 
|
|
Positions which
have a high correlation historically with our projections
Quarterbacks: 21 out of the top 30 = 70%
correct
Running Backs:23 out of top 30 = 77%
correct
Wide Receivers: 54 out of top 72 = 75%
correct
Tight Ends: 23 out of top 30 = 77% correct
Place Kickers:
17 out of the top 30 = 57%
correct
The analysis below
measures fantasy points per game for the assigned period. It assumes a generic fantasy
scoring league ( 1point for 10 yards rush/receiving, 1 point for 20 yards
passing, 6 points for rushing/receiving TD, 4 points for passing TD)
|
A Look back
at the 2002 RunningBack Projections -
77 % Success
| |
2001 |
2002 |
2002 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Faulk,M |
24.3 |
22.2 |
 |
14.9 |
|
 |
|
Holmes,P |
17.3 |
14.0 |
|
26.6 |
 |
 |
|
Green,A |
16.5 |
16.7 |
|
15.5 |
|
|
|
Alexander,S |
16.4 |
15.8 |
|
17.0 |
|
|
|
Martin,C |
15.5 |
15.0 |
|
11.7 |
|
|
|
Dillon,C |
14.5 |
12.9 |
|
12.7 |
|
|
|
Tomlinson,L |
13.8 |
14.7 |
|
19.2 |
|
|
|
Williams,R |
13.6 |
15.1 |
|
20.2 |
|
|
|
Smith,A |
13.3 |
11.7 |
|
10.7 |
|
|
|
Davis,S |
12.1 |
12.2 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
Hearst,G |
11.6 |
11.1 |
|
11.4 |
|
|
|
Thomas,A |
12.7 |
14.1 |
|
10.4 |
|
|
|
Barber,T |
12.0 |
12.8 |
|
16.5 |
|
|
|
Smith,L |
10.5 |
10.9 |
|
12.0 |
|
|
|
Mack,S |
10.3 |
6.5 |
|
7.0 |
|
|
|
Garner,C |
10.0 |
11.5 |
|
16.0 |
|
|
|
Alstott,M |
9.8 |
9.2 |
|
7.6 |
|
|
|
George,E |
9.5 |
13.0 |
|
14.1 |
|
|
|
Staley,D |
11.3 |
12.7 |
|
12.8 |
|
|
|
Bettis,J |
12.9 |
8.7 |
|
10.5 |
|
|
|
Pittman,M |
9.4 |
10.6 |
|
7.8 |
|
|
|
Dunn,W |
10.5 |
10.6 |
|
12.3 |
|
|
|
Smith,E |
9.4 |
10.2 |
|
8.5 |
|
|
|
White,J |
7.6 |
8.6 |
|
7.9 |
|
|
|
Dayne,R |
7.4 |
6.7 |
|
4.1 |
|
|
|
Henry,T |
8.8 |
9.3 |
|
16.2 |
|
|
|
Bennett,M |
8.4 |
9.6 |
|
12.5 |
|
|
|
Barlow,K |
7.1 |
8.3 |
|
7.9 |
|
|
|
Stewart,J |
9.5 |
11.1 |
|
12.2 |
|
|
|
James,E |
17.3 |
13.0 |
|
10.9 |
|
|
|
|
A Look back
at the 2002 Quarterback Projections - 70
% Success
| |
2001 |
2002 |
2002 |
Projection |
|
Player |
Actual |
Projection |
Expected |
Actual |
Result |
Direction |
|
Warner,K |
24.5 |
22.0 |
|
9.3 |
|
|
|
Garcia,J |
22.5 |
20.2 |
|
17.8 |
|
|
|
Manning,P |
21.9 |
20.8 |
|
19.2 |
|
|
|
Brooks,A |
21.1 |
18.3 |
|
18.4 |
|
|
|
Favre,B |
21.0 |
18.7 |
|
16.6 |
|
|
|
Gannon,R |
20.9 |
19.3 |
|
22.0 |
|
|
|
McNair,S |
21.5 |
18.6 |
|
18.1 |
|
|
|
McNabb,D |
21.5 |
20.2 |
|
25.2 |
|
|
|
Fiedler,J |
18.8 |
16.4 |
|
15.2 |
|
|
|
Stewart,K |
18.4 |
16.3 |
|
14.4 |
|
|
|
Green,T |
17.1 |
16.4 |
|
18.2 |
|
|
|
Collins,K |
| | |
