1,041 yards and 10 TDs as a junior.  A lot of his critics will mention the fantasy friendly offense of Boise State making Young’s numbers looking better than they really are which is a fair criticism, but there is no criticizing the great hands he displayed in college as well as his 4.43 speed.  Young can also return punts and kicks which Detroit will surely take advantage of.               

NFL Outlook:  Young does stand at a non-imposing 5’11”, 174 lbs, but he is tough as he did not miss a game his last two years of college.  He steps into a good Scott Linehan-led offense in Detroit if Matthew Stafford stays healthy – which is a big if.  While Shaun Hill is a very good backup, everyone’s value will take a hit if Stafford goes down.  Young stands behind Calvin Johnson and Nate Burleson on the WR depth chart and will be battling Rashied Davis and Maurice Stovall for the third WR spot.  Young has the inside track on the job but even if he wins it, he will be battling the aforementioned WRs as well as TE Brandon Pettigrew for catches.  There are comparisons being made between Young and Mike Wallace – speedy WRs who can make the big play and play the slot when necessary due to having great hands.  Fantistics projects 45 catches for 670 yards and four TDs – which represents numbers worthy of a fourth or fifth WR in nonkeeper leagues.        

Dynasty Outlook:  In the wide world of dynasty leagues, Young has usually been selected in the latter half of the second round.  Although he was the fourth WR drafted last April he is regularly being passed up by the likes of Torrey Smith, Leonard Hankerson and even Vincent Brown in some cases.  What that shows me is a lot of owners believe Young has a low ceiling and will be facing an uphill battle against his fellow Lions for catches.  His size is also a concern because the general thought about top WRs is they have to be a certain (6’4”, 230 lbs) size which you would think Wes Welker and Santonio Holmes would have dispelled already.  I believe Young will surprise by contributing sooner than most people think but he does have to break the small WR stereotype.

Colts Considering Options with QB Peyton Manning Possibly Missing Opener
Jim Irsay is at least thinking the unthinkable: his Indianapolis Colts without quarterback Peyton Manning for the Sept. 11 regular-season opener at Houston. The team owner also told The Indianapolis Star on Saturday evening that every option is in play if the May 23 surgery to repair a bulging disk in Manning's neck forces him to miss his first career start. That includes signing a veteran as a short-term fix if coach Jim Caldwell, general manager Chris Polian and vice chairman Bill Polian determine Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky aren't the answer. "It's always been something where we hope he can be ready, and we still hope,'' Irsay said. "But it's possible he won't.”
Source: Indianapolis Star

For early drafters, this is an opportunity to grab Manning in the 4th or 5th rounds. Even if he does miss a week or two...if you draft a capable #2 QB in the late rounds (and there are quite a few of them this season), then you'll get 1st round numbers from Manning when he returns.

RB Rashad Jennings, LB Clint Session Return From Concussions
Like most NFL teams these days, the Jaguars seem to be showing caution in dealing with concussions. RB Rashad Jennings and LB Clint Session suffered concussions in the first preseason game at New England and sat out the Atlanta game Saturday night. They returned to practice Sunday and both said they didn't suffer the kind of severe concussions that cause a player to be kept in a dark room. In the past, they might have been allowed to play against the Falcons, but the NFL is now taking concussions very seriously.
Source: Florida Times Union

Jennings has averaged 5.2 and 5.5 yards per carry in limited time over the last 2 seasons. He's a more than capable runningback if Jones-Drew is fully healthy (which he claims he is). He's worth a spec pick in deeper leagues and one of the very few handcuffs I suggest.

Injured WR Jonathan Baldwin Does Side Work in Practice Sunday
With his injured right thumb heavily wrapped, rookie Jonathan Baldwin worked with other injured players off to the side at Chiefs practice Sunday. Baldwin at one point played catch with fellow wide receiver Steve Breaston. Baldwin both caught the ball and tossed it left-handed. Baldwin was injured during a fight last week with running back Thomas Jones and didn’t accompany the Chiefs to Baltimore for last week’s preseason game against the Ravens.
Source: Kansas City Star

This injury sets Baldwin back...there is good reason to believe that he was on track to starting as the #2/#3 out of the gate...that might not happen now. Stay tuned....

Travis Beckum Intends to Play Big Role as Giants’ Starting TE
Travis Beckum will start at tight end for the Giants Monday night — but you many not notice he’s a tight end. Beckum weighs around 235 pounds, making him one of the NFL’s slighter at the position. Monday’s game against the Bears will be an important audition for Beckum, who takes over as No. 1 on the depth chart after Kevin Boss signed with the Raiders. The Giants are hoping they do not need to significantly alter their offense for Beckum, who missed last week with a hamstring injury and has 21 career catches in two seasons. “He’s disadvantaged because he weighs about 235 pounds,” said tight ends coach Mike Pope, who added Beckum works hard but “the laws of science come into play” when blocking a 290-pound defensive end.
Beckum, though, has the potential to be a superior pass catcher. General manager Jerry Reese noted that Boss caught 35 passes last season, an entirely attainable total for Beckum. And Beckum thinks the coaching staff will discover ways to use him — both as a receiver and a blocker.
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

Beckum caught 13 of the 18 passes intended for him...but that was when the opposition wasn't treating him as a receiving target. The other issue is his size and the punishment he'll take. For some reason NFL officials believe that tight ends are free game on vicious hits...maybe it's because they are blocking off the line, regardless tight ends take some of the biggest hits on the field of play without impunity...can Beckum hold up?  

WR Plaxico Burress Shows No Rust in Preseason Debut
The Jets’ 27-7 preseason victory against the Bengals Sunday night won’t count for the record books, but it counted for Plaxico Burress, whose 10-year NFL career was suspended during a 20-month prison sentence for illegal gun possession. For weeks he had boldly promised he would look nothing like a rusty 34-year-old — and, with three catches for 66 yards and a touchdown, he did not. Burress, who signed for $3.017 million three weeks ago, was delayed making his live game debut by a left ankle injury that Sunday night seemed to be in the past. Sanchez threw to his new target seven times in the two quarters the starters played.
Source: Newark Star-Ledger

As mentioned in the opening, Burress looked good last night....


WR Jeremy Maclin Unlikely To Return This Week, Plans to Play in Opener
Jeremy Maclin is still about "a week or so" away from returning to practice, coach Andy Reid said. Maclin did conditioning drills Saturday, though, and is close to his playing weight of 198 pounds, the receiver said.
"He looks strong," Eagles quarterback Michael Vick said. "He already knows the offense, so I think it's just about getting back into shape, and he'll gradually do that. In time, I think he'll be back to looking like the Jeremy we've seen of old." Maclin said there was "no doubt" he would be able to play the Rams in the opener. Coincidentally, the Eagles will travel to St. Louis, Maclin's hometown and where he was when he received the news that he was cancer-free.
Source: Philadelphia Inquirer

Maclin is still going in the late 4th round....a little rich.

WR Malcom Floyd Left Sunday’s Game with Concussion
San Diego Chargers wide receiver Malcolm Floyd left in the second quarter of a preseason game against the Dallas Cowboys because of a concussion.
Floyd made one catch for 18 yards before leaving the contest. He did not return to the field.
Source: The Sporting News

49ers, RB Frank Gore Approaching ‘Volatile’ Contract Situation?
Coach Jim Harbaugh has spoken optimistically about a deal that will keep Frank Gore on the 49ers beyond this season. "I'm confident we'll work out something fair, hopefully soon," Harbaugh said. But Pro Football Talk, citing a source with knowledge of the situation, wrote Sunday that Gore is looking for "DeAngelo Williams money." That means five years, $43 million with $21 million guaranteed. There is no way the 49ers are going to give Gore anything approaching that kind of money. The situation is described as "volatile," and Gore's agent, Drew Rosenhaus, could request a trade. Gore is still a great player, but the 49ers are reluctant to invest too much in his future. He is 28 years old, and he's played 16 games only once in his six NFL seasons.
Source: CSN Bay Area

The emergence of rookie Kendall Hunter behind the capable Anthony Dixon, makes this a precarious situation for the 49ers...they very well might hold fast and not offer that type of money...which is clouding the draft day value of Gore. I know that the Cardinals and Lions have a void...but the Cardinals just broke the bank on Fitzgerald...

RB Chris Johnson’s Contract Talks Making Little Progress
The Tennessee Titans still have not made an offer, even though general manager Mike Reinfeldt said he nearly two weeks ago was willing to make Chris Johnson the highest-paid running back in NFL history. Since that time, the sides still have not done any meaningful negotiating, and no offer has been forthcoming from the Titans to Johnson. Titans owner Bud Adams is fine with that stance, especially since Johnson's current contract has two more years to run, and the fact that Johnson has stayed away from camp since it opened on July 30. “I'm not gonna make any offer with the way he's acting. Life's too short,” Adams said. While it appears the Titans are standing firm in their stance, indications are that Johnson's camp has dug in their heels as well in their demands. The possibility of the stalemate lasting into the regular season is becoming more likely each day.
Source: Titans Insider

It looks like Johnson's either going to have to lower his demands, sit out, or hope to be traded. This situation is also starting to cloud the picture for yet  another stud runningback....

Safety LaRon Landry Unable to Return To Practice With Hamstring Injury
LaRon Landry’s practice uniform since training camp began has included a visor instead of a helmet. That was supposed to change Sunday, but it didn’t. Landry was scheduled to return to practice, his ailing left Achilles tendon sufficiently strengthened, but he remained on the physically-unable-to-perform list because he injured his hamstring while working out last week in Indianapolis, coach Mike Shanahan said. Shanahan wouldn’t say whether the setback jeopardizes Landry’s availability for the regular-season opener Sept. 11.
Source: Washington Times

Landry has a lot of IDP potential, but hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy. When healthy he rakes up big tackling numbers. On another note, we added in ADP indicators for IDPers this weekend. Remember to sort by FP for their projected rankings.

That's it for today folks, see you back here tomorrow! - Anthony

8/21/2011

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