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Hi Folks!
The Gridiron is starting to
heat up and another Football season is only a few short weeks away!
Before we take care of the 2003 season, we'd like to
reflect on the 2002 fantasy season. Judging by the survey results
sent after the conclusion of the season, it appears that a vast majority of
our subscribers
enjoyed another competitive and successful season.
While other fantasy services may be boasting
about the number of fantasy "experts" on staff.....that doesn't
necessarily translate to success. What this really means is their
consensus projections will mirror what the rest of the fantasy
community thinks.... which in a sense means that the final results will be
"average"....this is your advantage as a Fantistics
subscriber.
At Fantistics there is only one
"chef that stirs the pot" during the preseason. Statistician
Anthony A. Perri arduously pours over reams of statistical data while
combing through scouting and other intelligence reporting in his
attempt to produce one final outcome: Championship Draft Material.
Although sometimes an unlucky draw on draft day or an injury plagued season
stands in the way, the results almost always produce a competitive
outcome.
Now in our 5th season serving knowledgeable fantasy enthusiasts, we continue to produce a product that is
distinguishable from the rest of the field. This is not to say that
we don't also have a great supporting staff, but the principles that
constitute the player forecasting model and the drafting model (VAM) are
unabated. Using time and again tested formulas for forecasting
athletic performance, we continue to produce some of the most
compelling results in the sports community...at least results that
anyone is willing to publish.
One of the ways we measure success is comparing
what direction a player's performance took during the forecasting
season. We could sit here and tell you that we predicted exactly how
many TDs Kevan Barlow would score in 2002, but in essence projecting
any category exactly is pure luck. On the other hand, predicting that
Jeff
Garcia's production would diminish in 2002 verses his prior
season....was not. Sure we considered his age, supporting cast, his
career indicators, the system, and durability factors...but the key
element that led us to his downward projection was the downgrade
in the schedule that he would be facing. Looking in from last
preseason, our analysis indicated that Garcia was expected to face
one of the tougher passing defenses in 2002...and true to
expectation, he did struggle in these games. The prior season,
Garcia's weekly match up opponent's rated an A- in difficulty, while we
projected that he would be facing a much tougher opposition (D-) in 2002. Also going into 2002
we knew that many of the higher rated QBs had career seasons in 2001
(an overall historical plateau had been reached), which led us to
downgrade many of the QB player projections going into 2002...which
turned out to be a wise decision. Although we downgraded QB's like
Rich Gannon
going into the 2002 season, which we were wrong on, we still had him
ranked above the national consensus (we ranked him 6th, the
consensus was 8th), and many of the VAM faithful snatched him up
before the rest of the field did. We did our homework on injured
players like Jamal Lewis, while the rest of the fantasy
community ranked him at 25th among the top RBs, we ranked him
14th...a projection that came to fruition. Similar gutsy upward
projection calls where made on the likes of Tiki Barber, Clinton
Portis, & Deuce McAllister. There were many more success stories
at each position (see below), and some misses as well, for example
we failed see Priest Holmes coming. His 2001 season was a
career season for then 4 year veteran, and did not translate into
the success (prior to his late season injury) that he produced
during the 2002 season. His 4.8 yards per rush in 2001 looked like a
milestone for a runner that was averaging 4.5 in the 3 preceding
seasons, only to be shattered by the 5.2 he posted in
2002)...fortunately for our model, for every Priest Holmes there are
4 other guys that would have counted 2001 as their career season.
Below is an overall roundup of the 2002
forecasting season
which is typical of the forecasting success that we have achieved
since our inception. Our starting point in this analysis is the top
scoring position players from the previous season. Players who did
not have a starting job or did not play regularly in 2001 will not
appear in the analysis as they would have been an obvious and easy
"correct" pick.
As we have written in prior articles, the QB, RB, WR, & TE positions are the most predictable from a
statisticians toolbox. While the place kickers are a little more than a
guessing game and a major reason why they appear so low on the VAM
rankings.
Positions
which have a high
correlation historically with our projections
Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70%
correct
Running Backs:23 out of top 30 = 77%
correct
Wide Receivers: 54 out of top 72 = 75%
correct
Positions
which have a mixed
correlation historically with our projections
Tight Ends: 23 out of top 30 = 77% correct
Positions
which DO NOT have
a high correlation historically with our projections
Place Kickers:
17 out of the top 30 = 57%
correct
To View
the Detailed Projections Success/Failure for each position and
player, click here (PDF Document) |
