Shortly after having taken a career as
quantitative analyst in the early 1990's. I realized that there had
to be a formula to capture the optimal drafting strategy. The
variables had to be independent of chance and expectation and needed
to capture enough of a sample size to be considered valid. The
result was the first published strategy (1998) on the benefit of
Position Scarcity in Fantasy Sports. Although many have caught on
to this concept, the model has been refined since then to also include
the probability of prediction of each position.
The model was developed using a linear regression model. A model
designed to find the best fit given the specific constraints of each
unique league. One cannot reasonably argue that both scoring and the
variable of both the teams in your league and number of starters at
each position does not in some way dictate where certain players
should be valued/ranked.
That is what our position scarcity model called VAM does (Value
Above Mean). It quantifies the exact value of each position based on
your scoring parameters. This thus leads me to say it's not who to
draft, it's how to draft. There are points in every draft that
dictate where a Tier of positions should be triggered or drafted.
The Fantistics draft
day strategy has been described as the definitive concept
to winning on draft day. Value Above Mean (VAM) is a computation that measures a players' fantasy worth versus others at
their respective position/s. In other words, what we do is take the average fantasy values
for the typical number of fantasy starters at each position. This average serves as the
standard that we compare all others at that particular position by.
As an example,
if Player 1 is a Tight End and Player 2 is a Wide
Receiver and both have the same number of Fantasy Points (let's
say 200). Which of these players is more valuable?
Easy, in most cases it's the Tight End. Why? Because the average
Tight End scores considerably less points than the average Wide
Receiver in most scoring formats. Thus the replacement value of a
top tier Tight End is greater than the replacement value of a top
tier Wide Receiver. In other words there is a greater incremental
points difference between the top tier player and the mean
(average) player at that position. Thus since each league mandates
that there is be set number of players that must be started at
each position, there is a position scarcity that needs to be
accounted for. This is what the VAM theory does, it quantifies the
true value of each player in relation to other positions.
Considerations include the number of starters at each position and
To further the effectiveness of this concept, based on our
research, we assign probabilities based on the predictability of
the position categories. In a perfect world, we
compared this strategy against "simulation owners" who were set to draft
according to total fantasy points (TFP), and found VAM to be 22-30%
more effective tool than just drafting by total projected points. VAM is
most effective during the early rounds of the draft as evidenced by the graph below.
(We ran over 1,000 simulations, basing the incremental gain on the VAM strategy versus
employing a straight points drafting methodology through each draft pick.)
test the VAM draft strategy before your draft. Our latest
software allows you to run simulation drafts using the VAM
Strategy against virtual opponents using a ADP to make selections.
For the first time, subscribers can see how much more effective
our draft strategy is over typical drafting methods.