The analysis below measures fantasy points per game for the designated period. The focus of this analysis is to measure our ability in forecasting whether a player would have a better or worse fantasy season than the previous year. It assumes a generic fantasy scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD) We use Points per Game as it doesn't penalize us for injuries which would be out of a prognosticator's control. 

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A Look back at the 2007 Quarterback Projections - 76 % Success

	2006	2007		2007		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Manning,P	22.1	20.5	DOWN	19.7	DOWN
Palmer,C	18.2	19.0	UP	17.0	DOWN
Brees,D	19.1	18.2	DOWN	19.4	UP
Brady,T	16.2	18.1	UP	27.9	UP
Bulger,M	18.7	17.8	DOWN	8.4	DOWN
McNabb,D	23.2	17.5	DOWN	18.0	DOWN
Rivers,P	15.3	17.0	UP	13.8	DOWN
Kitna,J	17.4	16.7	DOWN	15.0	DOWN
Romo,T	12.8	16.0	UP	21.4	UP
Young,V	15.3	15.8	UP	12.5	DOWN
Roethlisberger,B	14.9	15.6	UP	19.8	UP
Leinart,M	13.7	15.6	UP	7.3	DOWN
Manning,E	14.0	15.5	UP	14.5	UP
Schaub,M	0.8	15.3	UP	8.5	UP
Favre,B	14.9	15.2	UP	18.2	UP
Hasselbeck,M	14.6	15.0	UP	18.5	UP
Green,T	10.4	14.9	UP	11.7	UP
Smith,A	15.2	14.9	DOWN	7.8	DOWN
Delhomme,J	14.4	14.8	UP	21.3	UP
Losman,J	13.8	14.7	UP	9.4	DOWN
Garcia,J	13.8	14.7	UP	14.1	UP
Cutler,J	15.6	14.7	DOWN	15.8	UP
Grossman,R	13.2	14.7	UP	9.4	DOWN
Campbell,J	13.0	14.0	UP	14.3	UP
Pennington,C	13.4	13.3	DOWN	13.3	DOWN
McNair,S	14.0	13.9	DOWN	9.8	DOWN
Jackson,T	9.3	13.8	UP	9.5	UP
Harrington,J	12.0	11.5	DOWN	7.9	DOWN
Huard,D	13.6	11.3	DOWN	11.9	DOWN
Garrard,D	10.6	11.0	UP	18.0	UP
Culpepper,D	14.0	9.1	DOWN	6.2	DOWN
McCown,J	0.7	8.9	UP	10.1	UP
Croyle,B	0.0	8.7	UP	8.4	UP
Carr,D	11.9	8.1	DOWN	6.6	DOWN
A Look back at the 2007 RunningBack Projections - 78 % Success
	2006	2007		2007		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Tomlinson,L	26.1	23.1	DOWN	19.2	DOWN
Jackson,S	20.6	20.6	UP	14.0	DOWN
Johnson,L	20.9	19.2	DOWN	12.3	DOWN
Gore,F	17.0	16.9	DOWN	12.7	DOWN
Alexander,S	13.6	16.6	UP	8.4	DOWN
Parker,W	16.8	15.7	DOWN	10.0	DOWN
Addai,J	11.8	14.4	UP	15.6	UP
Westbrook,B	17.2	14.0	DOWN	18.8	UP
Bush,R	11.2	13.5	UP	11.3	UP
Johnson,R	13.4	13.2	DOWN	7.7	DOWN
Maroney,L	9.7	13.2	UP	8.2	DOWN
McGahee,W	10.8	12.7	UP	12.8	UP
Jones-Drew,M	14.3	12.6	DOWN	11.4	DOWN
Henry,T	12.2	12.6	UP	9.1	DOWN
Portis,C	13.9	12.4	DOWN	14.7	UP
Brown,R	12.2	12.1	DOWN	8.1	DOWN
Benson,C	7.1	12.0	UP	9.5	UP
James,E	10.9	11.9	UP	11.6	UP
Jones,T	10.8	11.5	UP	9.1	DOWN
Peterson,A	0.0	10.9	UP	17.1	UP
Green,A	12.8	10.8	DOWN	8.4	DOWN
Norwood,J	6.1	10.7	UP	6.3	UP
Williams,C	7.5	10.6	UP	10.1	UP
Jacobs,B	7.4	10.5	UP	14.0	UP
Lynch,M	0.0	10.2	UP	13.6	UP
McAllister,D	12.4	10.2	DOWN	3.6	DOWN
Barber III,M	11.3	10.0	DOWN	12.3	UP
Lewis,J	11.2	9.9	DOWN	14.7	UP
Williams,D	7.2	9.9	UP	7.5	UP
Jackson,B	0.0	9.8	UP	5.1	UP
Taylor,C	12.4	9.6	DOWN	11.0	DOWN
Taylor,F	11.7	9.6	DOWN	10.4	DOWN
Jordan,L	6.3	9.5	UP	8.9	UP
Morency,V	4.8	9.4	UP	3.1	DOWN
Jones,J	9.2	9.0	DOWN	5.7	DOWN
Bell,T	9.7	8.8	DOWN	6.1	DOWN
Foster,D	8.9	8.5	DOWN	8.1	DOWN
Betts,L	11.9	8.1	DOWN	3.9	DOWN
Brown,C	3.2	8.0	UP	5.6	UP
Dunn,W	10.1	7.6	DOWN	7.5	DOWN
White,L	2.3	7.6	UP	10.3	UP
Droughns,R	8.4	7.2	DOWN	4.3	DOWN
Jones,K	14.1	6.9	DOWN	9.7	DOWN
Washington,L	7.3	6.6	DOWN	5.1	DOWN
Buckhalter,C	4.9	6.6	UP	4.9	UP
Peterson,A	1.6	6.0	UP	7.2	UP
Pittman,M	4.4	6.0	UP	4.8	UP
Leonard,B	0.0	5.9	UP	3.2	UP
Anderson,M	2.0	5.9	UP	1.5	DOWN
Faulk,K	4.4	5.8	UP	4.8	UP
A Look back at the 2007 Wide Receiver Projections - 77 % Success
	2006	2007		2007		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Smith,S	16.9	12.0	DOWN	12.6	DOWN
Fitzgerald,L	15.8	12.6	DOWN	8.2	DOWN
Moss,S	14.4	11.3	DOWN	8.8	DOWN
Johnson,C	12.6	13.1	UP	11.3	DOWN
Galloway,J	11.8	9.8	DOWN	9.3	DOWN
Harrison,M	11.7	12.4	UP	13.0	UP
Holt,T	11.7	12.5	UP	11.2	DOWN
Boldin,A	11.7	11.9	UP	9.2	DOWN
Chambers,C	11.7	11.4	DOWN	6.3	DOWN
Ward,H	11.8	10.5	DOWN	9.8	DOWN
Burress,P	10.9	9.7	DOWN	10.6	DOWN
Glenn,T	10.1	9.3	DOWN	8.9	DOWN
Driver,D	9.6	9.9	UP	11.2	UP
Houshmandzadeh,T	10.7	9.9	DOWN	11.6	UP
Moss,R	11.5	11.4	DOWN	5.6	DOWN
Smith,R	9.2	8.6	DOWN	4.3	DOWN
McCardell,K	10.4	7.8	DOWN	3.2	DOWN
Kennison,E	9.1	8.5	DOWN	7.4	DOWN
Stallworth,D	11.4	8.5	DOWN	8.5	DOWN
Wayne,R	8.5	9.8	UP	11.6	UP
Branch,D	9.3	4.0	DOWN	7.1	DOWN
Jurevicius,J	9.9	6.0	DOWN	5.2	DOWN
Bryant,A	8.9	9.3	UP	6.5	DOWN
Mason,D	7.8	10.0	UP	5.4	DOWN
Curtis,K	7.7	6.5	DOWN	4.5	DOWN
Porter,J	30.8	6.8	DOWN	0.5	DOWN
Johnson,K	7.5	6.9	DOWN	6.9	DOWN
Evans,L	7.5	9.3	UP	11.1	UP
Williams,R	7.3	10.2	UP	10.8	UP
Coles,L	7.2	8.5	UP	9.2	UP
Owens,T	7.1	12.1	UP	12.3	UP
Wilford,E	6.9	8.7	UP	4.0	DOWN
Toomer,A	13.8	8.8	DOWN	6.8	DOWN
Moulds,E	6.6	7.6	UP	3.9	DOWN
Lloyd,B	6.9	8.9	UP	2.4	DOWN
Muhammad,M	6.2	9.2	UP	7.3	UP
Bennett,D	6.1	7.9	UP	5.7	DOWN
Parker,E	6.4	5.3	DOWN	4.5	DOWN
Engram,B	13.7	5.8	DOWN	5.1	DOWN
Lelie,A	6.1	5.6	DOWN	3.3	DOWN
Booker,M	6.2	6.6	UP	8.0	UP
Givens,D	17.4	6.7	DOWN	2.1	DOWN
Taylor,T	5.3	5.8	UP	5.2	DOWN
McCareins,J	5.3	3.1	DOWN	2.5	DOWN
Johnson,A	5.1	10.8	UP	9.1	UP
Brown,R	5.1	8.7	UP	8.6	UP
Robinson,M	8.2	5.8	DOWN	6.2	DOWN
Chatman,A	27.3	3.5	DOWN	0.7	DOWN
Henry,C	6.0	5.6	DOWN	8.8	UP
Jones,M	5.6	6.9	UP	6.2	UP
Gabriel,D	4.9	7.3	UP	4.1	DOWN
Bradford,C	8.1	5.4	DOWN	1.8	DOWN
Bruce,I	4.4	7.1	UP	8.0	UP
Horn,J	7.1	9.4	UP	9.2	UP
Parker,S	4.4	5.6	UP	3.9	DOWN
Edwards,B	4.3	8.4	UP	7.8	UP
Jenkins,M	4.3	5.5	UP	5.4	UP
Randle,A	4.3	4.4	UP	4.6	UP
Clayton,M	4.3	7.2	UP	7.6	UP
Jackson,D	5.2	10.0	UP	9.7	UP
A Look back at the 2006 Tight End Projections - 90% Success
	2006	2007		2007		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Gates,A	10.6	10.4	DOWN	9.2	DOWN
Shockey,J	8.7	7.6	DOWN	7.0	DOWN
Heap,T	8.0	8.4	UP	7.0	DOWN
Cooley,C	7.4	6.4	DOWN	6.8	DOWN
Crumpler,A	7.4	7.8	UP	7.9	UP
Witten,J	7.0	7.5	UP	5.1	DOWN
Gonzalez,T	6.9	8.8	UP	8.0	UP
McMichael,R	5.5	6.5	UP	5.1	DOWN
Smith,L	5.4	5.6	UP	5.7	UP
Stevens,J	7.7	3.5	DOWN	4.3	DOWN
Miller,H	5.1	5.7	UP	4.3	DOWN
Troupe,B	7.7	4.6	DOWN	2.7	DOWN
Clark,D	6.1	5.1	DOWN	5.1	DOWN
Pollard,M	4.6	3.0	DOWN	0.7	DOWN
Watson,B	5.2	5.4	UP	6.3	UP
Wiggins,J	3.9	4.0	UP	2.8	DOWN
Heiden,S	3.6	2.9	DOWN	2.3	DOWN
Smith,A	3.5	4.6	UP	3.1	DOWN
Anderson,C	3.0	4.0	UP	2.5	DOWN
Putzier,J	3.4	2.9	DOWN	0.9	DOWN
Graham,D	3.5	3.4	DOWN	3.0	DOWN
Lee,D	2.7	1.7	DOWN	1.0	DOWN
Martin,D	3.6	2.3	DOWN	2.9	DOWN
Scaife,B	2.8	2.7	DOWN	4.0	UP
Fletcher,B	2.5	1.7	DOWN	2.0	DOWN
Clark,D	2.2	3.4	UP	6.2	UP
Baker,C	2.1	2.8	UP	3.4	UP
Bergen,A	2.4	2.5	UP	1.2	DOWN
Mangum,K	2.3	2.2	DOWN	1.6	DOWN
Gaines,M	1.8	1.5	DOWN	0.9	DOWN
Franks,B	1.7	4.1	UP	1.5	DOWN
Schobel,M	1.6	2.3	UP	2.1	UP
Wrighster,G	1.5	1.4	DOWN	3.3	UP
Alexander,S	1.4	2.0	UP	1.8	UP
Conwell,E	3.2	3.4	UP	1.7	DOWN
Brady,K	1.4	1.9	UP	0.2	DOWN
Wilcox,D	1.5	2.5	UP	2.5	UP
Royal,R	1.2	1.7	UP	2.5	UP
Manumaleuna,B	1.2	2.0	UP	1.7	UP
Utecht,B	1.2	1.2	UP	2.5	UP
Fauria,C	2.0	1.2	DOWN	0.2	DOWN
	2006	2007		2007		Projection
Player	Actual	Projection	Expected	Actual	Result	Direction
Rackers,N.	7.8	9.5	UP	7.3	DOWN
Graham,S.	7.8	8.9	UP	38.8	UP
Kasay,J.	7.3	8.8	UP	7.1	DOWN
Wilkins,J.	9.3	8.8	DOWN	110.0	UP
Mare,O.	6.9	8.7	UP	22.7	UP
Kaeding,N.	9.1	8.7	DOWN	9.6	UP
Gould,R.	9.7	8.6	DOWN	12.5	UP
Vinatieri,A.	7.6	8.6	UP	8.4	UP
Brown,J.	7.8	8.5	UP	69.5	UP
Gostkowski,S.	6.7	8.5	UP	10.1	UP
Scobee,J.	8.3	8.5	UP