It's
all about "PAM"! - When I was
drafting this piece my wife saw this heading on the kitchen table and demanded "who
is PAM?".... "She's big but small, she's complex but simple, & she's just a
concept" I replied, as she laid the rolling pin down. "A Concept?", yes a
proven concept....
We have successfully used & recommended
this statistical concept (PAM) for years. Last year, we finally tested the concept using a
statistical software package (MatLab), and found it to be the best overall
drafting & trading strategy.We have termed it as "an essential
ingredient to winning a fantasy football league" (aside from a subscription to
Fantistics!).
PAM: Points Above Mean (or
Average) is a computation that measures a players' fantasy worth verses others at
their respective position/s. In other words, what we do is take the average fantasy values
for the typical number of fantasy starters at each position. This average serves as the
standard that we compare all others at that particular position by. In a perfect world, we
compared this strategy against "simulation owners" who were set to draft
according to total fantasy points (TFP), and found PAM to be a 25% more
effective tool than just drafting by total projected points. PAM is most
effective in the early rounds of the draft. After the top 80-90 players are
selected, you should start considering your needs & the total projected points. PAM
would work perfectly if we lived in a vacuum and our projected points turned out to be
100% accurate...of course we don't and they're not going to be. So before you
start to use our sortable PAM rankings & cheat sheets, we/you have to also consider
the following as disrupters to the system:
Ignore the Kickers &
Defenses: if your in a typical fantasy league (FG=3,4,5,6 points, PAT=1pt), skip
over the kickers (PAM or not) until the very last rounds, for two reasons: 1. they
probably produce much less in fantasy terms (points) then other position players in your
league & 2. projecting their stats is very difficult, last season the difference
between the top kickers and an average kicker was only 25 fantasy points! These position
players should wait until the end of your draft, and should be a secondary concern when
trading. Consider the same fate for defenses.
Wait to pickup the Tight Ends:
There are 2 major TE's this year and almost every year: Shannon Sharpe & Ben Coates,
after these two there's a drop-off, but is it really worth drafting these guys in the
second round just because they have a 50+ PAM? NOT! The major component that
separates these guys from the pack is 2-3 more touchdowns and 100-200 more
yards. They only score 100-110 fantasy points in a conventional scoring
league, while the WR next to them in the PAM, will score 200. Go with the WR (200), it's
more of a sure thing.
Bracket Players : The
optimal and most efficient method to use PAM would be to switch off PAM when the points
difference between the player you are considering and the next group of players at this
position is smaller then it is at the other positions. Let's paint a scenario for you: you
are in a 6 team league, it's your draft pick and the name on your PAM cheat sheet is a QB,
but there is a group of 7 QB's that are projected to only range 10 points (in fantasy
terms) between the best and the worst, now you look at the RB position and you only see 2
quality running backs left and the RB drop-off to your next round is 30 fantasy
points....this is the optimal time to use this "bracket theory". In essence, by
holding off on the QB, who's quality will be available in the next round, you gain in
incremental fantasy points. Similarly in a trading situation, it's makes
more sense to trade for a player who is "exclusive" based on PAM, verses one
who's fantasy numbers are lumped within many at his position.
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